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Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

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Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#311

Post by rich_sasha »

nemomarx wrote: post #2

Tesla stock dipped a little today it seems but it's still up 8 percent over the month. I really don't understand those investors and how they price a struggling company so highly.

My take is there are not really any reasonable Tesla investors left. Due to a steady supply of Real Believers, anyone with a short bet got burnt time after time.

So these people are no longer shorting. Sane long-only people, likewise have been out for a long time. You're left with a clique of people who won't sell regardless, and when Elon promises to make ice cream with robotaxies, they'll buy a bit more stock.

When only irrational people trade something, the price and market for it are irrational too.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#312

Post by aforwardslash »

qoez wrote: post #203
mr_mitm wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is an entire Wikipedia article about Musk's (mostly) failed predictions: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autono...

The best counter argument to that is that he did manage to predict/make into reality electric vehicles (when going into that industry was crazy) and reusable rockets. If someone makes a thousand moonshot attempts but still succeeds with two that's impressive.

Reusable rockets are a rehash of old tech that was considered - at the time - not economically feasible; Given how subject to interpretation spacex commercial numbers are, there is nothing indicating a clear cost or efficiency advantage compared with traditional launch systems so far. What we clearly know is that using software development methodologies to building critical hardware is as a bad idea as it sounds.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#313

Post by aforwardslash »

andsoitis wrote: post #302
BoiledCabbage wrote: post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's incredible there is something wrong with a group of people completely unable to see when someone is lying to them. And no matter how many times they are lied to, as long as they are rich enough they believe them. I don't know what to think anymore about this. He has continuously conned his way along and does it just long enough to jump to the next con. Tesla is crashing and somehow people though giving him a hug…

> Tesla is crashing and somehow people thought giving him a huge pay package made sense. There’s only upside for shareholders. Musk’s package is entirely performance-contingent and structured as 12 stock grants. And the targets are very ambitious: valuation ($8.5 trillion) and operational goals (20M cars, 10M FSD, 1M robotaxis, $400B profit) over 10 years. https://poole.ncsu.edu/thought-leadership/article/inside-the.…

> There’s only upside for shareholders

On the other side of the coin, they really don't have a choice; either they attempt to provide leverage (and using non-realistic goals is excellent to avoid actually having to pay it), or any major misshap with any of the other businesses that may have as collateral tesla stock (either directly or indirectly) would basically bankrupt the company. And the scenario where Elon would attempt to do a sort of firesale on purpose just to take revenge isnt far-fetched either;

IMO The only way forward for them is to keep him happy for now, while attempting to either do damage control or graceful exits.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#314

Post by SoftTalker »

stefan_ wrote: post #233
SoftTalker wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All BEV sales, not just Tesla, are tanking, at least in the USA. Ford and and others have retreated on their plans as well. Tesla may be worse off because of Musk's extracurricular antics but BEVs are not selling well.

It feels like you already lost the whole point of this thread. Then why is the stock up?

If I could explain why stocks do what they do I would not be writing code for a living.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#315

Post by SoftTalker »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #152
SoftTalker wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All BEV sales, not just Tesla, are tanking, at least in the USA. Ford and and others have retreated on their plans as well. Tesla may be worse off because of Musk's extracurricular antics but BEVs are not selling well.

In the US, which is due to policy, which is temporary. The rest of the world remains very hungry for affordable electric vehicles [1], which only China seems interested in producing at scale. Once that manufacturing capacity and distribution systems are spun up (BYD has its own car carrier for exports, the BYD Shenzhen, for example [2]), it will remain in production. "Can Tesla survive until regime change?" is an imp…

I'd consider an affordable BEV. There are none sold in the US, and nobody seems interested in making one. Closest thing might be a used Nissan Leaf.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#316

Post by andsoitis »

aforwardslash wrote: post #313
andsoitis wrote: post #302

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Tesla is crashing and somehow people thought giving him a huge pay package made sense. There’s only upside for shareholders. Musk’s package is entirely performance-contingent and structured as 12 stock grants. And the targets are very ambitious: valuation ($8.5 trillion) and operational goals (20M cars, 10M FSD, 1M robotaxis, $400B profit) over 10 years. https://poole.ncsu.edu/thought-leadership/article/inside-the.…

> There’s only upside for shareholders On the other side of the coin, they really don't have a choice; either they attempt to provide leverage (and using non-realistic goals is excellent to avoid actually having to pay it), or any major misshap with any of the other businesses that may have as collateral tesla stock (either directly or indirectly) would basically bankrupt the company. And the scenario where Elon woul…

I think this is a misread. They want extraordinary returns and think Musk can deliver it. Push him, make more money.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#317

Post by cosmicgadget »

1121redblackgo wrote: post #140
mr_mitm wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is an entire Wikipedia article about Musk's (mostly) failed predictions: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autono...

At what point is it fair to call the list something other than ‘predictions’

"Forward-looking statements" aka legal stock pumping.

(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forward-looking_statement)

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#318

Post by doubleg72 »

andsoitis wrote: post #301
vel0city wrote: post #279

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In my non-Telsa, I get decent suggestions with live data built in to the car. I also get suggestions through multiple different apps of my choice through Android Auto. In a Tesla, you get what Tesla gives you. I haven't bothered with any accounts in years for third-party chargers. Most just plug in and negotiate payment automatically. Others have credit card readers on them. I haven't personally encountered out of se…

> In my non-Telsa, I get decent suggestions with live data built in to the car. Do you mind sharing what EV you drive?

My Silverado EV does this

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#319

Post by andsoitis »

hshdhdhj4444 wrote: post #290
spwa4 wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think they mean grift or even fraud, since they were definitely meant to attract investment. Now excuse me while I go check on where my 2016 full-self-driving Tesla car. It was supposed to pick me up 9 years ago, something must have happened.

I still don’t understand how they haven’t been sued for the hundreds of millions they took as a deposit for a new Roadster…8 years ago!

> I still don’t understand how they haven’t been sued for the hundreds of millions they took as a deposit for a new Roadster…8 years ago!

Because you can cancel your reservation and get your deposited refunded. See terms at Tesla.com

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#320

Post by cyberax »

andsoitis wrote: post #306
cyberax wrote: post #255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

EVs are in the Cambrian Explosion state in China right now. There are dozens of companies fiercely competing on price and features. The two most popular EVs in China are the Wuling Mini and the Geely Xingyuan. The first one costs $4500 for the base model, and the second one is $9800. And you can get a very decent EV for $15k with plenty of options. In 2-3 years, these $5k and $10k cars will only get better, and they'…

> Traditional auto manufacturers are dead. Full stop. They just haven't realized it yet. Tesla had a chance to compete in this market with Model 2 but Musk decided to blow their lead on a completely stillborn and gimmick-filled robotaxi. Not sure whether you know, but Geely entered the automotive business in 1997 (founded in 1986). The company has subsidiaries / joint ventures with automakers like Volvo, Polestar, Pr…

Thanks! Correction: American and probably some European automakers are doomed.

Even Toyota is slowly waking up, with a reasonable bZ3X SUV for $15k (China only).

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