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Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

electrek.co

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Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#171

Post by Yoric »

majormajor wrote: post #78
nobleach wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And of those things we've been told, a high percentage of them have had to do with battery technology. Science is full of discoveries, science at scale doesn't always work out like we've hoped.

Everything I remember about the Jobs RDF was entirely about things like MacWorld Expo presentations. Selling lesser-performing products for more by claiming they did more with things like Photoshop bakeoffs, or with (claimed) style over substance. (I was a big long-term Mac user so I felt like Mac OS was enough of an advantage over Windows for a long time that it wasn't just style over substance.) Musk just took it w…

Took me some time to remember that RDF meant Reality Distortion Field.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#172

Post by BoiledCabbage »

jqpabc123 wrote: post #5

For years, we’ve been told that the 4680 cell was the “holy grail” that would allow Tesla to produce a $25,000 electric car. For years, we've been told a lot of things that have never come to fruition. Just 6 months ago, we were told that Robotaxi would be available to half the US population by the end of the year. https://electrek.co/2025/07/23/elon-musk-with-straight-face-...

It's incredible there is something wrong with a group of people completely unable to see when someone is lying to them. And no matter how many times they are lied to, as long as they are rich enough they believe them.

I don't know what to think anymore about this. He has continuously conned his way along and does it just long enough to jump to the next con.

Tesla is crashing and somehow people though giving him a huge pay package made sense. Cyber truck is flopping but now he's again living off government graft by having another company buy up the dead weight supply. Tesla is only around because of govt subsidy and now that that's dead he's turned to another govt spigot. While supposedly being opposed politically to what he's doing.

And time and time again people still make up excuses because they can't believe they were conned.

Probably the biggest sign AI is going to flop is him starting talking about it being right around the corner.

Little technical skills, no forecasting ability, we saw how much his "efficiency management" philosophy flopped when done in public via DOGE (vs behind the scenes in a private company) and yet people keep falling for it. As long as he can keep spitting out BS, people keep falling for it.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#174

Post by Tiktaalik »

zdragnar wrote: post #134
fsh wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla is probably the only EV maker with declining sales for the last two years. Quite a feat in a booming market, and remarkable considering that the stock already has a few orders of magnitude of growth priced in.

This is an interesting take, considering several EVs from traditional manufacturers have been canned entirely.

The EV market is booming outside of NA. EV growth share in Europe is remarkable and Tesla is flatlining there while everyone else advances.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#175

Post by alfiedotwtf »

Yoric wrote: post #163
toss1 wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>>he's not the richest man on earth for nothing. He engineers perceptions, finance, and govt funds, not technology. Every report and available evidence shows he is barely technologically astute, nevermind genius; the accomplishments of his teams are despite him not because of him. Which is why a better description would be: The Greediest Man On Earth.

> Every report and available evidence shows he is barely technologically astute, nevermind genius; the accomplishments of his teams are despite him not because of him. In particular, nothing that comes out of his mouth regarding AI makes any sense. And still, people listen to him as if he was an expert. Go figure.

I just don’t get it? Do people hang off his every word just because he’s rich? What are they expecting for this worship… it’s not like he’s going to start throwing $100 bills to people because they agree with him on Twitter

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#176

Post by hvb2 »

Retric wrote: post #45
andsoitis wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I really don't understand those investors and how they price a struggling company so highly. Struggling, not so much: '24/'25 revenue of just under $100B, with Q3'25 record profitability and deliveries yielding $1.5B net income. Strong liquidity and a current ratio of about 2, boosting short-term financial stability. Solid cash reserves and relatively low debt ratio. High stock price: far exceeds that of traditiona…

Past performance is meaningless here. They lost the massive US subsidy making EV’s appealing and are getting outcomes in China. Model E and Cybertruck have anemic and shrinking sales numbers etc.

Model E?

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#177

Post by _t9ow »

abirch wrote: post #73
mxschumacher wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

there was a rush to buy electric cars in the US for as long as the $7500 incentive was in place, so the Q3 2025 number if inflated; it's a pull forward effect. Sales have been flat for 3 years and the delivery numbers in Europe are catastrophic on a fully diluted basis, the market cap is above $1.6tn, so at a PE of 20, they'd have to generate something like $80bn in profit per year - hard to do in an industry that is…

Not to mention China heavily subsidizing BYD.

It's a myth that China heavily subsidises its EV industry. See e.g. this Bloomberg article titled "China Can't Cut EV Subsidies It Isn't Paying": https://archive.ph/5olix

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#178

Post by mr_mitm »

1121redblackgo wrote: post #140
mr_mitm wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is an entire Wikipedia article about Musk's (mostly) failed predictions: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autono...

At what point is it fair to call the list something other than ‘predictions’

According to the article, a court would call this "corporate puffery", but to me it's nothing but lies and grifting.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#179

Post by y0eswddl »

nemomarx wrote: post #2

Tesla stock dipped a little today it seems but it's still up 8 percent over the month. I really don't understand those investors and how they price a struggling company so highly.

have because despite the story that most people try to tell about the market and the economy... in the late- and post-ZIRP era, it's been mostly based on Hype, Feelings, and Vibes.

It's why the entire S&P 500 teeters on the back of 7 companies without any presently viable paths to profitability that would justify the current valuations.

It's why repeatedly lying for a decade+ made Elon so rich even though the business output and fundamentals never really matched the valuation.

Still doesn't - this valuation is mostly vestigial beliefs that AI would eliminate an entire workforce ("history often rhymes") of drivers and replace car ownership with subscription.

The majority of the performance in the market has little to do with actual material value being produced and everything to do with how much rent finance bros think they can extract from the stock.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#180

Post by narrator »

jack_riminton wrote: post #8

Electrek’s ‘reporting’ has proven so one-sided that I take all their stories with a bucket of salt. Even if the truck has been a flop I doubt their whole battery program has been. Perhaps they’re rejigging suppliers and pausing whilst they get ready to ramp up cyber cab production lines

The haters on here are ridiculous. If everyone who ever had a product that failed in the market was called a fraud on HN then probably almost everyone would be. SpaceX failed on their first three launches. All the haters here would have voted to shut it all down. Glad Elon's able to recover from business failures without going to the HN comments section to find out what he should do next.
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