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Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

electrek.co

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Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#92
post #58

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The technology is fine, it's the leadership. Plenty of other countries are rolling out EVs fine, we (the US) just can't seem to build out the charging infrastructure or standardize on a charging port.

(And don't forget that Laserdisk was quite successful for what it tried to do, and that when you buy physical videos today, they're in optical disk format.)

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#93

For years, we’ve been told that the 4680 cell was the “holy grail” that would allow Tesla to produce a $25,000 electric car. For years, we've been told a lot of things that have never come to fruition. Just 6 months ago, we were told that Robotaxi would be available to half the US population by the end of the year. https://electrek.co/2025/07/23/elon-musk-with-straight-face-...

Tesla fans have no ability to learn from past lies.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#94
post #58

[flagged]

I don't want to pile on you as I see you've already taken a hit - so I'll leave the voting out of this. But consider how many people you knew in the 80s/90s with a Laser Disc player. It was very niche. You likely had one techy nerd friend, or you had a friend that had a dad that was always buying "the next big thing". I think I knew ONE GUY that bought a laser disc player. Contrast that with just Tesla (not even EVs). You likely know 4 or 5 friends or family that own one. The model Y was the best selling vehicle last year. Whether that trend lasts into the 2050s, none of us can know. But calling it a failure? I just don't see it.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#95
post #20

Electrek’s ‘reporting’ has proven so one-sided that I take all their stories with a bucket of salt. Even if the truck has been a flop I doubt their whole battery program has been. Perhaps they’re rejigging suppliers and pausing whilst they get ready to ramp up cyber cab production lines

And what evidence do you base those assumptions on? According to the journalists at electrek despite Tesla having capacity to manufacture 250k cybertrucks per year, they're only selling 20-25k per year

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Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I really don't understand those investors and how they price a struggling company so highly. Struggling, not so much: '24/'25 revenue of just under $100B, with Q3'25 record profitability and deliveries yielding $1.5B net income. Strong liquidity and a current ratio of about 2, boosting short-term financial stability. Solid cash reserves and relatively low debt ratio. High stock price: far exceeds that of traditiona…

1.5B net on $100B revenue is not great. 1.5%? If that's not struggling, it's uncomfortably close.

Look at the free cash flow, and the situation looks maybe even worse. They're basically not worth much, if anything, from a free cash flow perspective.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#98
post #14

The future of electrification is at risk because the market chose to bet on TSLA. Many companies backpedaled on EV and the POTUS is making a major push towards oil (including invading Venezuela). The future looks grim.

The future looks Chinese.

And electric

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#99
post #91

If you see electrek news , these are just plain sour haters. Cyberteack is a flop. This battery has a parallel track and is used elsewhere so conclusions are just basesless .

Isn’t this design DOA though, with LFP and upcoming solid state batteries?

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#100
post #2

Tesla stock dipped a little today it seems but it's still up 8 percent over the month. I really don't understand those investors and how they price a struggling company so highly.

The promise of self driving is what's driving Tesla stock. Two things can happen: The dream is a bust, and Tesla is worthless. Or the dream pans out, and almost all other car companies are worth a lot less. Unless you absolutely want to believe that either self driving is impossible, or Tesla is uniquely unable to achieve it, the valuation is not entirely unwarranted. Put shortly, Tesla is not a car company, it's a b…

This is the Pascal's wager of stock arguments.

It omits a lot of other scenarios that increase the actual risk of betting on Tesla...

Self-driving becomes a commodity and so there's no unique Tesla win.

Self-driving becomes something only Tesla controls but (in the fleet/rental model) doesn't bring back returns to justify this investment because of extremely high capital, maintenance, regulatory, or other costs.

Self-driving becomes something only Tesla controls but (in the personal-owner model) doesn't bring back returns to justify this investment because it doesn't motivate the entire world to splash out on new vehicles overnight and also doesn't override other existing biases/preferences.

Self-driving is won by someone else (maybe someone with less religious views about Lidar, say) and Tesla no longer can even sell that promise.

Those are just the ones that occur to me in a few minutes!

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