How often are these prediction markets "correct"? Has this been studied?
A prediction market user made $436k betting on Maduro's downfall
21–30 of 208 posts
Re: A prediction market user made $436k betting on Maduro's downfall
#22Earlier quoted context omitted.
Insider bets are literally the purpose of prediction markets.
How? Then why would non-insiders bet? The classic prediction market is guessing the weight of an elephant (or some animal) at a circus. The average guess of the crowd will actually get very close. But if someone knows the actual weight, no one would play.
Because they are, to use a technical term, "dumb as a stump". That's why they would participate despite not having any inside knowledge.
Re: A prediction market user made $436k betting on Maduro's downfall
#23Earlier quoted context omitted.
Insider bets are literally the purpose of prediction markets.
How? Then why would non-insiders bet? The classic prediction market is guessing the weight of an elephant (or some animal) at a circus. The average guess of the crowd will actually get very close. But if someone knows the actual weight, no one would play.
The entire idea of a prediction market is to aggregate insider information. If you don't have insiders, you're not doing predictions, you're just doing gambling.
Granted: that's what almost every Polymarket user is actually doing. But that's a bad thing. The insider whales are the only ones actually using it for its intended purpose.
Re: A prediction market user made $436k betting on Maduro's downfall
#24Earlier quoted context omitted.
Insider bets are literally the purpose of prediction markets.
How? Then why would non-insiders bet? The classic prediction market is guessing the weight of an elephant (or some animal) at a circus. The average guess of the crowd will actually get very close. But if someone knows the actual weight, no one would play.
One way to use a market rationally as a non-insider is to bet big against something you want to happen. You've just set a bounty for someone to do it. Presumably for some reason this is even more in your favor outside the betting market.
Re: A prediction market user made $436k betting on Maduro's downfall
#25Earlier quoted context omitted.
Insider bets are literally the purpose of prediction markets.
How? Then why would non-insiders bet? The classic prediction market is guessing the weight of an elephant (or some animal) at a circus. The average guess of the crowd will actually get very close. But if someone knows the actual weight, no one would play.
Isn’t this a classic fool’s money game. The betting markets have a strong incentive to pretend it isn’t an insider’s game.
Honestly, of all the vices, I think I pity gamblers a lot. It’s just so visible and understandable to see the harm. Something like being too into porn or drink, those are less visible harm. Where running out of money is comprehensible to even a child.
Re: A prediction market user made $436k betting on Maduro's downfall
#26It's technically not illegal if someone was able to observe the planes flying and place the bets accordingly. Public info is legal to trade on. But it's obviously also ripe for abuse. Any govt. employee can start trading on the side, 100% untraceable.
What are the laws around polymarket?
I've never used it, but continue to see posts about employees making bets on privileged information and that being legal.
Re: A prediction market user made $436k betting on Maduro's downfall
#27Earlier quoted context omitted.
How? Then why would non-insiders bet? The classic prediction market is guessing the weight of an elephant (or some animal) at a circus. The average guess of the crowd will actually get very close. But if someone knows the actual weight, no one would play.
The entire idea of a prediction market is to aggregate insider information. If you don't have insiders, you're not doing predictions, you're just doing gambling. Granted: that's what almost every Polymarket user is actually doing. But that's a bad thing . The insider whales are the only ones actually using it for its intended purpose.
It's not 'predicting' when the outcome/answer is known. From the wiki entry on prediction markets "The main purpose of prediction markets are eliciting aggregating beliefs about an unknown future event."
Re: A prediction market user made $436k betting on Maduro's downfall
#28Earlier quoted context omitted.
Insider bets are literally the purpose of prediction markets.
How? Then why would non-insiders bet? The classic prediction market is guessing the weight of an elephant (or some animal) at a circus. The average guess of the crowd will actually get very close. But if someone knows the actual weight, no one would play.
Do you think people betting on things are generally rational actors?
Re: A prediction market user made $436k betting on Maduro's downfall
#29It's technically not illegal if someone was able to observe the planes flying and place the bets accordingly. Public info is legal to trade on. But it's obviously also ripe for abuse. Any govt. employee can start trading on the side, 100% untraceable.
They took off from many different places so you'd have to somehow know that ~150 aircraft were taking off. If you happen to just see one spot, you'd likely just assume it was another bombing of a boat or a dock.
Or… someone seeing a bunch of commercial flights over the Caribbean getting cancelled. Could be anyone from airline ops to frustrated travelers stranded in Boston.
Re: A prediction market user made $436k betting on Maduro's downfall
#30I have to imagine governments are closely monitoring prediction markets as part of their intelligence apparatus. But then you just add another layer of subterfuge. Imagine a D-Day prediction market... "Will the Allies Land in Normandy, Pas-de-Calais, or somewhere else?" The US might buy a major position on Pas-de-Calais the night before as a decoy!
These prediction markets were proposed by DARPA iirc