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US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

bloomberg.com

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Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#11

Post by strangescript »

hombre_fatal wrote: post #7
charliebwrites wrote: post #4

My hot take: We’re already in a recession. We just use AI to justify doing all the same recession behaviors while making it sound like innovation - not hiring this year > AI is making us productive! - no wage growth > AI means we don’t need to raise salaries - layoffs > with AI we can do more with less people - spending less on offsites, work perks etc > we really need that budget for AI - not spending money on that…

I think that's mostly just HNers assuming AI like Claude Code is already penetrating the day to day work of the workforce. "If I use, then everyone is probably using it". Yet AI penetration is so low right now that it probably has zero role in the job market. And it keeps us distracted from talking about the real reasons behind job opening decline. That said, once AI ubiquity picks up within the next few years, we'll…

yes, AI isn't penetrating those fields with high job losses at all

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#13

Post by bpt3 »

charliebwrites wrote: post #4

My hot take: We’re already in a recession. We just use AI to justify doing all the same recession behaviors while making it sound like innovation - not hiring this year > AI is making us productive! - no wage growth > AI means we don’t need to raise salaries - layoffs > with AI we can do more with less people - spending less on offsites, work perks etc > we really need that budget for AI - not spending money on that…

Eh, layoffs also declined, consumer spending is up YoY, and we all know about the investments being made in AI that very well might be propping up the economy.

AI, when effective, is deflationary because it allows for similar productivity at a lower cost. That's what you're describing above, not a shadow recession that is being papered over by claims of AI use.

To my point: You could have replaced "AI" with "computing" for most of the last 50 years and been left with the same argument.

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#14

Post by master_crab »

strangescript wrote: post #11
hombre_fatal wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that's mostly just HNers assuming AI like Claude Code is already penetrating the day to day work of the workforce. "If I use, then everyone is probably using it". Yet AI penetration is so low right now that it probably has zero role in the job market. And it keeps us distracted from talking about the real reasons behind job opening decline. That said, once AI ubiquity picks up within the next few years, we'll…

yes, AI isn't penetrating those fields with high job losses at all

AI isn’t penetrating but all the money needed to invest in the economy has moved over. Maybe that’s also part of the problem

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#15

Post by candiddevmike »

charliebwrites wrote: post #4

My hot take: We’re already in a recession. We just use AI to justify doing all the same recession behaviors while making it sound like innovation - not hiring this year > AI is making us productive! - no wage growth > AI means we don’t need to raise salaries - layoffs > with AI we can do more with less people - spending less on offsites, work perks etc > we really need that budget for AI - not spending money on that…

My hotter take: we're in an economic death spiral. There isn't enough juice that can be squeezed short of mass wealth redistribution to reinvigorate the economy, and what is out there is locked up in stocks that don't translate to revenue. Slashing rates will just skyrocket prices and over inflate our monetary supply, and further tax cuts will only whittle away what's left of government services and social safety nets. Companies are going to start collapsing in a domino effect as liquidity dries up and contracts get cut.

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#16

Post by A4ET8a8uTh0_v2 »

hombre_fatal wrote: post #7
charliebwrites wrote: post #4

My hot take: We’re already in a recession. We just use AI to justify doing all the same recession behaviors while making it sound like innovation - not hiring this year > AI is making us productive! - no wage growth > AI means we don’t need to raise salaries - layoffs > with AI we can do more with less people - spending less on offsites, work perks etc > we really need that budget for AI - not spending money on that…

I think that's mostly just HNers assuming AI like Claude Code is already penetrating the day to day work of the workforce. "If I use, then everyone is probably using it". Yet AI penetration is so low right now that it probably has zero role in the job market. And it keeps us distracted from talking about the real reasons behind job opening decline. That said, once AI ubiquity picks up within the next few years, we'll…

Maybe. I am likely not a typical HNer, but my company actually has use of AI our 2026 goals. I am not guessing. I know majority of people in this company have those goals baked in. Now, can I suspect other like companies do the same? No. But even if they don't, it does not matter. Because the companies that don't allow AI, have people who use it anyway..

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#17

Post by [deleted] »

strangescript wrote: post #11
hombre_fatal wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that's mostly just HNers assuming AI like Claude Code is already penetrating the day to day work of the workforce. "If I use, then everyone is probably using it". Yet AI penetration is so low right now that it probably has zero role in the job market. And it keeps us distracted from talking about the real reasons behind job opening decline. That said, once AI ubiquity picks up within the next few years, we'll…

yes, AI isn't penetrating those fields with high job losses at all

[deleted]

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#18

Post by mbgerring »

It makes sense that you wouldn't hire in such an uncertain environment. We have a President using emergency powers to affect sweeping, unpredictable, consequential changes to the economy that can dramatically alter unit economics overnight and completely tank a previously viable business. Within this calendar year, the President's ability to do this may be upended by pending court cases, an election, or both. Following those potential changes, the breach of trust created by the previous chaos may mean that trade never returns to normal. I don't envy anyone trying to make long-term business decisions, like hiring, in such an environment.

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#19

Post by AnimalMuppet »

bt1a wrote: post #10
DetectDefect wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not necessary, this information is free: https://finviz.com/calendar/economic/detail/UNITEDSTAJOBOFF?... > Job openings in the US fell by 303,000 to 7.146 million in November 2025, the lowest since December 2020 and well below market expectations of 7.60 million. The number of job openings decreased in accommodation and food services (-148,000); transportation, warehousing, and utilities (-108,000); and wholesale tra…

transportation, warehousing, and utilities being a headlining loser here is the most striking.... perhaps?

Certainly sounds like canaries telling us the rest of the economy is not doing great. (Not warning us that it's going to have problems. Telling us it already does.)

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#20

Post by bpt3 »

DetectDefect wrote: post #8
charliebwrites wrote: post #4

My hot take: We’re already in a recession. We just use AI to justify doing all the same recession behaviors while making it sound like innovation - not hiring this year > AI is making us productive! - no wage growth > AI means we don’t need to raise salaries - layoffs > with AI we can do more with less people - spending less on offsites, work perks etc > we really need that budget for AI - not spending money on that…

Hot take? Half of the US is formally in recession already. https://fortune.com/2025/10/09/america-feels-recession-state... The economy is completely fucked and we are in a race to steal and horde all the data before people catch on.

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