Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

A prediction market user made $436k betting on Maduro's downfall

bbc.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

91–100 of 208 posts

Re: A prediction market user made $436k betting on Maduro's downfall

#91

Post by hobofan »

jjmarr wrote: post #78
enjeyw wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It absolutely has been! In general prediction markets can’t be “correct” or “incorrect” - for instance if a prediction market says there’s a 60% chance of an event occurring, and it doesn’t occur, was the market right or wrong? Well it’s hard to say - certainly the market said the event was more likely to occur than not, but only just, and who knows? Maybe the event _only just_ occurred, and very nearly didn’t! So ge…

Charlie Kirk has a 3% chance of winning a Nobel Peace Prize right now according to Polymarket. He's climbed from 1% since Maduro was arrested. It seems unlikely since Nobels aren't awarded posthumously.

Normally they aren't, but maybe the US will take over Sweden and the Nobel Foundation and make it happen.

Re: A prediction market user made $436k betting on Maduro's downfall

#92

Post by Aurornis »

exogeny wrote: post #11

Insider trading is a feature, not a bug, say Shayne and Tarek, stupidly. You can't have this amount of obvious manipulation and expect the average retail consumer to join. Same reason why there hasn't been mass consumer adoption of crypto. People just don't feel safe.

> Same reason why there hasn't been mass consumer adoption of crypto. People just don't feel safe.

The volatility and wild swings are a feature, not a bug, to retail investors who like this stuff. Investing in crypto is mainstream now. It's been advertised on TV for years. Download Robinhood, put money in, and trade the swings.

It's popular to "trade" crypto. The retail investors aren't buying to use it. They're not even doing crypto things with it, they're just getting an entry in the database of their investment platform. Everyone knows it's heavily manipulated and gamed, but they want to come along for the ride and make some money with the manipulators.

Prediction markets are exciting to the same audience for the same reason: Maybe outlier things can happen and you'll guess correctly ahead of time. That's the draw.

Re: A prediction market user made $436k betting on Maduro's downfall

#94

Post by renewiltord »

bulbar wrote: post #63
paxys wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let's not forget > Donald Trump Jr, the president's son, serves in advisory roles at Kalshi and Polymarket.

I believe there are way better opportunities than making 400k with a bet on an app. Could have been for fun though.

Tom Homan took $50k from the FBI and he's the border czar. You can win on either margin or volume. It looks like these guys operate on volume.

Re: A prediction market user made $436k betting on Maduro's downfall

#95

Post by A4ET8a8uTh0_v2 »

kurtis_reed wrote: post #71
enjeyw wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well markets are evaluated on a number of different metrics depending on what you’re trying to determine. If you want to go be pedantic about it and select one metric, markets are evaluated on their Brier Score or some other Proper Scoring Rule, not accuracy. However, I prefer calibration as a high level way to explain prediction market performance to people, as it’s more intuitive.

Proper scoring rules measure accuracy

I suspect that you are arguing semantics, where parent and grandparent focus on the nuance of what is ACTUALLY being measured. I am saying it like this, because while I never used prediction markets, I briefly looked into them to see if I could use them well. The question of accuracy came up, which is why I happen to align with posters above.

With that in mind, what do mean exactly.

Re: A prediction market user made $436k betting on Maduro's downfall

#96

Post by kqr »

randyrand wrote: post #93

Using insider information is how you are supposed to win these. Otherwise it's just random gambling. This is not the stock market. There are no public reporting rules for the weather, song lyrics, what Kim Kardashian eats tomorrow.

Well, better synthesis of public information is also a way to win. Some people think of that as more fair.

Another way to win is to use them for hedging exposure elsewhere. That also doesn't require inside information.

Re: A prediction market user made $436k betting on Maduro's downfall

#98

Post by randyrand »

kqr wrote: post #96
randyrand wrote: post #93

Using insider information is how you are supposed to win these. Otherwise it's just random gambling. This is not the stock market. There are no public reporting rules for the weather, song lyrics, what Kim Kardashian eats tomorrow.

Well, better synthesis of public information is also a way to win. Some people think of that as more fair. Another way to win is to use them for hedging exposure elsewhere. That also doesn't require inside information.

We are all in the same world. Go find the information you need to make informed choices.

Betting on the weather? Go build weather stations. Betting on Kim Kardashian? Go interview her.

This "go find valuable information" approach is broadly applicable to making money.

Re: A prediction market user made $436k betting on Maduro's downfall

#99

Post by bjackman »

kqr wrote: post #96
randyrand wrote: post #93

Using insider information is how you are supposed to win these. Otherwise it's just random gambling. This is not the stock market. There are no public reporting rules for the weather, song lyrics, what Kim Kardashian eats tomorrow.

Well, better synthesis of public information is also a way to win. Some people think of that as more fair. Another way to win is to use them for hedging exposure elsewhere. That also doesn't require inside information.

Why should we want prediction markets to be fair? I want them to reveal facts about the world.

They only need to be fair inasmuch as it serves that goal. I don't think it wouldn serve that goal to forbid insider trading?

(Why do we forbid insider trading in the stock market? Not because it's unfair. Because it makes the market worse at doing what we want it to do, which is funding the most productive enterprises).

Re: A prediction market user made $436k betting on Maduro's downfall

#100

Post by octoberfranklin »

ordinaryradical wrote: post #70
tshaddox wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be fair, insider trading for a prediction market doesn’t really seem like a bad thing. It’s arguably the entire point (to incentivize the aggregation of all relevant information on the topic) and, unlike securities markets, there’s no equivalent of “but it’s unfair to normal traders using the markets as investments.”

The problem with prediction markets is not purely insiders but that they interface with the real world, so they encourage bettors not just to predict an outcome but to bring it into being. You are a poorly paid Russian commander. You open an account on polymarket or Kalshi and place a bet about specific Russian troop movements, perhaps ones that would be disastrous to your war effort even, to up the leverage. When yo…

That is called treason, already illegal in every country.

We don't need new laws to solve your putative problem.

Post reply on HN