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Jensen: 'We've done our country a great disservice' by offshoring

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Re: Jensen: 'We've done our country a great disservice' by offshoring

#41

Post by ineedaj0b »

moogly wrote: post #13

He is not causally connecting "AI" with industry and manufacturing here. Building data centers isn't manufacturing. He says in this piece that energy production needs to come first, and manufacturing later and not the other way around. Is he saying that AI will require building out energy production and the increased energy production will be used for... manufacturing? But it'll be used for the data centers. What, ex…

the price of metal, raw metal, coming out of factories like aluminum, steel, titanium is high because the cost of energy is high.

I think it’s 30%-40% the cost of smelting it. Unless you can drop the price of energy and cheapen the raw material cost, the entire manufacturing industry will be uncompetitive.

Primary smelters currently run pretty efficiently but are bottlenecked by two main factors in the USA: raw energy prices and regulations. (there’s likely some modern process improvements they could add too but those won’t increase productively as greatly).

To reduce energy costs… you’ll need about double the current energy production we have today. That sounds like a lot but it’s very doable (the US has been neglecting itself for 50 years). It could with a little push from the Government catch up in 10-15 years, think lots of nuclear and solar.

Re: Jensen: 'We've done our country a great disservice' by offshoring

#42

Post by catigula »

ck2 wrote: post #37

lol "AI" is going to coincidentally collapse the same time this tyrannical presidency ends what drugs are you doing where you truly believe eliminating millions of jobs is going to bring "prosperity" it's going to "silo" wealth even further and make everything more unaffordable next generation won't even be able to own a car forget a home

AI isn't going to collapse. It's the real deal.

Re: Jensen: 'We've done our country a great disservice' by offshoring

#43

Post by K0balt »

moogly wrote: post #13

He is not causally connecting "AI" with industry and manufacturing here. Building data centers isn't manufacturing. He says in this piece that energy production needs to come first, and manufacturing later and not the other way around. Is he saying that AI will require building out energy production and the increased energy production will be used for... manufacturing? But it'll be used for the data centers. What, ex…

Manufacturing means, realistically, bootstrapping the general purpose robots that will foment the “third Industrial Revolution”, which will revolutionize capital and make money largely irrelevant. Energy, materials, and automation are the only relevant factors for capital in the post-employment era.

Re: Jensen: 'We've done our country a great disservice' by offshoring

#45

Post by johncolanduoni »

ecshafer wrote: post #34
bluGill wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Data centers provide jobs. Not as many as manufacturing, but the difference isn't as large as you would guess. A modern data center needs 50-100 people to repair/replace hardware, maintain the generators and such. A modern factory needs 200-500 people to do the assembly, shipping, and other such work that isn't automated. Of course if labor is cheap you can use a non-automated factory and then you will have 2000-1000…

Is that comparison similar square footage? I know of factories that have 10 employees and are small machine shops, and factories that have a few thousand employees (even ones that are highly automated). The difference is scale.

I’m not sure square footage is what matters here, though comparing the overall market for datacenter/manufacturing jobs would be more useful than individual installations anyway. It’s not like the U.S. is hurting for physical space in which to put factories or data centers. Speed of light isn’t that slow — the big New York IXP is actually in New Jersey and it would be fine even if it was further away.

Re: Jensen: 'We've done our country a great disservice' by offshoring

#46

Post by tokai »

K0balt wrote: post #35
tokai wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sending production to the place with the cheapest labour is great way to have your companies being outcompeted by foreign actors. Unless we want to return to mercantilism a global empowerment of organized labour globally is the only real way to fix this.

This assumes that leadership has a vision beyond the next quarterlies. Offshoring is seen as a solution to organized labor, unfortunately. Exec compensation above a reasonable salary needs to to tied somehow to longer term outcomes.

Forgot the whole crux of my point. Labour needs to be empowered globally, to minimize the benefits of offshoring.

Re: Jensen: 'We've done our country a great disservice' by offshoring

#48

Post by codegeek »

This doesn't make sense. Nvidia literally has offices all over the world including India (a country that gets the most flak for offshoring). So why now ? Suddenly, "offshoring bad" ? I don't buy it. I think it is more about AI data centers. I could be wrong.

Re: Jensen: 'We've done our country a great disservice' by offshoring

#50

Post by moogly »

ineedaj0b wrote: post #41
moogly wrote: post #13

He is not causally connecting "AI" with industry and manufacturing here. Building data centers isn't manufacturing. He says in this piece that energy production needs to come first, and manufacturing later and not the other way around. Is he saying that AI will require building out energy production and the increased energy production will be used for... manufacturing? But it'll be used for the data centers. What, ex…

the price of metal, raw metal, coming out of factories like aluminum, steel, titanium is high because the cost of energy is high. I think it’s 30%-40% the cost of smelting it. Unless you can drop the price of energy and cheapen the raw material cost, the entire manufacturing industry will be uncompetitive. Primary smelters currently run pretty efficiently but are bottlenecked by two main factors in the USA: raw energ…

Bringing energy costs down. I see. While I'm not super well-versed in the US energy market, and I understand it's a bit complex, I do believe it's a mix of regulated and deregulated private monopolies under a bunch of regional ISOs, but there's an energy trading market down there somewhere setting spot prices, correct? So are you saying the US energy market should be, if not fully re-regulated, regulated harder, or perhaps abolished and everything should be brought back to being state or federally run (I'm not sure the US ever had that)?

It is not always in energy producers' interest to have really low energy prices, after all.

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