Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

electrek.co

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

81–90 of 836 posts

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#81

Post by mxschumacher »

abirch wrote: post #73
mxschumacher wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

there was a rush to buy electric cars in the US for as long as the $7500 incentive was in place, so the Q3 2025 number if inflated; it's a pull forward effect. Sales have been flat for 3 years and the delivery numbers in Europe are catastrophic on a fully diluted basis, the market cap is above $1.6tn, so at a PE of 20, they'd have to generate something like $80bn in profit per year - hard to do in an industry that is…

Not to mention China heavily subsidizing BYD.

there are around 140 EV companies in china competing very aggressively, they have excess capacity and are flooding the world market with cheap EVs, tough for Tesla to have a healthy margin in that environment

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#83

Post by andsoitis »

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #39
andsoitis wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I really don't understand those investors and how they price a struggling company so highly. Struggling, not so much: '24/'25 revenue of just under $100B, with Q3'25 record profitability and deliveries yielding $1.5B net income. Strong liquidity and a current ratio of about 2, boosting short-term financial stability. Solid cash reserves and relatively low debt ratio. High stock price: far exceeds that of traditiona…

1.5B net on $100B revenue is not great. 1.5%? If that's not struggling, it's uncomfortably close.

> 1.5B net on $100B revenue is not great. 1.5%? If that's not struggling, it's uncomfortably close.

You're misreading. $100B annual revenue. 1.5B quarterly new income.

Q3 2025 was record revenue of $27B (up 12% YoY). Operating margin was 5.8% (down from 10.8 Q3 2024).

Why the lower profitability? Higher expenses for AI and R&D costs, lower EV prices (very strong competition), etc.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#84

Post by bdcravens »

netdur wrote: post #33

i don't understand americans, two years ago i wanted a tesla, now i want a byd, you've let down the only american company competing against the chinese, all because of trump and politics

Elon's personality has been known before he ever came out in support of Trump. Think back to when he called someone trying to rescue kids a "pedo" because they ignored his idea of building a submarine. Moreover, his inability to deliver on promises has been a well-known fact for years.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#85

Post by alright2565 »

ajross wrote: post #15
doctorpangloss wrote: post #3

what would it look like to directly sell EV batteries to consumers? what would have to happen? this sort of happened. the people who sold these battery materials for the 4680 thought they were making a B2B sale, and they still wound up making a B2C sale - that ended in disaster - in disguise.

> what would it look like to directly sell EV batteries to consumers? what would have to happen? It looks like this: https://www.amazon.com/JESSY-3-7-Volt-Rechargeable-Battery/d... These cells aren't special, they're all off the shelf designs. The 4680 got some marketing spin, but really it was just a bigger form factor with a tweaked chemistry that apparently just didn't work out. And of course that means you can me…

Note that you should never buy raw cells from Amazon. They are always fake or under-spec. At the very least, this seller claims "Multiple Protections" when this is a fully unprotected cell.

Distributors usually won't sell to regular consumers, but there are specialized retailers who base their reputation on selling quality goods, usually to the RC, flashlight, and vape market.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#87

Post by majormajor »

andsoitis wrote: post #62
stingraycharles wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It has delivered a better ROI in the same way a ponzi scheme can deliver higher ROI.

> It has delivered a better ROI in the same way a ponzi scheme can deliver higher ROI. It sounds like you're arguing that high valuation compared to fundamentals means buyers expect gains from future buyers paying more sounds like a Ponzi, but it isn't, it is speculation. The comparison doesn't make sense. Some surface features of speculative markets can look Ponzi-like, but the underlying mechanics are very differen…

> In a Ponzi-scheme, there is no real product (or it is irrelevant)

This part is the smell.

"It's not a car company, it's a AI/Robot/whatever company." The valuation is supposedly justified by a future product that perpetually fails to materialize.

It's obviously not a classical Ponzi scheme in the mechanical sense where payouts are controlled by a central party. It has major Ponzi vibes though, with new money continuing to reward old money even though the fundamentals and products haven't done anything to justify that continued influx - only the hype has.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#88

Post by fencepost »

Doing a quick bit of searching based on the 4680 makes me think that there has been or will be a change from NMC811 to LFP chemistry in the 4680, including one article talking about changing to US and European-based in-house manufacturing and reducing dependence on China.

I'm no fan of Tesla, but this looks like the collapse of the contract with the supplier for the battery chemistry they've moved away from, aka "no [more] big deal."

2023 article confirming NMC chemistry: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1149/1945-7111/ad14d0

5/2025 article discussing change to LFP: https://roboticsbiz.com/teslas-4680-lfp-battery-explained-ch...

3/2025 article comparing BYD's LFP and Tesla's NMC/NCM: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S266638642...

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#89

Post by knuppar »

andsoitis wrote: post #62
stingraycharles wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It has delivered a better ROI in the same way a ponzi scheme can deliver higher ROI.

> It has delivered a better ROI in the same way a ponzi scheme can deliver higher ROI. It sounds like you're arguing that high valuation compared to fundamentals means buyers expect gains from future buyers paying more sounds like a Ponzi, but it isn't, it is speculation. The comparison doesn't make sense. Some surface features of speculative markets can look Ponzi-like, but the underlying mechanics are very differen…

> collapse suddenly

If BYD was in the US I think we could check this box reeeeaaally quickly. It would make Tesla irrelevant.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#90

Post by mapontosevenths »

paxys wrote: post #28
nemomarx wrote: post #2

Tesla stock dipped a little today it seems but it's still up 8 percent over the month. I really don't understand those investors and how they price a struggling company so highly.

There's nothing to understand really. Tesla is a meme stock, and will keep rising as long as Elon and others keep hyping it up.

I don't understand why this keeps working. The dude doing the hyping is widely hated.

67% of Americans have said they'll never consider buying a Tesla. 56% cite Musk as either the entire reason or part of the reason. [0]

Tesla IS Elon Musk. Without him they're nothing, with him they can't access 2/3rds of the market. Why would anyone invest in that?

[0] https://www.yahoo.com/news/two-thirds-of-americans-now-say-t...

Post reply on HN