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Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

electrek.co

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Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#461

Post by yibg »

modeless wrote: post #391
bdcravens wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Elon's personality has been known before he ever came out in support of Trump. Think back to when he called someone trying to rescue kids a "pedo" because they ignored his idea of building a submarine. Moreover, his inability to deliver on promises has been a well-known fact for years.

He regularly delivers on promises. What he consistently fails to deliver on is timelines.

I guess that's true if you stretch timelines to infinity. I'm still waiting on:

- L5 autonomous driving

- $35k Teslas

- Hyperloop

- Lunar trips to the moon on spacex

- Humans on Mars

But I guess if we just consider those delayed, then all good.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#462

Post by hdgvhicv »

ulfw wrote: post #402
mr_mitm wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is an entire Wikipedia article about Musk's (mostly) failed predictions: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autono...

'failed predictions' I am an old man. In my youth we called this lies. Or investor deception. Some would even go as far as calling what he claims fraud but hey...

When the weather forecast said it would rain on Friday and it didn’t was that also called a lie?

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#464

Post by godelski »

eru wrote: post #441
godelski wrote: post #434

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd say more in Doge and Bitcoin but you could argue with his stocks even though they're announced/scheduled.

As Matt Levine points out, Musk does plenty of crypto price moving with his tweets, but he doesn't seem to trade on them.

Do you have evidence on this? Seems like it would be fairly difficult to track. Have people been able to associate his wallets with him?

Maybe I'm misremembering but I seem to recall him (Tesla?) selling a bunch of doge and bitcoin after months of pumping despite some big drops between.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#465

Post by literalAardvark »

riffraff wrote: post #344
array_key_first wrote: post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I really, really doubt FSD is the limiter of European sales. It's pricing and competition. The US car market is laughably uncompetitive, with most manufacturers opting to make luxury landboats. It's easy to compete when all your competitors refuse to introduce an EV under, like, 50 grand.

I think musk's descent into politics also impacted the Tesla sales in Europe.

Absolutely. I know a couple of their early adopters in the EU and they were ashamed to drive their cars once that mess started. They've all since sold them (at massive losses).

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#466

Post by aforwardslash »

kortilla wrote: post #383
aforwardslash wrote: post #312

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Reusable rockets are a rehash of old tech that was considered - at the time - not economically feasible; Given how subject to interpretation spacex commercial numbers are, there is nothing indicating a clear cost or efficiency advantage compared with traditional launch systems so far. What we clearly know is that using software development methodologies to building critical hardware is as a bad idea as it sounds.

There is no “subject to interpretation”. The costs they charge for launches are lower than any other provider by a significant margin. And fundraising docs have shown many times that the Falcon launches make money and Starlink was just starting to make money about 1.5 years ago. > What we clearly know is that using software development methodologies to building critical hardware is as a bad idea as it sounds. This me…

Spacex is a private company; this means "we" know nothing about actual costs. Fundraising documents dont show this either, as they are a washed-down version for, well, fundraising purposes. As an investor, it is common practice to sign an NDA just to get access to actual somewhat relevant numbers, so any actual relevant info isnt public.

Also it seems you conflate "making money" with being profitable - its not the same thing. A private company can easily "massage" the PNL sheet to present itself as at a break-even point, and some back-of-the-napkin calculation seems to point to it. Granted, I may be wrong, but the fact is we don't know for sure.

You also seem to not be aware that there are multiple internet satellite providers with south pole coverage, as well as other regions in the globe.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#467

Post by Earw0rm »

hdgvhicv wrote: post #462
ulfw wrote: post #402

Earlier quoted context omitted.

'failed predictions' I am an old man. In my youth we called this lies. Or investor deception. Some would even go as far as calling what he claims fraud but hey...

When the weather forecast said it would rain on Friday and it didn’t was that also called a lie?

Weather forecasts are a best-effort.

CEOs should have a reasonable grasp of what's possible for their team on a given short/medium timeline.

It won't be perfect but should be ballpark.

Elon and those like him make these statements with no reference to realistic project delivery timelines, business capacity or anything else - despite having all of that information readily available.

That's not a best guess, it's making shit up.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#468

Post by nrhrjrjrjtntbt »

jqpabc123 wrote: post #5

For years, we’ve been told that the 4680 cell was the “holy grail” that would allow Tesla to produce a $25,000 electric car. For years, we've been told a lot of things that have never come to fruition. Just 6 months ago, we were told that Robotaxi would be available to half the US population by the end of the year. https://electrek.co/2025/07/23/elon-musk-with-straight-face-...

BYD Atto 3 enters the chat

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#469

Post by hdgvhicv »

eru wrote: post #346
specialp wrote: post #324

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Somehow his company is worth ~1.6 trillion dollars, with most of that valuation being confidence in his predictions. He is predicting humanoid useful robots soon. Tesla's valuation defies reason

Well, feel free to short Tesla. (And I say that with conviction. https://hindenburgresearch.com/ are my heroes.)

The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#470

Post by IndrekR »

hdgvhicv wrote: post #462
ulfw wrote: post #402

Earlier quoted context omitted.

'failed predictions' I am an old man. In my youth we called this lies. Or investor deception. Some would even go as far as calling what he claims fraud but hey...

When the weather forecast said it would rain on Friday and it didn’t was that also called a lie?

If the input to the weather forecast is mostly /dev/random, then yes, that is called a lie. There is a very big difference between modelling chaotic systems and providing random noise.
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