A prediction market user made $436k betting on Maduro's downfall • Hacker News Board

Re: A prediction market user made $436k betting on Maduro's downfall

#11

Post by exogeny » Tue, Jan 06, 2026, 4:30 AM UTC

Insider trading is a feature, not a bug, say Shayne and Tarek, stupidly.

You can't have this amount of obvious manipulation and expect the average retail consumer to join. Same reason why there hasn't been mass consumer adoption of crypto. People just don't feel safe.

Re: A prediction market user made $436k betting on Maduro's downfall

#12

Post by exogeny » Tue, Jan 06, 2026, 4:31 AM UTC

ecommerceguy wrote: post #8

can i bet on when prediction markets will collapse due to rampant insider bets?

They won't collapse, but they won't reach their full potential. I would hate to be a16z sitting on their $10B post-money valuation Kalshi bags, that's for sure.

Re: A prediction market user made $436k betting on Maduro's downfall

#13

Post by tptacek » Tue, Jan 06, 2026, 4:32 AM UTC

ecommerceguy wrote: post #8

can i bet on when prediction markets will collapse due to rampant insider bets?

Insider bets are literally the purpose of prediction markets.

Re: A prediction market user made $436k betting on Maduro's downfall

#14

Post by elil17 » Tue, Jan 06, 2026, 4:32 AM UTC

How long before the government intentionally does something stupid so that a Prediction Market pays off?

Probably won't happen actually, since they can just do blatant insider trading on the stock market instead.

Re: A prediction market user made $436k betting on Maduro's downfall

#15

Post by yieldcrv » Tue, Jan 06, 2026, 4:32 AM UTC

ecommerceguy wrote: post #8

can i bet on when prediction markets will collapse due to rampant insider bets?

they'll collapse due to oracle bias before anyone cares about the insider trading

Polymarket needs a second and third oracle network

Re: A prediction market user made $436k betting on Maduro's downfall

#16

Post by giarc » Tue, Jan 06, 2026, 4:32 AM UTC

foxglacier wrote: post #5

colesantiago wrote: post #2

Insider trading is legal. Crime is legal. You shouldn't be surprised though, name any market, all markets are full of manipulation and insiders.

So what about all the bets for other dates? Who's an insider and who isn't? You're just making up nonsense. https://polymarket.com/event/maduro-out-in-2025

Serious question, was there ever another (new) bettor placing $30k on a 6.5% chance outcome?

Re: A prediction market user made $436k betting on Maduro's downfall

#17

Post by tptacek » Tue, Jan 06, 2026, 4:32 AM UTC

exogeny wrote: post #11

Insider trading is a feature, not a bug, say Shayne and Tarek, stupidly. You can't have this amount of obvious manipulation and expect the average retail consumer to join. Same reason why there hasn't been mass consumer adoption of crypto. People just don't feel safe.

Retail consumers shouldn't be joining.

Re: A prediction market user made $436k betting on Maduro's downfall

#18

Post by alach11 » Tue, Jan 06, 2026, 4:34 AM UTC

I have to imagine governments are closely monitoring prediction markets as part of their intelligence apparatus. But then you just add another layer of subterfuge. Imagine a D-Day prediction market... "Will the Allies Land in Normandy, Pas-de-Calais, or somewhere else?" The US might buy a major position on Pas-de-Calais the night before as a decoy!

Re: A prediction market user made $436k betting on Maduro's downfall

#19

Post by giarc » Tue, Jan 06, 2026, 4:34 AM UTC

tptacek wrote: post #13

ecommerceguy wrote: post #8

can i bet on when prediction markets will collapse due to rampant insider bets?

Insider bets are literally the purpose of prediction markets.

How? Then why would non-insiders bet? The classic prediction market is guessing the weight of an elephant (or some animal) at a circus. The average guess of the crowd will actually get very close. But if someone knows the actual weight, no one would play.

Re: A prediction market user made $436k betting on Maduro's downfall

#20

Post by jojobas » Tue, Jan 06, 2026, 4:34 AM UTC

ecommerceguy wrote: post #8

can i bet on when prediction markets will collapse due to rampant insider bets?

It could reasonably be a non-insider, just someone monitoring comms activity, ship movement, pentagon pizza and parking indexes, and other open sources.