Live data from Hacker News

The future of software development is software developers

codemanship.wordpress.com

411–420 of 588 posts

Re: The future of software development is software developers

#411

Most people in this thread are quibbling about the exact degree of utility LLMs provide, which a tedious argument. What's more interesting to me is, per the article, the concern regarding everyone who is leaning into LLMs without realizing (or downplaying) the exorbitant, externalized cost. Our current LLM usage is being subsidized to the point of being free by outside investment. One day when the well runs dry, you…

As someone who works on the design and construction of datacenters, I cannot stress enough how apropos this comment is. Even before the first conversation in your IDE starts, the load on national and local government resources, local utility capacity, and roadway infrastructure is enormous. We're all paying whether we're using the tools or not.

Re: The future of software development is software developers

#412

Most people in this thread are quibbling about the exact degree of utility LLMs provide, which a tedious argument. What's more interesting to me is, per the article, the concern regarding everyone who is leaning into LLMs without realizing (or downplaying) the exorbitant, externalized cost. Our current LLM usage is being subsidized to the point of being free by outside investment. One day when the well runs dry, you…

This is a good point but you can see the price "ceiling" by examining the prices for PCs that can effectively run local models. A DGX Spark is ~$4k (plus power) for example. That's not nothing, but it's still not very much to pay compared to e.g. the cost of a FTE.

That can't come anywhere close to running the current SotA models, though.

Re: The future of software development is software developers

#413

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> they were deploying code outside their areas of expertise doing dev ops, infra, backend and frontend. > The boss can now throw a frontend job to a backend developer and now expect completion in a day or less. Right. So essentially vibe coding in unknown domains, sounds great. Truly professional.

Also can you please stop stalking me and just respond to my points instead of digging through my whole profile and attempting to do character assassinations based off of what I wrote in the past? Thanks.

[dead]

Re: The future of software development is software developers

#414

Most people in this thread are quibbling about the exact degree of utility LLMs provide, which a tedious argument. What's more interesting to me is, per the article, the concern regarding everyone who is leaning into LLMs without realizing (or downplaying) the exorbitant, externalized cost. Our current LLM usage is being subsidized to the point of being free by outside investment. One day when the well runs dry, you…

A competitive coding like devstral 2 runs fast enough to be very helpful: https://www.hardware-corner.net/devstral-2-hardware-requirem...

The required hardware is fits the budget for a professional developer.

Putting LLMs in the cloud allows the hardware to be utilised better and to have sharding of big models.

Re: The future of software development is software developers

#415
post #3

I really really want this to be true. I want to be relevant. I don’t know what to do if all those predictions are true and there is no need (or very little need) for programmers anymore. But something tells me “this time is different” is different this time for real. Coding AIs design software better than me, review code better than me, find hard-to-find bugs better than me, plan long-running projects better than me,…

More than any other effect they have LLMs breed something called "learned helplessness". You just listed a few things it may stay better than you at, and a few things that it is not better than you at and never will be . Planning long running projects and deciding are things only you can do well!! Humans manage costs. We look out for our future. We worry. We have excitement, and pride. It wants you to think none of t…

Yea I've been seeing very similar behavior from people. They think of themselves as static, unchanging, uncreative but view LLMs as some kind of unrelenting and inevitable innovative force...

I think it's people's anxieties and fears about the uncertainty about the value of their own cognitive labor demoralizing them and making them doubt their own self-efficacy. Which I think is an understandable reaction in the face of trillion dollar companies frothing at the mouth to replace you with pale imitations.

Best name I could think of calling this narrative / myth is people believing in "effortless AI": https://www.insidevoice.ai/p/effortless-ai

Re: The future of software development is software developers

#416

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can assume that already-published open weights models are available at $0, regardless of how much money was sunk into their original development. These models will look increasingly stale over time but most software development doesn't change quickly. If a model can generate capable and up-to-date Python, C++, Java, or Javascript code in 2025 then you can expect it to still be a useful model in 2035 (based on the…

>2025-2035 Depending on other people to maintain backward compatibility so that you can keep coding like it’s 2025 is its own problematic dependency. You could certainly do it but it would be limiting. Imagine that you had a model trained on examples from before 2013 and your boss wants you to take over maintenance for a React app.

You're all referencing the strange idea in a world where there would be no open-weight coding models trained in the future. Even in a world where VC spending vanished completely, coding models are such a valuable utility that I'm sure at the very least companies/individuals would crowdsource them on a reoccurring basis, keeping them up to date.

The value of this technology has been established, it's not leaving anytime soon.

Re: The future of software development is software developers

#417
there's a huge flaw in the logic here but I can't pinpoint it

we've never had machines that can reason. today, they reason badly. tomorrow, they'll reason better. not all ai research white papers will pan out, but some will. the ai research community is acutely aware of the limitations in reasoning; it's their whole mission right now. 100% chance someone will make progress. Analogous to the chip industry or self driving, in that regard

incremental improvements in reasoning will broaden the dead zone for human developers

what difference does it make if in 20 years NASA still needs a few human developers but the rest of us are unemployed? ai agents still can't get you to the moon with one shot coding session in 2045? who cares?

the "still can't" we really need to be worried about is "politicians still can't consider UBI"

Re: The future of software development is software developers

#418
post #398

Most people in this thread are quibbling about the exact degree of utility LLMs provide, which a tedious argument. What's more interesting to me is, per the article, the concern regarding everyone who is leaning into LLMs without realizing (or downplaying) the exorbitant, externalized cost. Our current LLM usage is being subsidized to the point of being free by outside investment. One day when the well runs dry, you…

> One day when the well runs dry, you must be able to either pay the actual cost What multiple of the current cost do you expect? Currently, GitHub Copilot and ChatGPT for Business cost $19/month and €29/month respectively. Even a 10×–20× increase will still be economically viable in a professional setting if the tools continue to save hours of work.

Remember when Uber was cheap and showed you the surge pricing multiple?

Re: The future of software development is software developers

#420

Most people in this thread are quibbling about the exact degree of utility LLMs provide, which a tedious argument. What's more interesting to me is, per the article, the concern regarding everyone who is leaning into LLMs without realizing (or downplaying) the exorbitant, externalized cost. Our current LLM usage is being subsidized to the point of being free by outside investment. One day when the well runs dry, you…

I always liken it to using Uber in ~2012. It was fun to get around major metro areas for dirt cheap. But then prices rose dramatically over the next decade+ as the company was forced to wean itself off of VC subsidies.
Post reply on HN