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The future of software development is software developers

codemanship.wordpress.com

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Re: The future of software development is software developers

#111
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This reads like shilling/advertisement.. Coding AIs are struggling for anything remotely complex, make up crap and present it as research, write tests that are just "return true", and won't ever question a decision you make. Those twenty engineers must not have produced much.

No it doesn’t read like shilling and advertisement, it’s tiring hearing people continually dismiss coding agents as if they have not massively improved and are driving real value despite limitations and they are only just getting started. I’ve done things with Claude I never thought possible for myself to do, and I’ve done things where Claude made the whole effort take twice as long and 3x more of my time. It’s not l…

The paradigm shift hit the world like a wall. I know entire teams where the manager thinks AI is bullshit and the entire team is not allowed to use AI.

I love coding. But reality is reality and these fools just aren’t keeping pace with how fast the world is changing.

Re: The future of software development is software developers

#112
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When prices go down or product velocity goes up we'll start believing in the new 20x developer. Until then, it doesn't align with most experiences and just reads like fiction. You'll notice no one ever seems to talk about the products they're making 20x faster or cheaper.

+1 - I wish at least one of these AI boosters had shown us a real commercialised product they've built.

Are you joking? You realize entire companies and startups are littered with ppl who only use AI.

Re: The future of software development is software developers

#113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AI boosters? Like people are planted by Sam Altman like the way they hire crowds for political events or something? Hey! Maybe I’m AI! You’re absolutely right! In seriousness: I’m sure there are projects that are heavily powered by Claude, myself and a lot of other people I know use Claude almost exclusively to write and then leverage it as a tool when reviewing. Almost everyone I hear that has this super negative ho…

I never said "planted", that is your own assumption, albeit a wrong one. I do respect it though, as it is at least a product of a human mind. But you don't have to be "planted" to champion an idea, you are clearly championing it out of some kind of conviction, many seem to do. I was just giving you a bit of reality check. If you want to show me how to "guess where things are heading" / I am actually one of the early…

I’m an expert in what I do. A professional, and few people can do what I do. I have to say you are wrong. AI is changing the game. What you’ve written here might’ve been more relevant about 9 months ago, but everything has changed.

Re: The future of software development is software developers

#114
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This reads like shilling/advertisement.. Coding AIs are struggling for anything remotely complex, make up crap and present it as research, write tests that are just "return true", and won't ever question a decision you make. Those twenty engineers must not have produced much.

I think part of what is happening here is that different developers on HN have very different jobs and skill levels. If you are just writing a large volume of code over and over again to do the same sort of things, then LLMs probably could take your job. A lot of people have joined the industry over time, and it seems like the intelligence bar moved lower and lower over time, particularly for people churning out larg…

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Re: The future of software development is software developers

#115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No it doesn’t read like shilling and advertisement, it’s tiring hearing people continually dismiss coding agents as if they have not massively improved and are driving real value despite limitations and they are only just getting started. I’ve done things with Claude I never thought possible for myself to do, and I’ve done things where Claude made the whole effort take twice as long and 3x more of my time. It’s not l…

> I’ve done things with Claude I never thought possible for myself to do, That's the point champ. They seem great to people when they apply them to some domain they are not competent it, that's because they cannot evaluate the issues. So you've never programmed but can now scaffold a React application and basic backend in a couple of hours? Good for you, but for the love of god have someone more experienced check it…

What you wrote here was relevant about 9 months ago. It’s now outdated. The pace and velocity of improvement of Ai can only be described as violent. It is so fast that there are many people like you who don’t get it.

Re: The future of software development is software developers

#116
post #46
post #3

I really really want this to be true. I want to be relevant. I don’t know what to do if all those predictions are true and there is no need (or very little need) for programmers anymore. But something tells me “this time is different” is different this time for real. Coding AIs design software better than me, review code better than me, find hard-to-find bugs better than me, plan long-running projects better than me,…

I think I've been using AI wrong. I can't understand testimonies like this. Most times I try to use AI for a task, it is a shitshow, and I have to rewrite everything anyway.

Try Claude. And partner with it on building something complex.

Re: The future of software development is software developers

#117
post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Aren't they also losing money on the marginal inference job?

I think it is very unlikely that they are charging less money for tokens than it costs them to serve those tokens. If they are then they're in trouble, because the more paying customers they get the more money they lose!

Operating at a loss to buy market share is pretty much the norm at this point. Look behind the curtain at any “unicorn” for the past 3 decades and you’ll see VCs propping up losses until the general population has grown too dependent on the service to walk away when the pricing catches up to reality.

Re: The future of software development is software developers

#118
In past cases of automation, quantity was the foot-in-the-door and quality followed. Early manufactured items were in many cases inferior to hand-built items, but one was affordable and the other not.

Software is incredibly expensive and has made up for it with low marginal costs. Many small markets could potentially be served by slop software, and it's better than what they would have otherwise gotten (which is nothing).

Re: The future of software development is software developers

#119
post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think I've been using AI wrong. I can't understand testimonies like this. Most times I try to use AI for a task, it is a shitshow, and I have to rewrite everything anyway.

Do you tell AI the patterns/tools/architecture you want? Telling agents to "build me XYZ, make it gud!" is likely to precede a mess, telling it to build a modular monolith using your library/tool list, your preferred folder structure, other patterns/algorithms you use, etc will end you up with something that might have some minor style issues or not be perfectly canonical, but will be approximately correct within a r…

Honestly, even this isn't really true anymore. With Opus 4.5 and 5.2 Codex in tools like Cursor, Claude Code, or Codex CLI, "just do the thing" is a viable strategy for a shockingly large category of tasks.

Re: The future of software development is software developers

#120

I read a book called "Blood in the machine". It's the history of the Luddites. It really put everything into perspective to where we are now. Pre-industrial revolution whole towns and families built clothing and had techniques to make quality clothes. When the machines came out it wasn't overnight but it wiped out nearly all cottage industries. The clothing it made wasn't to the same level of quality, but you could c…

Does the analogy hold though? We had "free clothes" for years, decades now. I don't mean cheap I mean literally free, as in $0.0 software. Cheaper software isn't new. Also there are still clothe designers, fashion runways, and expensive Patagonia vests today. The clothing industry is radically different from back then but it's definitely not gone.

I posted elsewhere, but you are looking at the wrong part of the chain.

We have cheap (or free) software for large markets, and certain small markets where software developers with hobbies have made something. If every niche that will never be able to afford a large 6-figure custom software could get slop software for an affordable price, then that establishes a foot-hold for working its way up the quality ladder.

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