Most people in this thread are quibbling about the exact degree of utility LLMs provide, which a tedious argument. What's more interesting to me is, per the article, the concern regarding everyone who is leaning into LLMs without realizing (or downplaying) the exorbitant, externalized cost. Our current LLM usage is being subsidized to the point of being free by outside investment. One day when the well runs dry, you…
The future of software development is software developers
411–420 of 588 posts
Re: The future of software development is software developers
#412Most people in this thread are quibbling about the exact degree of utility LLMs provide, which a tedious argument. What's more interesting to me is, per the article, the concern regarding everyone who is leaning into LLMs without realizing (or downplaying) the exorbitant, externalized cost. Our current LLM usage is being subsidized to the point of being free by outside investment. One day when the well runs dry, you…
This is a good point but you can see the price "ceiling" by examining the prices for PCs that can effectively run local models. A DGX Spark is ~$4k (plus power) for example. That's not nothing, but it's still not very much to pay compared to e.g. the cost of a FTE.
Re: The future of software development is software developers
#413Earlier quoted context omitted.
> they were deploying code outside their areas of expertise doing dev ops, infra, backend and frontend. > The boss can now throw a frontend job to a backend developer and now expect completion in a day or less. Right. So essentially vibe coding in unknown domains, sounds great. Truly professional.
Also can you please stop stalking me and just respond to my points instead of digging through my whole profile and attempting to do character assassinations based off of what I wrote in the past? Thanks.
Re: The future of software development is software developers
#414Most people in this thread are quibbling about the exact degree of utility LLMs provide, which a tedious argument. What's more interesting to me is, per the article, the concern regarding everyone who is leaning into LLMs without realizing (or downplaying) the exorbitant, externalized cost. Our current LLM usage is being subsidized to the point of being free by outside investment. One day when the well runs dry, you…
The required hardware is fits the budget for a professional developer.
Putting LLMs in the cloud allows the hardware to be utilised better and to have sharding of big models.
Re: The future of software development is software developers
#415I really really want this to be true. I want to be relevant. I don’t know what to do if all those predictions are true and there is no need (or very little need) for programmers anymore. But something tells me “this time is different” is different this time for real. Coding AIs design software better than me, review code better than me, find hard-to-find bugs better than me, plan long-running projects better than me,…
More than any other effect they have LLMs breed something called "learned helplessness". You just listed a few things it may stay better than you at, and a few things that it is not better than you at and never will be . Planning long running projects and deciding are things only you can do well!! Humans manage costs. We look out for our future. We worry. We have excitement, and pride. It wants you to think none of t…
I think it's people's anxieties and fears about the uncertainty about the value of their own cognitive labor demoralizing them and making them doubt their own self-efficacy. Which I think is an understandable reaction in the face of trillion dollar companies frothing at the mouth to replace you with pale imitations.
Best name I could think of calling this narrative / myth is people believing in "effortless AI": https://www.insidevoice.ai/p/effortless-ai
Re: The future of software development is software developers
#416Earlier quoted context omitted.
You can assume that already-published open weights models are available at $0, regardless of how much money was sunk into their original development. These models will look increasingly stale over time but most software development doesn't change quickly. If a model can generate capable and up-to-date Python, C++, Java, or Javascript code in 2025 then you can expect it to still be a useful model in 2035 (based on the…
>2025-2035 Depending on other people to maintain backward compatibility so that you can keep coding like it’s 2025 is its own problematic dependency. You could certainly do it but it would be limiting. Imagine that you had a model trained on examples from before 2013 and your boss wants you to take over maintenance for a React app.
The value of this technology has been established, it's not leaving anytime soon.
Re: The future of software development is software developers
#417we've never had machines that can reason. today, they reason badly. tomorrow, they'll reason better. not all ai research white papers will pan out, but some will. the ai research community is acutely aware of the limitations in reasoning; it's their whole mission right now. 100% chance someone will make progress. Analogous to the chip industry or self driving, in that regard
incremental improvements in reasoning will broaden the dead zone for human developers
what difference does it make if in 20 years NASA still needs a few human developers but the rest of us are unemployed? ai agents still can't get you to the moon with one shot coding session in 2045? who cares?
the "still can't" we really need to be worried about is "politicians still can't consider UBI"
Re: The future of software development is software developers
#418Most people in this thread are quibbling about the exact degree of utility LLMs provide, which a tedious argument. What's more interesting to me is, per the article, the concern regarding everyone who is leaning into LLMs without realizing (or downplaying) the exorbitant, externalized cost. Our current LLM usage is being subsidized to the point of being free by outside investment. One day when the well runs dry, you…
> One day when the well runs dry, you must be able to either pay the actual cost What multiple of the current cost do you expect? Currently, GitHub Copilot and ChatGPT for Business cost $19/month and €29/month respectively. Even a 10×–20× increase will still be economically viable in a professional setting if the tools continue to save hours of work.
Re: The future of software development is software developers
#419The future of problem solving is problem solvers
Re: The future of software development is software developers
#420Most people in this thread are quibbling about the exact degree of utility LLMs provide, which a tedious argument. What's more interesting to me is, per the article, the concern regarding everyone who is leaning into LLMs without realizing (or downplaying) the exorbitant, externalized cost. Our current LLM usage is being subsidized to the point of being free by outside investment. One day when the well runs dry, you…