Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99% • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#121

Post by epistasis » Mon, Dec 29, 2025, 6:57 PM UTC

fsh wrote: post #37

andsoitis wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I really don't understand those investors and how they price a struggling company so highly. Struggling, not so much: '24/'25 revenue of just under $100B, with Q3'25 record profitability and deliveries yielding $1.5B net income. Strong liquidity and a current ratio of about 2, boosting short-term financial stability. Solid cash reserves and relatively low debt ratio. High stock price: far exceeds that of traditiona…

Tesla is probably the only EV maker with declining sales for the last two years. Quite a feat in a booming market, and remarkable considering that the stock already has a few orders of magnitude of growth priced in.

Ah, but you missed the pivot, Tesla is no longer an EV maker, it's now a robotics company.

This fully explains the market valuation, of course! Never mind a swarm of retail investors driven by a news media that covered Musk as if he were Tony Stark for years, this market cap is fully based on solid fundamental analysis of expected future revenue.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#122

Post by awesome_dude » Mon, Dec 29, 2025, 6:57 PM UTC

mxschumacher wrote: post #56

jedberg wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For comparison, GM brought in $1.3B on $48B.

and Tesla is valued at over 21x more than GM

Sorry, I lost the thread - GM looks twice as profitable, the same profit on half the revenue

How does that justify Tesla's valuation?

Is it based on the idea that the margin can be improved?

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#123

Post by nutjob2 » Mon, Dec 29, 2025, 6:57 PM UTC

maxdo wrote: post #91

If you see electrek news , these are just plain sour haters. Cyberteack is a flop. This battery has a parallel track and is used elsewhere so conclusions are just basesless .

Where else are the batteries used?

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#124

Post by jacquesm » Mon, Dec 29, 2025, 6:57 PM UTC

RobotToaster wrote: post #109

PunchyHamster wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla fans have no ability to learn from past lies.

Fool me once, shame on you, fool me 65535 times...

Let's hope they used a short unsigned int, just one more time and they can start all over again!

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#125

Post by TheAlchemist » Mon, Dec 29, 2025, 6:58 PM UTC

SonOfKyuss wrote: post #75

malfist wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And what evidence do you base those assumptions on? According to the journalists at electrek despite Tesla having capacity to manufacture 250k cybertrucks per year, they're only selling 20-25k per year

I actually get a kick out of Eletrek’s roasting of Elon and Tesla, but if you read a few of their articles, it’s clear they don’t like him. Lots of opinions and editorializing in the articles. I have no problem with that, you just have to realize where they are coming from and base your interpretation accordingly

The reason for that is actually very funny. Electrek guy (Fred) was one of the main propagandist for Tesla's cult - he 'earned' 2 free Tesla Roadsters for his convincing enough people to buy a Tesla.

It was only once he realized that he has been duped and those will never materialize that the coverage turned negative.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#126

Post by nutjob2 » Mon, Dec 29, 2025, 6:59 PM UTC

lysace wrote: post #97

yalogin wrote: post #77

So this battery pipeline can only be used for the cybertruck? Cannot be adapted to be used with the other vehicles? That seems odd.

[flagged]

Maybe your brain could tell us where the batteries are being used and who is producing them.

You know, evidence, instead of just something that resides in your brain.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#127

Post by kelseyfrog » Mon, Dec 29, 2025, 6:59 PM UTC

netdur wrote: post #33

i don't understand americans, two years ago i wanted a tesla, now i want a byd, you've let down the only american company competing against the chinese, all because of trump and politics

We voted with our wallets. Between communism and Nazis, communism was the lesser evil. This is Musk's WW3.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#128

Post by submeta » Mon, Dec 29, 2025, 6:59 PM UTC

Musk increasingly feels like a charlatan selling snake oil. He is great at hype and storytelling, not so great at execution. Big promises, missed timelines, excuses reframed as genius.

He has been promising fully autonomous Teslas since at least 2015 and “level 5” self-driving within a couple of years, yet cars still require human oversight and true autonomy remains elusive.

He said Tesla robotaxis would be on the road by 2020 and then “next year” repeatedly, which never happened.

He promised an affordable $35,000 Model 3 and a cheap family EV, but those never materialized as advertised.

He unveiled the Cybertruck with specific features and price points that did not pan out, and several promised add-ons never appeared.

He set repeated production deadlines for the Tesla Roadster that kept slipping for years.

And his Mars colonization timelines are still nowhere near realistic.

The same cycle keeps repeating, with fans focusing on a few wins while ignoring a long list of missed commitments. At some point it stops being bold vision and starts looking like a confidence game.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#129

Post by SoftTalker » Mon, Dec 29, 2025, 6:59 PM UTC

magic_man wrote: post #13

nemomarx wrote: post #2

Tesla stock dipped a little today it seems but it's still up 8 percent over the month. I really don't understand those investors and how they price a struggling company so highly.

I don't think Tesla stock has traded on fundamentals for a while.

Or ever.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#130

Post by stingraycharles » Mon, Dec 29, 2025, 7:00 PM UTC

majormajor wrote: post #87

andsoitis wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It has delivered a better ROI in the same way a ponzi scheme can deliver higher ROI. It sounds like you're arguing that high valuation compared to fundamentals means buyers expect gains from future buyers paying more sounds like a Ponzi, but it isn't, it is speculation. The comparison doesn't make sense. Some surface features of speculative markets can look Ponzi-like, but the underlying mechanics are very differen…

> In a Ponzi-scheme, there is no real product (or it is irrelevant) This part is the smell. "It's not a car company, it's a AI/Robot/whatever company." The valuation is supposedly justified by a future product that perpetually fails to materialize. It's obviously not a classical Ponzi scheme in the mechanical sense where payouts are controlled by a central party. It has major Ponzi vibes though, with new money contin…

Yeah, the target keeps moving. Earlier it was “it’s not a car company, it’s a battery company”. Then it was all about FSD and robotaxis. Now that that is not working out, it’s going to be a robot company.

The actual underlying product, the cars, don’t match the crazy valuation.