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Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

electrek.co

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Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#231
post #177
post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not to mention China heavily subsidizing BYD.

It's a myth that China heavily subsidises its EV industry. See e.g. this Bloomberg article titled "China Can't Cut EV Subsidies It Isn't Paying": https://archive.ph/5olix

How come BYD’s stock price is essentially flat?

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#232
post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> collapse suddenly If BYD was in the US I think we could check this box reeeeaaally quickly. It would make Tesla irrelevant.

> If BYD was in the US I think we could check this box reeeeaaally quickly. It would make Tesla irrelevant. Why? What's your logic?

The cars are higher quality and, more importantly, cheaper. US manufacturers can't make a cheap car to save their lives. The average age of cars on US roads is now 13 years, nobody can afford new cars.

There's a huge market opportunity here that all our manufacturers are missing, seemingly on purpose. BYD, and others, would absolutely sweep the competition.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

TSLA exposure is a call option on Musk succeeding (with success criteria being "TSLA price go up") regardless of reality. SpaceX is buying up Cybertrucks; is it illegal? Will anyone do anything about it? That sort of success (quasi fraud). The product is the stock and the hope there is a greater fool who will buy it eventually. SpaceX Buys over 1000 Cybertrucks - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46405984 - Decemb…

All BEV sales, not just Tesla, are tanking, at least in the USA. Ford and and others have retreated on their plans as well. Tesla may be worse off because of Musk's extracurricular antics but BEVs are not selling well.

It feels like you already lost the whole point of this thread. Then why is the stock up?

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The "new economy" is full of self-dealing. That's the result of loose (or non-existing) regulations on monopolies. It all starts with Wall Street controlling stocks on thousands of large companies that are ultimately owned by small groups of the same shareholders. Now it's evolving to large sectors owned by fewer and fewer people.

I don’t think self-dealing is new. Although it was eye-opening, when I learned that BlackRock, Vanguard, and Fidelity all own 5-10% of every company and competition between the companies they hold is not meaningful. Everyone just has to have nice steady predictable returns and nobody is allowed to innovate too far ahead of anyone else for fear of devaluing the real bosses’ other assets. I don’t even know what to call…

As I said, BlackRock and their friends were just the beginning. NVdia is trying to own a huge chunk of the AI space using their profits. Other tech companies are using a similar playbook. And of course they're all owned by Wall Street. The competition is highly controlled so the winners are all part of the same club.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand why this keeps working. The dude doing the hyping is widely hated. 67% of Americans have said they'll never consider buying a Tesla. 56% cite Musk as either the entire reason or part of the reason. [0] Tesla IS Elon Musk. Without him they're nothing, with him they can't access 2/3rds of the market. Why would anyone invest in that? [0] https://www.yahoo.com/news/two-thirds-of-americans-now-say-t...

TSLA investors: * don't believe the 67% will follow through with that after experiencing FSD * don't need 67% of Americans to purchase the car. Robotaxi use is plenty. * look beyond the American market and its pathetic 5% EV share.

Personally, I suspect they're very wrong about the first two points, but that's just my opinion.

Thanks for explaining the other side of it.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lack of FSD in Europe. If they manage to get it approved in 2026 expect that to reverse.

Probably also the no lack of Nazi salutes on TV and his political ‘escapades’.

He appeared at an AfD thing

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#237

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand why this keeps working. The dude doing the hyping is widely hated. 67% of Americans have said they'll never consider buying a Tesla. 56% cite Musk as either the entire reason or part of the reason. [0] Tesla IS Elon Musk. Without him they're nothing, with him they can't access 2/3rds of the market. Why would anyone invest in that? [0] https://www.yahoo.com/news/two-thirds-of-americans-now-say-t...

TSLA investors: * don't believe the 67% will follow through with that after experiencing FSD * don't need 67% of Americans to purchase the car. Robotaxi use is plenty. * look beyond the American market and its pathetic 5% EV share.

FSD is going to wipe everything off.

I’ve tried v13 few weeks ago, knowing it works so well. Still got shocked how good it is.

They’ll have to drop the price of it tho, but even then 10M cars * $100 per month is $12b of revenue per year.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#238

Electrek’s ‘reporting’ has proven so one-sided that I take all their stories with a bucket of salt. Even if the truck has been a flop I doubt their whole battery program has been. Perhaps they’re rejigging suppliers and pausing whilst they get ready to ramp up cyber cab production lines

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Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#239

For years, we’ve been told that the 4680 cell was the “holy grail” that would allow Tesla to produce a $25,000 electric car. For years, we've been told a lot of things that have never come to fruition. Just 6 months ago, we were told that Robotaxi would be available to half the US population by the end of the year. https://electrek.co/2025/07/23/elon-musk-with-straight-face-...

It's incredible there is something wrong with a group of people completely unable to see when someone is lying to them. And no matter how many times they are lied to, as long as they are rich enough they believe them. I don't know what to think anymore about this. He has continuously conned his way along and does it just long enough to jump to the next con. Tesla is crashing and somehow people though giving him a hug…

I think you think about it in the wrong way. The obvious con is what hypes the fan base. They think they are in on it and that they will fool the "NPCs" or what ever they call normal people.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#240
post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a myth that China heavily subsidises its EV industry. See e.g. this Bloomberg article titled "China Can't Cut EV Subsidies It Isn't Paying": https://archive.ph/5olix

Lately I've realized that "Chinese subsidies" are psychologically useful for people outside China to believe in, as cope to handwave away their own failing industries. Solar panels aren't really subsidized in China either.

Currently Chinese are competitive because because developers work on burnout level intensity and workers have no life but factory around the clock.

Of course, the salaries and working conditions are going up in China while west is eroding worker rights as fast as we can. One the factories will come back here simply because we'll end up cheaper. Don't buy solar made by Xinjiang forced labor, by solar panels made by illegal immigrant prison labor!

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