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Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

electrek.co

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Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#61

Post by mxschumacher »

malfist wrote: post #20
jack_riminton wrote: post #8

Electrek’s ‘reporting’ has proven so one-sided that I take all their stories with a bucket of salt. Even if the truck has been a flop I doubt their whole battery program has been. Perhaps they’re rejigging suppliers and pausing whilst they get ready to ramp up cyber cab production lines

And what evidence do you base those assumptions on? According to the journalists at electrek despite Tesla having capacity to manufacture 250k cybertrucks per year, they're only selling 20-25k per year

and SpaceX has been a major buyer of Cybertrucks

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#62

Post by andsoitis »

stingraycharles wrote: post #27
andsoitis wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I really don't understand those investors and how they price a struggling company so highly. Struggling, not so much: '24/'25 revenue of just under $100B, with Q3'25 record profitability and deliveries yielding $1.5B net income. Strong liquidity and a current ratio of about 2, boosting short-term financial stability. Solid cash reserves and relatively low debt ratio. High stock price: far exceeds that of traditiona…

It has delivered a better ROI in the same way a ponzi scheme can deliver higher ROI.

> It has delivered a better ROI in the same way a ponzi scheme can deliver higher ROI.

It sounds like you're arguing that high valuation compared to fundamentals means buyers expect gains from future buyers paying more sounds like a Ponzi, but it isn't, it is speculation.

The comparison doesn't make sense. Some surface features of speculative markets can look Ponzi-like, but the underlying mechanics are very different.

A Ponzi-scheme returns to earlier participants directly from money contributed by later participants, with no real underlying business generating value. In a Ponzi-scheme, there is no real product (or it is irrelevant), the operator controls payouts, and investors are promised steady or guaranteed returns. None of that applies to Tesla stock.

Ponzi-schemes hide losses, smooth returns, collapse suddenly. Tesla stock is volatile, has had large drawdowns, and public reflects bad news, margin compression, demand shifts. Volatility is a sign of a market, not a Ponzi.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#64

Post by bdcravens »

jqpabc123 wrote: post #5

For years, we’ve been told that the 4680 cell was the “holy grail” that would allow Tesla to produce a $25,000 electric car. For years, we've been told a lot of things that have never come to fruition. Just 6 months ago, we were told that Robotaxi would be available to half the US population by the end of the year. https://electrek.co/2025/07/23/elon-musk-with-straight-face-...

The full Robotaxi rollout is going to happen as soon as they finish fulfilling the Roadster preorders.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#65

Post by vileain »

jqpabc123 wrote: post #5

For years, we’ve been told that the 4680 cell was the “holy grail” that would allow Tesla to produce a $25,000 electric car. For years, we've been told a lot of things that have never come to fruition. Just 6 months ago, we were told that Robotaxi would be available to half the US population by the end of the year. https://electrek.co/2025/07/23/elon-musk-with-straight-face-...

[flagged]

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#67

Post by kilna »

himinlomax wrote: post #31
nemomarx wrote: post #2

Tesla stock dipped a little today it seems but it's still up 8 percent over the month. I really don't understand those investors and how they price a struggling company so highly.

The promise of self driving is what's driving Tesla stock. Two things can happen: The dream is a bust, and Tesla is worthless. Or the dream pans out, and almost all other car companies are worth a lot less. Unless you absolutely want to believe that either self driving is impossible, or Tesla is uniquely unable to achieve it, the valuation is not entirely unwarranted. Put shortly, Tesla is not a car company, it's a b…

Framing it as unwarranted to not think "Tesla is uniquely unable to achieve it"...? Seriously?

The real question is if Tesla is uniquely ABLE to achieve it, above others in the market... including new startups or tech/auto-maker partnerships which may yet form.

Tesla has some supply chain innovation, but none of what they do can't be replicated... and Musk's slavish commitment to video as opposed to LIDAR is hobbling them.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#68

Post by hiddencost »

himinlomax wrote: post #31
nemomarx wrote: post #2

Tesla stock dipped a little today it seems but it's still up 8 percent over the month. I really don't understand those investors and how they price a struggling company so highly.

The promise of self driving is what's driving Tesla stock. Two things can happen: The dream is a bust, and Tesla is worthless. Or the dream pans out, and almost all other car companies are worth a lot less. Unless you absolutely want to believe that either self driving is impossible, or Tesla is uniquely unable to achieve it, the valuation is not entirely unwarranted. Put shortly, Tesla is not a car company, it's a b…

Waymo is 5 years ahead of Tesla, but Tesla has 50% of Google's market cap, with 10x the P/E.

So something isn't being priced correctly.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#69

Post by Analemma_ »

jqpabc123 wrote: post #5

For years, we’ve been told that the 4680 cell was the “holy grail” that would allow Tesla to produce a $25,000 electric car. For years, we've been told a lot of things that have never come to fruition. Just 6 months ago, we were told that Robotaxi would be available to half the US population by the end of the year. https://electrek.co/2025/07/23/elon-musk-with-straight-face-...

"The car is driving itself. The human is only there for legal reasons." (Tesla, 2016)

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#70

Post by nobleach »

jqpabc123 wrote: post #5

For years, we’ve been told that the 4680 cell was the “holy grail” that would allow Tesla to produce a $25,000 electric car. For years, we've been told a lot of things that have never come to fruition. Just 6 months ago, we were told that Robotaxi would be available to half the US population by the end of the year. https://electrek.co/2025/07/23/elon-musk-with-straight-face-...

And of those things we've been told, a high percentage of them have had to do with battery technology. Science is full of discoveries, science at scale doesn't always work out like we've hoped.
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