The future of software development is software developers • Hacker News Board

Re: The future of software development is software developers

#201

Post by user34283 » Tue, Dec 30, 2025, 10:27 AM UTC

llmslave2 wrote: post #184

user34283 wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How would you know whether he is an expert on the topic of software engineering or not? For all I know, he is more competent than you; he figured out how to utilize Claude Code in a productive way, which is a point for him. I'd have to guess whether you are an expert working on software not well suited for AI, or just average with a stubborn attitude towards AI and potentially not having tried the latest generation o…

> How would you know whether he is an expert on the topic of software engineering or not? Because of their views on the effectiveness of AI agents for generating code.

Considering those views are shared by a number of high profile, skilled engineers, this is obviously no basis for doubting someone's expertise.

Re: The future of software development is software developers

#202

Post by embedding-shape » Tue, Dec 30, 2025, 10:28 AM UTC

bigstrat2003 wrote: post #147

mohsen1 wrote: post #3

I really really want this to be true. I want to be relevant. I don’t know what to do if all those predictions are true and there is no need (or very little need) for programmers anymore. But something tells me “this time is different” is different this time for real. Coding AIs design software better than me, review code better than me, find hard-to-find bugs better than me, plan long-running projects better than me,…

> Coding AIs design software better than me, review code better than me, find hard-to-find bugs better than me, plan long-running projects better than me, make decisions based on research, literature, and also the state of our projects better than me. That is just not true, assuming you have a modicum of competence (which I assume you do). AIs suck at all these tasks; they are not even as good as an inexperienced hum…

For all we know, you both could comparing using a Nokia 3310 and a workstation PC based on the hardware, but you both just say "this computer is better than that computer".

There are a ton of models out there, ran in a ton of different ways, that can be used in different ways with different harnesses, and people use different workflows. There is just so many variables involved, that I don't think it's neither fair nor accurate for anyone to claim "This is obviously better" or "This is obviously impossible".

I've been in situations where I hit my head against some hard to find bug for days, then I put "AI" (but what? No one knows) to it and it solves it in 20 minutes. I've also asked "AI" to do trivial work that it still somehow fucked up, even if I could probably have asked a non-programmer friend to do it and they'd be able to.

The variance is great, and the fact that system/developer/user prompts matter a lot for what the responses you get, makes it even harder to fairly compare things like this without having the actual chat logs in front of you.

Re: The future of software development is software developers

#203

Post by encyclopedism » Tue, Dec 30, 2025, 10:28 AM UTC

ChicagoDave wrote: post #187

Here’s how I see it. Writing code or building software well requires knowledge of logic, data structures, reliable messaging, and separation of concerns. You can learn a foreign language just fine, but if you mangle the pronunciation, no one will talk to you. Same thing with hacking at software without understanding the above elements. Your software will be mangled and no one will use it.

Software doesn't have to be good academically speaking. It just needs to furnish a useful function to be economically viable.

LLM's may not generate the best code but they need only to generate useful code to warrant their use.

Re: The future of software development is software developers

#204

Post by embedding-shape » Tue, Dec 30, 2025, 10:30 AM UTC

1718627440 wrote: post #182

pfannkuchen wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think part of what is happening here is that different developers on HN have very different jobs and skill levels. If you are just writing a large volume of code over and over again to do the same sort of things, then LLMs probably could take your job. A lot of people have joined the industry over time, and it seems like the intelligence bar moved lower and lower over time, particularly for people churning out larg…

> If you are just writing a large volume of code over and over again But why would you do that? Wouldn't you just have your own library of code eventually that you just sell and sell again with little tweaks? Same money for far less work.

People, at least novice developers, tend to prefer fast and quick boilerplate that makes them look effective, over spending one hour sitting just thinking and designing, then implementing some simple abstraction. This is true today, and been true for as long as I've been in programming.

Besides, not all programming work can be abstracted into a library and reused across projects, not because it's technically infeasible, but because the client doesn't want to, cannot for legal reasons or the developer process at the client's organization simply doesn't support that workflow. Those are just the reasons from the top of my head, that I've encountered before, and I'm sure there is more reasons.

Re: The future of software development is software developers

#205

Post by encyclopedism » Tue, Dec 30, 2025, 10:34 AM UTC

pjmlp wrote: post #143

As someone having watched AI systems being good enough to replace jobs like content creation on CMS, this is being in denial. Yes software developer are still going to be need, except much fewer of us, exactly like fully automated factories still need a few humans around, to control and build the factory in first place.

I concur with your sentiments.

Am puzzled why so many on HN cannot see this. I guess most users on HN are employed? Your employers - let me tell you - are positively salivating at the prospect of firing you. The better LLM's get the fewer of you will be needed.

Re: The future of software development is software developers

#206

Post by encyclopedism » Tue, Dec 30, 2025, 10:37 AM UTC

sokoloff wrote: post #194

frankie_t wrote: post #186

Just like the pro-AI articles, it reads to me like a sales pitch. And the ending only adds to it: the author invites to hire companies to contract him for training. I would only be happy if in the end the author turns out to be right. But as the things stand right now, I can see a significant boost to my own productivity, which leads me to believe that fewer people are going to be needed.

When coal powered engines became more efficient, demand for coal went UP. It went up because vastly more things could now be cost effectively be coal-powered. I can see a future where software development goes the same way. My wife works in science and I see all kinds of things in a casual observation of her work that could be made more efficient with good software support. But not by enough to pay six-figures per ye…

Many HN users may point to Jevons paradox, I would like to point out that it may very well work up until the point that it doesn't. After all a chicken has always seen the farmer as benevolent provider of food, shelter and safety, that is until of course THAT day when he decides he doesn't.

Re: The future of software development is software developers

#207

Post by jvanderbot » Tue, Dec 30, 2025, 10:38 AM UTC

embedding-shape wrote: post #199

chii wrote: post #192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I’m basically just the conductor of all those processes. a car moves faster than you, can last longer than you, and can carry much more than you. But somehow, people don't seem to be scared of cars displacing them(yet)? Perhaps autodriving would in the near future, but there still needs to be someone making decisions on how best to utilize that car - surely, it isn't deciding to go to destination A without someone…

> a car moves faster than you, can last longer than you, and can carry much more than you. But somehow, people don't seem to be scared of cars displacing them(yet)? People whose life were based around using horses for transportation were very scared of cars replacing them though, and correctly so, because horses for transportation is something people do for leisure today, not necessity. I feel like that's a more apt…

Analogies are not going to work. Bug it's just as likely that, in the worst case, we are stage coach drivers who have to use cars when we just really love the quiet slowness of horses.

Re: The future of software development is software developers

#208

Post by lelanthran » Tue, Dec 30, 2025, 10:38 AM UTC

mohsen1 wrote: post #3

I really really want this to be true. I want to be relevant. I don’t know what to do if all those predictions are true and there is no need (or very little need) for programmers anymore. But something tells me “this time is different” is different this time for real. Coding AIs design software better than me, review code better than me, find hard-to-find bugs better than me, plan long-running projects better than me,…

> Coding AIs design software better than me, review code better than me, find hard-to-find bugs better than me, plan long-running projects better than me, make decisions based on research, literature, and also the state of our projects better than me.

They don't do any of that better than me; they do it poorer and faster, but well enough for most of the time.

Re: The future of software development is software developers

#209

Post by lelanthran » Tue, Dec 30, 2025, 10:39 AM UTC

chii wrote: post #192

mohsen1 wrote: post #3

I really really want this to be true. I want to be relevant. I don’t know what to do if all those predictions are true and there is no need (or very little need) for programmers anymore. But something tells me “this time is different” is different this time for real. Coding AIs design software better than me, review code better than me, find hard-to-find bugs better than me, plan long-running projects better than me,…

> I’m basically just the conductor of all those processes. a car moves faster than you, can last longer than you, and can carry much more than you. But somehow, people don't seem to be scared of cars displacing them(yet)? Perhaps autodriving would in the near future, but there still needs to be someone making decisions on how best to utilize that car - surely, it isn't deciding to go to destination A without someone…

> a car moves faster than you, can last longer than you, and can carry much more than you. But somehow, people don't seem to be scared of cars displacing them(yet)?

???

Cars replaced horses, not people.

In this scenario you are the horse.

Re: The future of software development is software developers

#210

Post by trashb » Tue, Dec 30, 2025, 10:40 AM UTC

> Edgar Dijkstra called it nearly 50 years ago: we will never be programming in English, or French, or Spanish. Natural languages have not evolved to be precise enough and unambiguous enough. Semantic ambiguity and language entropy will always defeat this ambition.

This is the most important quote for any AI coding discussion.

Anyone that doesn't understand how the tools they use came to be is doomed to reinvent them.

> The folly of many people now claiming that “prompts are the new source code”,

These are the same people that create applications in MS Excel.