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Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

electrek.co

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Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#301

Post by andsoitis »

vel0city wrote: post #279
hvb2 wrote: post #243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Pretty much every electric car has charging stops built-in to the navigation That's my expectation too. > For some the quality of the data isn’t as high, but it will be there. This is a real issue. You might be stranded with low quality suggestions. Chargers that don't work. The large number of accounts you need to have as every charger has their own etcetera

In my non-Telsa, I get decent suggestions with live data built in to the car. I also get suggestions through multiple different apps of my choice through Android Auto. In a Tesla, you get what Tesla gives you. I haven't bothered with any accounts in years for third-party chargers. Most just plug in and negotiate payment automatically. Others have credit card readers on them. I haven't personally encountered out of se…

> In my non-Telsa, I get decent suggestions with live data built in to the car.

Do you mind sharing what EV you drive?

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#302

Post by andsoitis »

BoiledCabbage wrote: post #172
jqpabc123 wrote: post #5

For years, we’ve been told that the 4680 cell was the “holy grail” that would allow Tesla to produce a $25,000 electric car. For years, we've been told a lot of things that have never come to fruition. Just 6 months ago, we were told that Robotaxi would be available to half the US population by the end of the year. https://electrek.co/2025/07/23/elon-musk-with-straight-face-...

It's incredible there is something wrong with a group of people completely unable to see when someone is lying to them. And no matter how many times they are lied to, as long as they are rich enough they believe them. I don't know what to think anymore about this. He has continuously conned his way along and does it just long enough to jump to the next con. Tesla is crashing and somehow people though giving him a hug…

> Tesla is crashing and somehow people thought giving him a huge pay package made sense.

There’s only upside for shareholders.

Musk’s package is entirely performance-contingent and structured as 12 stock grants.

And the targets are very ambitious: valuation ($8.5 trillion) and operational goals (20M cars, 10M FSD, 1M robotaxis, $400B profit) over 10 years.

https://poole.ncsu.edu/thought-leadership/article/inside-the...

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#303

Post by nutjob2 »

lysace wrote: post #165
nutjob2 wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe your brain could tell us where the batteries are being used and who is producing them. You know, evidence, instead of just something that resides in your brain.

> can only be used for the cybertruck vs > where the batteries are being used It's just a different battery cell size with less overhead. 46 by 80 mm instead of e.g. 21 by 70 mm.

I get it, but if the supplier shutting it down suggests that its not being used anywhere else.

So besides speculation, where is the evidence. In particular I'm wondering about production within Tesla, another supplier, anything that suggests there is a model adopting them.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#304

Post by guru4consulting »

dzhiurgis wrote: post #231
_t9ow wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a myth that China heavily subsidises its EV industry. See e.g. this Bloomberg article titled "China Can't Cut EV Subsidies It Isn't Paying": https://archive.ph/5olix

How come BYD’s stock price is essentially flat?

We often think market is rational but it is not. If it is, then BYD would be priced like Tesla, and Tesla would have been priced like BYD.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#305

Post by woleium »

hshdhdhj4444 wrote: post #290
spwa4 wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think they mean grift or even fraud, since they were definitely meant to attract investment. Now excuse me while I go check on where my 2016 full-self-driving Tesla car. It was supposed to pick me up 9 years ago, something must have happened.

I still don’t understand how they haven’t been sued for the hundreds of millions they took as a deposit for a new Roadster…8 years ago!

Well the government was in the process of doing so, but somehow he seems to have doge’d it.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#306

Post by andsoitis »

cyberax wrote: post #255
zdragnar wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is an interesting take, considering several EVs from traditional manufacturers have been canned entirely.

EVs are in the Cambrian Explosion state in China right now. There are dozens of companies fiercely competing on price and features. The two most popular EVs in China are the Wuling Mini and the Geely Xingyuan. The first one costs $4500 for the base model, and the second one is $9800. And you can get a very decent EV for $15k with plenty of options. In 2-3 years, these $5k and $10k cars will only get better, and they'…

> Traditional auto manufacturers are dead. Full stop. They just haven't realized it yet. Tesla had a chance to compete in this market with Model 2 but Musk decided to blow their lead on a completely stillborn and gimmick-filled robotaxi.

Not sure whether you know, but Geely entered the automotive business in 1997 (founded in 1986).

The company has subsidiaries / joint ventures with automakers like Volvo, Polestar, Proton, Smart, Lotus, Renault, etc.

Lin Shufu, Geely’s founder and chairman bought just shy of 10% of Mercedes Benz in 2018, making him the second biggest individual shareholder in the German carmaker. The #1 spot is occupied by The Beijing Automotive Industry Holding Co. (BAIC), via its state-owned parent.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geely

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#307

Post by andsoitis »

_t9ow wrote: post #177
abirch wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not to mention China heavily subsidizing BYD.

It's a myth that China heavily subsidises its EV industry. See e.g. this Bloomberg article titled "China Can't Cut EV Subsidies It Isn't Paying": https://archive.ph/5olix

> It's a myth that China heavily subsidises its EV industry.

We must live in parallel universes.

From 2009 to 2022, China offered national purchase subsidies for EV buyers. Peak subsidies: ¥40,000–60,000 per vehicle (~$6k–9k). Combined with local subsidies, some buyers paid 30–40% less than market cost. These subsidies were phased down and formally ended in 2022, but the industry had already reached massive scale.

This policy alone created the world’s largest EV market.

Even after direct subsidies ended, China continues to provide: EV purchase tax exemptions (10% tax waived), extended through 2027.

China provides EV manufacturers with: Cheap or free land, Low-interest or state-directed loans, Preferential electricity pricing, Grants for factories, R&D, and tooling, State-backed battery supply chains.

China strategically subsidized battery production: CATL, BYD, and others received R&D grants, Guaranteed demand, Export financing.

China now controls ~75% of global lithium refining and ~80% of battery cell manufacturing.

This dramatically lowers EV costs versus foreign competitors.

No value judgement about subsidizing, but to say it is a myth that China has and continues to subsidize their EV industry is false.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#308

Post by andsoitis »

dzhiurgis wrote: post #231
_t9ow wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a myth that China heavily subsidises its EV industry. See e.g. this Bloomberg article titled "China Can't Cut EV Subsidies It Isn't Paying": https://archive.ph/5olix

How come BYD’s stock price is essentially flat?

> How come BYD’s stock price is essentially flat?

Their profit growth has slowed (significant drops in profit YoY). Even revenue has dropped in some quarters.

Investors had very high growth expectations given their past rapid expansion, but investors now see only moderate growth.

Intense competition and pricing pressure.

China EV market is slowing. Overcapacity is emerging over the sector and govt subsidies are softening.

Finally, global macro and sentiment towards Chinese stocks is cautious.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#309

Post by ggreer »

vel0city wrote: post #281
ggreer wrote: post #272

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which cell technology to use depends on the application. Tesla actually uses BYD blade batteries in some of their vehicles sold in Europe. The main issue with prismatic cells is that to be safe, they must be made with LFP chemistry, which hurts energy density. LFP is also worse at charging/discharging when cold, though battery management software mostly solves that. Cylindrical cells make sense for higher performance…

> The main issue with prismatic cells is that to be safe, they must be made with LFP chemistry, which hurts energy density This is obviously untrue. Tons of other chemistries have used prismatic cells with good safety as well. You think Macbooks and iPhones use LFP or cylinder cells? > Batteries with cylindrical cells were easier to repair, It can be just as easy to repair a prismatic battery as a cylinder battery. I…

Since this is a discussion about electric vehicles, I thought it could go without saying that I was talking about batteries in such vehicles, not batteries in consumer electronics that are 1,000 times smaller.

To use an analogy: If someone stores a gallon of gasoline in a single-walled plastic container, that's probably OK. But storing 1,000 gallons of gasoline without certain safety measures is unsafe. So it goes with battery capacities.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#310

Post by 7e »

mr_mitm wrote: post #106
jqpabc123 wrote: post #5

For years, we’ve been told that the 4680 cell was the “holy grail” that would allow Tesla to produce a $25,000 electric car. For years, we've been told a lot of things that have never come to fruition. Just 6 months ago, we were told that Robotaxi would be available to half the US population by the end of the year. https://electrek.co/2025/07/23/elon-musk-with-straight-face-...

There is an entire Wikipedia article about Musk's (mostly) failed predictions: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autono...

See also elonmusk.today
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