A prediction market user made $436k betting on Maduro's downfall
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Re: A prediction market user made $436k betting on Maduro's downfall
#2Insider trading is legal.
Crime is legal.
You shouldn't be surprised though, name any market, all markets are full of manipulation and insiders.
Re: A prediction market user made $436k betting on Maduro's downfall
#3Insider trading is legal. Crime is legal. You shouldn't be surprised though, name any market, all markets are full of manipulation and insiders.
hey now, Insider trading is legal if you're the right Insider, and so is crime, which means not so much for you and I.
Re: A prediction market user made $436k betting on Maduro's downfall
#4Insider trading is legal. Crime is legal. You shouldn't be surprised though, name any market, all markets are full of manipulation and insiders.
Only certain limited forms of insider trading are federal crimes. The insider trading laws don't really cover this type of prediction market. But depending on the facts of the case it's possible that the trader or related parties committed some other crime such as wire fraud or improper release of classified information.
Re: A prediction market user made $436k betting on Maduro's downfall
#5Insider trading is legal. Crime is legal. You shouldn't be surprised though, name any market, all markets are full of manipulation and insiders.
So what about all the bets for other dates? Who's an insider and who isn't? You're just making up nonsense.
Re: A prediction market user made $436k betting on Maduro's downfall
#6It's technically not illegal if someone was able to observe the planes flying and place the bets accordingly. Public info is legal to trade on.
But it's obviously also ripe for abuse. Any govt. employee can start trading on the side, 100% untraceable.
Re: A prediction market user made $436k betting on Maduro's downfall
#7Insider trading is legal. Crime is legal. You shouldn't be surprised though, name any market, all markets are full of manipulation and insiders.
To be fair, insider trading for a prediction market doesn’t really seem like a bad thing. It’s arguably the entire point (to incentivize the aggregation of all relevant information on the topic) and, unlike securities markets, there’s no equivalent of “but it’s unfair to normal traders using the markets as investments.”
Re: A prediction market user made $436k betting on Maduro's downfall
#8can i bet on when prediction markets will collapse due to rampant insider bets?
Re: A prediction market user made $436k betting on Maduro's downfall
#9It's technically not illegal if someone was able to observe the planes flying and place the bets accordingly. Public info is legal to trade on. But it's obviously also ripe for abuse. Any govt. employee can start trading on the side, 100% untraceable.
They took off from many different places so you'd have to somehow know that ~150 aircraft were taking off. If you happen to just see one spot, you'd likely just assume it was another bombing of a boat or a dock.
Re: A prediction market user made $436k betting on Maduro's downfall
#10Insider trading is legal. Crime is legal. You shouldn't be surprised though, name any market, all markets are full of manipulation and insiders.
I feel like these types of markets exist purely for arbitraging information asymmetry. You have to know what game you're playing.