Is anybody surprised by the cratering demand for the Cybertruck (directly attributable to 4680 troubles)? Tesla sold the idea of a crazy space truck to a bunch of techie dorks, who then pulled out of the deal when faced with the reality of owning a vehicle that they have to clean with Barkeeper's Friend. This was the obvious result.
Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%
381–390 of 836 posts
Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%
#382Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Tesla is actually starting to make cathodes in house via a dry process, which is why they are no longer buying cathode material from this supplier. The latter part of this is speculative. Tesla may have begun shipping dry cathodes but it isn't clear that they're capable of matching the former third-party volume. Tesla would absolutely need the additional 4680 volume if Cybertruck sales were meeting their original p…
The entire article is speculative.
The poster to which I responded and the article are each speculating on the "why" for this contract. That said, we do not need to speculate about Cybertruck sales - Business Insider reported that Tesla sold only 5,400 of them in 2025Q3.
We know from this that they do not need the same level of third-party 4680 capacity, and (call it speculative if you so desire) this is the most parsimonious explanation for the L&F write down.
Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%
#383Earlier quoted context omitted.
The best counter argument to that is that he did manage to predict/make into reality electric vehicles (when going into that industry was crazy) and reusable rockets. If someone makes a thousand moonshot attempts but still succeeds with two that's impressive.
Reusable rockets are a rehash of old tech that was considered - at the time - not economically feasible; Given how subject to interpretation spacex commercial numbers are, there is nothing indicating a clear cost or efficiency advantage compared with traditional launch systems so far. What we clearly know is that using software development methodologies to building critical hardware is as a bad idea as it sounds.
There is no “subject to interpretation”. The costs they charge for launches are lower than any other provider by a significant margin. And fundraising docs have shown many times that the Falcon launches make money and Starlink was just starting to make money about 1.5 years ago.
> What we clearly know is that using software development methodologies to building critical hardware is as a bad idea as it sounds.
This methodology is what provides high speed, low latency internet to the South Pole and every other spot on earth allowed by regulatory.
Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%
#384Earlier quoted context omitted.
The best counter argument to that is that he did manage to predict/make into reality electric vehicles (when going into that industry was crazy) and reusable rockets. If someone makes a thousand moonshot attempts but still succeeds with two that's impressive.
Reusable rockets are a rehash of old tech that was considered - at the time - not economically feasible; Given how subject to interpretation spacex commercial numbers are, there is nothing indicating a clear cost or efficiency advantage compared with traditional launch systems so far. What we clearly know is that using software development methodologies to building critical hardware is as a bad idea as it sounds.
I’ve got as much of a distaste for Musk as anybody else these days, but SpaceX’s methodology has if nothing else netted them velocity and turnaround times that no other company or governmental space agency has been able to hold a candle to thus far, and do it with a very low failure rate. They’re clearly doing something right.
Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%
#385Earlier quoted context omitted.
Remember how everyone kept saying tesla is doomed because any minute now the old OEMs were going to storm in and kill their EV business? In actuality, those OEMs are getting killed by Tesla and Chinese startups. You are making the same argument for autonomy. Old OEMS cannot compete in this space at all. Waymo cannot compete on price with Tesla.
Sure, they're a bit ahead but Mercedes has level 3 self driving and they didnt celebrate killing a bunch of people (and not lowering the deficit) by prancing around with a chainsaw.[0] I feel like people will be willing to wait until next year for the Alphabet or Mercedes version, but maybe I'm overestimating the average person's attention span or underestimating how far behind the competition is. [0] https://www.new…
The mercedes L3 thing is a gimped press gimmick/vaporware. You won’t a single non-press video from an owner just using it. Not a single one.
Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%
#386Earlier quoted context omitted.
We voted with our wallets. Between communism and Nazis, communism was the lesser evil. This is Musk's WW3.
Communism has killed hundreds of millions of innocent people. It's not cute or funny.
Every decade, global capitalism decides that 100 million people don't need to eat and they get to starve to death. In the same time period, slightly less than that die from lack of medical care the market decides they don't need.
And that's just contemporary capitalism. Hundreds of millions starved in famines, and starving people got to watch as the food they themselves harvested was shipped to markets that would pay more for it. Millions were enslaved, and cultures, races and communities were wiped off the faces of continents in the name of profit.
Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%
#387Earlier quoted context omitted.
Just stating that he does seem to inspire and build teams/orgs that do great things. Both SpaceX and Tesla are accomplishments if you consider where their competitors are.
> Both SpaceX and Tesla are accomplishments if you consider where their competitors are. CATL, BYD, and other Chinese manufacturers are absolutely killing it at Tesla's expense, Because their markets have actual, sharp-elbowed competition requiring actual innovation.
For Tesla maybe (if you ignore self driving as useless), but that doesn’t apply to spacex.
Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%
#388Earlier quoted context omitted.
That’s underselling the Leaf quite a lot. The original 2011 model had 107 HP and 207 ft-lb of torque (later bumped to 147 and 236, respectively), which puts it handily above several gas models of gas cars that don’t get labeled as golf carts. It was a perfectly fine car, it just had a poor battery.
The issue is it had the range of a golf cart. So it basically ruled out 98% of the population that needs a car that can go on road trips. Tesla was the first to take range seriously.
As a second car in a two-car family, we love our Leaf. It’s obviously unusable for road trips, but in a country with more registered cars than drivers, there are plenty of multi-car households where one could be a Leaf-class (cheap but still reliable) electric.
Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%
#389Is anybody surprised by the cratering demand for the Cybertruck (directly attributable to 4680 troubles)? Tesla sold the idea of a crazy space truck to a bunch of techie dorks, who then pulled out of the deal when faced with the reality of owning a vehicle that they have to clean with Barkeeper's Friend. This was the obvious result.
I would buy a Cybertruck tomorrow if it had a gas engine. I would buy a $10,000 or $15,000 gas generator add-on if it enabled unlimited range (provided I have gasoline).
There are just too many places, even in California, where I have to limit my trip because of electric range.
I'm surprised no one has done the generator.
Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%
#390Earlier quoted context omitted.
Remember how everyone kept saying tesla is doomed because any minute now the old OEMs were going to storm in and kill their EV business? In actuality, those OEMs are getting killed by Tesla and Chinese startups. You are making the same argument for autonomy. Old OEMS cannot compete in this space at all. Waymo cannot compete on price with Tesla.
> Waymo cannot compete on price with Tesla It's a race between how fast Waymo's COGS can decline and how fast Tesla's FSD can achieve actual self-driving. At this moment, given all the evidence available, my inclination is that Waymo is in a better spot.
I don’t think your inclination is unreasonable. Having taken probably like a hundred rides with about an even Tesla/Waymo split in SF, Teslas feel smoother and less robotic, but of course if they felt safety was where it needs to be, they’d be driverless by now.
It’s a bit of a bet. It feels like Tesla is real close, and if they get there, Waymo has no way to compete with Tesla’s manufacturing prowess and vertical integration.