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A prediction market user made $436k betting on Maduro's downfall

bbc.com

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Re: A prediction market user made $436k betting on Maduro's downfall

#101

Post by mellosouls »

Where's the evidence for this?

Note the lack of links and that all of these Maduro reports originate from X which is rampant with polymarket grifters claiming secret insights into how the big bets are made.

Perhaps somebody here can provide a Polymarket link (not screenshots) to the proof?

I'm not saying the BBC has been scammed here but the only link I've found to the alleged account 404s. Perhaps its been taken down by Polymarket?

Anyway for anybody new to this, even if this checks out please - as ever - be cautious about the claims of easy money.

Re: A prediction market user made $436k betting on Maduro's downfall

#102

Post by adt »

kelnos wrote: post #76
paulpauper wrote: post #6

It's technically not illegal if someone was able to observe the planes flying and place the bets accordingly. Public info is legal to trade on. But it's obviously also ripe for abuse. Any govt. employee can start trading on the side, 100% untraceable.

It's not illegal, period, because this isn't a regulated security. Prediction markets don't fall under these laws; in fact, insider trading is seen as a feature of these markets.

>It's not illegal, period, because

My editor just turned in her grave. And she's still alive.

Re: A prediction market user made $436k betting on Maduro's downfall

#103

Post by watwut »

p1dda wrote: post #97

From the BBC article: "Insider trading is illegal in the stock market" Not for members of the US Congress.

I think it genuinely does not matter whether it is legal or not. No one will prosecute them. Legal system was berarely capable of prosecuting rich people crimes and generally unwilling to do so. And the capable parts were dismantled last year.

It would take years to rebuild them. And even if they do by some miracle, next republican president will issue pardons like Trump did.

This sort of activity is illegal only in theory.

Re: A prediction market user made $436k betting on Maduro's downfall

#104

Post by tlb »

bjackman wrote: post #99
kqr wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, better synthesis of public information is also a way to win. Some people think of that as more fair. Another way to win is to use them for hedging exposure elsewhere. That also doesn't require inside information.

Why should we want prediction markets to be fair? I want them to reveal facts about the world. They only need to be fair inasmuch as it serves that goal. I don't think it wouldn serve that goal to forbid insider trading? (Why do we forbid insider trading in the stock market? Not because it's unfair. Because it makes the market worse at doing what we want it to do, which is funding the most productive enterprises).

Given that inside information makes prediction markets more accurate, why do you believe it doesn't make stock markets more accurate?

If, say, Enron insiders could've shorted their own stock, that would have improved accuracy and thereby diverted more funding to more productive enterprises.

I guess there could be second-order effects when insiders can actually change the outcome, which is why athletes aren't allowed to bet on their own games.

Re: A prediction market user made $436k betting on Maduro's downfall

#105

Post by dweinus »

bjackman wrote: post #99
kqr wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, better synthesis of public information is also a way to win. Some people think of that as more fair. Another way to win is to use them for hedging exposure elsewhere. That also doesn't require inside information.

Why should we want prediction markets to be fair? I want them to reveal facts about the world. They only need to be fair inasmuch as it serves that goal. I don't think it wouldn serve that goal to forbid insider trading? (Why do we forbid insider trading in the stock market? Not because it's unfair. Because it makes the market worse at doing what we want it to do, which is funding the most productive enterprises).

Lol. Why should we make car ownership fair? I want cars to reveal facts about the world. I don't think it would serve that goal to forbid people from stealing your car.

Re: A prediction market user made $436k betting on Maduro's downfall

#106

Post by ains »

mellosouls wrote: post #101

Where's the evidence for this? Note the lack of links and that all of these Maduro reports originate from X which is rampant with polymarket grifters claiming secret insights into how the big bets are made. Perhaps somebody here can provide a Polymarket link (not screenshots) to the proof? I'm not saying the BBC has been scammed here but the only link I've found to the alleged account 404s. Perhaps its been taken dow…

https://web.archive.org/web/20260104031407/https://polymarke...

Looks like Polymarket took the profile down but it’s still available on the Internet Archive

Re: A prediction market user made $436k betting on Maduro's downfall

#107

Post by DANmode »

bjackman wrote: post #99
kqr wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, better synthesis of public information is also a way to win. Some people think of that as more fair. Another way to win is to use them for hedging exposure elsewhere. That also doesn't require inside information.

Why should we want prediction markets to be fair? I want them to reveal facts about the world. They only need to be fair inasmuch as it serves that goal. I don't think it wouldn serve that goal to forbid insider trading? (Why do we forbid insider trading in the stock market? Not because it's unfair. Because it makes the market worse at doing what we want it to do, which is funding the most productive enterprises).

> Why should we want prediction markets to be fair? I want them to reveal facts about the world.

Nice in theory,

in practice, the money begins creating the facts about the world.

Sometimes to the detriment of innocents.

Re: A prediction market user made $436k betting on Maduro's downfall

#108

Post by [deleted] »

bulbar wrote: post #63
paxys wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let's not forget > Donald Trump Jr, the president's son, serves in advisory roles at Kalshi and Polymarket.

I believe there are way better opportunities than making 400k with a bet on an app. Could have been for fun though.

[deleted]

Re: A prediction market user made $436k betting on Maduro's downfall

#109

Post by DANmode »

3eb7988a1663 wrote: post #75
bulbar wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe there are way better opportunities than making 400k with a bet on an app. Could have been for fun though.

There are so many obvious grifts happening inside the administrations, $400k hardly seems worth the effort for the top dogs.

What effort?

Re: A prediction market user made $436k betting on Maduro's downfall

#110

Post by urxvtcd »

tptacek wrote: post #59
schoen wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What uses or structures of prediction markets would you like to see? For things like Polymarket, are you more particularly concerned about the kinds of participants (e.g. people who really are just gambling for entertainment), or about the kinds of questions that are the subjects of contracts?

The original prediction markets were internal things at large companies, which I think are a great idea. I've flirted for a long time with doing a vulnerability prediction market. The good-faith incarnations of prediction markets aren't open to all comers; they're structured so you can't meaningfully gamble on them.

How isn’t a knowledgeable person incentivized to find vulnerabilities but not disclose them?
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