There is no doubt that OpenAI is taking a lot of risks by betting that AI adoption will translate into revenues in the very short term. And that could really happen imo (with a low probability sure, but worth the risk for VCs? Probably).
OpenAI's cash burn will be one of the big bubble questions of 2026
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Re: OpenAI's cash burn will be one of the big bubble questions of 2026
#32The fact is nobody has any idea what OpenAI's cash burn is. Measuring how much they're raising is not an adequate proxy. For all we know, they could be accumulating capital to weather an AI winter. It's also worth noting that OpenAI has not trained a new model since gpt4o (all subsequent models are routing systems and prompt chains built on top of 4), so the idea of OpenAI being stuck in some kind of runaway training…
they're paying million dollar salaries to engineers and building data centers, it's not a huge mystery where their expenses are
Re: OpenAI's cash burn will be one of the big bubble questions of 2026
#33The fact is nobody has any idea what OpenAI's cash burn is. Measuring how much they're raising is not an adequate proxy. For all we know, they could be accumulating capital to weather an AI winter. It's also worth noting that OpenAI has not trained a new model since gpt4o (all subsequent models are routing systems and prompt chains built on top of 4), so the idea of OpenAI being stuck in some kind of runaway training…
wasn't 4.5 new
Re: OpenAI's cash burn will be one of the big bubble questions of 2026
#34The fact is nobody has any idea what OpenAI's cash burn is. Measuring how much they're raising is not an adequate proxy. For all we know, they could be accumulating capital to weather an AI winter. It's also worth noting that OpenAI has not trained a new model since gpt4o (all subsequent models are routing systems and prompt chains built on top of 4), so the idea of OpenAI being stuck in some kind of runaway training…
Didn't they create Sora and other models and literally burned so much money with their AI video app which they wanted to make a social media but what ended up happening was that they burned billions of dollars.
Re: OpenAI's cash burn will be one of the big bubble questions of 2026
#35Earlier quoted context omitted.
That's like every government initiative. Same as healthcare? School? I mean if you don't have children why do you pay taxes... and roads if you don't drive? I mean the examples are so many... why do you bring this argument that if it doesn't benefit you directly right now today, it shouldn't be done?
Healthcare, schools, roads, generative AI. One of these things is not like the others.
We gave incentives to broadband, why not generative AI?
Re: OpenAI's cash burn will be one of the big bubble questions of 2026
#36why does the article used words like burn and incinerate, implying that OpenAI is somehow making money disappear or something? They’re spending it; someone is profiting here, even if it’s not OpenAI. Is it all Nvidia?
I suspect most of it is going to utilities for power, water and racking.
That being said, if I was Sam Altman I'd also be stocking up on yachts, mansions and gold plated toilets while the books are still private. If there's $10bn a year in outgoings no one's going to notice a million here and there.
Re: OpenAI's cash burn will be one of the big bubble questions of 2026
#37The fact is nobody has any idea what OpenAI's cash burn is. Measuring how much they're raising is not an adequate proxy. For all we know, they could be accumulating capital to weather an AI winter. It's also worth noting that OpenAI has not trained a new model since gpt4o (all subsequent models are routing systems and prompt chains built on top of 4), so the idea of OpenAI being stuck in some kind of runaway training…
Why do you think they have not trained a new model since 4o? You think the GPT-5 release is /just/ routing to differently sized 4o models?
Re: OpenAI's cash burn will be one of the big bubble questions of 2026
#38The fact is nobody has any idea what OpenAI's cash burn is. Measuring how much they're raising is not an adequate proxy. For all we know, they could be accumulating capital to weather an AI winter. It's also worth noting that OpenAI has not trained a new model since gpt4o (all subsequent models are routing systems and prompt chains built on top of 4), so the idea of OpenAI being stuck in some kind of runaway training…
How are they updating the data then? Wouldn’t the cutoff date be getting further away from today?
Re: OpenAI's cash burn will be one of the big bubble questions of 2026
#39Earlier quoted context omitted.
Because typically one expect a return on investment with that level of spending. Not only have they run at a loss for years, their spending is expected to increase, with no path to profitability in sight.
not that I disagree but would it be fair to say though that we have seen this before where it turned out OK? say Uber? Amazon?
To become the next Uber, do I just need to run huge losses?
Re: OpenAI's cash burn will be one of the big bubble questions of 2026
#40The fact is nobody has any idea what OpenAI's cash burn is. Measuring how much they're raising is not an adequate proxy. For all we know, they could be accumulating capital to weather an AI winter. It's also worth noting that OpenAI has not trained a new model since gpt4o (all subsequent models are routing systems and prompt chains built on top of 4), so the idea of OpenAI being stuck in some kind of runaway training…
they're paying million dollar salaries to engineers and building data centers, it's not a huge mystery where their expenses are
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