Live data from Hacker News

As AI gobbles up chips, prices for devices may rise

npr.org

271–280 of 536 posts

Re: As AI gobbles up chips, prices for devices may rise

#271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's somewhat alarming to see that companies (owned by a very small slice of society) ... can easily price the rest of humanity out of computing goods. If AI lives up to the hype, it's a portent of how things will feel to the common man. Not only will unemployment be a problem, but prices of any resources desired by the AI companies or their founders will rise to unaffordability.

I think living up to the hype needs to be defined. A lot of AI 'influencers' love wild speculation, but lets ignore the most fantastical claims of techno-singularity, and let's focus on what I would consider a very optimistic scenario for AI companies - that AI capable of replacing knowledge workers can be developed using the current batch of hardware, in the span of a year or two. Even in this scenario, the capital…

> A lot of AI 'influencers' love wild speculation

You mean like Sam Altman, who repeatedly claimed AI will cure all cancers and diseases, solve the housing crisis, poverty, and democracy? I was going to add erectile disfunction as a joke, but then realised he probably believes that too.

https://youtu.be/l0K4XPu3Qhg?t=60

It’s hard to point fingers at “AI influencers”, as if they’re a fringe group, when the guy who’s the face of the whole AI movement is the one making the wild claims.

Re: As AI gobbles up chips, prices for devices may rise

#272

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well the industries the most impacted by it are homelabbing/datacenters imo. Like in current circumstances, its hard to get a homelab/datacenter so its better to postpone these plans for sometime I agree with your statement overall but I feel like till the years that these ram shortages occur, there is a freeze of all companies providing vps's etc. ie. no new player can enter so I am a bit worried about those raising…

Bleh. I was already sad but I hadn't really thought about that specific impact, I can imagine smaller (read: small to big) VPS providers will be forced to raise prices while meta providers (read: AWS) can probably stomach the cost and eat even more of the market.

Exactly. I was thinking of building my own VPS provider on the pain points of development I felt and my father works in broadband business and has his own office and I was thinking of setting up a very small thing there almost the same hardware-alike of homelabbing

But the ram prices themselves are the reason I am forced to not enter this industry for the time being. I have decided right now to save my money for the time / focus on the job/college aspect of things to earn more so that when the timing is right, I would be able to invest my own money into it.

But basically Ram prices themselves are the thing which force us out of this market for the most part. I researched a lot about datacenters recently/ the rabbit hole and as previous hardware gets replaced/new hardware gets added/datacenters get expanded (whether they are a large company or small), I would expect an increase in prices mostly

This year, companies actually still took the cost but didn't want the market to panic so some black friday deals were good but I am not so sure about the next year or the next next year.

This will be a problem in my opinion for the next 1-3 or 4 years in my estimate

Also AWS is really on the more expensive side of things in the datacenters and they are immensely profitable so they can foot the bill while other datacenters (small or semi large) cant

So we will probably see a shift of companies towards using AWS and big cloud providers(GCP,AWS,azure) a bit more when we take all things into account which saddens me even more because I appreciate open web and this might take a hit.

We already see resentment towards these tri-fecta but we will see even more resentment as more and more people realize their roles / the impacts they cause and just overall, its my intuition that average person mostly hate big tech.

It's going to be a weird year in my opinion for this type of business and what it means for the average person.

Honestly for the time being, I genuinely recommend hetzner,upcloud,(netcup/ovh) and some others that I know from my time researching. I think that they are cheaper than aws usually while still being large enough that you don't worry about things too much and there is always lowendtalk if one's interested. Hope it helps but trust me, there is still hope as I talked to these hosting providers on forums like lowendtalk and It might help to support those people too since long term, an open web is the ideal.

Here is my list right now: hetzner's good if you want support + basic systems like simple compute etc. and dont want too much excess stuff

OVH's good: if you want other things than just compute and want more but their support is something which is of a mixed bag

Upcloud's good: if you want both of these things but they are just a bit more expensive if one wants to get large VPS's than the other options.

Netcup's good: Their payment processing was really painful that I had to go through but I think that one can find use case for them (I myself use netcup but although that's because they had a really steal deal once but I am not sure if I would recommend it if there are no deals)

There are some other services like exe.dev that I really enjoy as well and these services actually inspire me to learn more about these things and there are some very lovely people working in these companies.

There is still hope though. So never forget that. Its just a matter of time in my opinion that things get back normal hopefully so I think I am willing to wait till then since that's all we can do basically but overall, yea its a bit sad when I think about it too :<

Re: As AI gobbles up chips, prices for devices may rise

#273
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Run a lightweight Linux distro on older hardware maybe?

Exclusively using a ever dwindling stock of old hardware is not really a practical solution to preserving hardware rights in the long term

The future is ragged shoeless and grimy humans fighting over the last few 1990's pocket calculators.

Re: As AI gobbles up chips, prices for devices may rise

#274
post #270

It's somewhat alarming to see that companies (owned by a very small slice of society) producing these AI thingies (whose current economic is questionable value and actual future potential is up to hot debate), can easily price the rest of humanity out of computing goods.

In the end, with the current market prices, chips factories and data centers are being built all over with the assumption of exponential demand growth. When the excitement and demand for AI cools, we will enjoy the additional capacity and better prices. Also see: fiber bandwidth post 2000. Capital poured in, overbuilding happened, prices collapsed after the crash.

Has work begun on increasing RAM production capacity? My understanding is that these companies are specifically _not_ increasing capacity yet while they wait to see if the bubble bursts or not.

Re: As AI gobbles up chips, prices for devices may rise

#275

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Supply should increase as a response to higher prices, this bringing prices down.

That's economical theory, but the real world is often non-linear. Crucial is dead. There's a finite amount of rare earth. Wars and floods can bankrupt industries, supply chains are tight.

> Crucial is dead.

Micron stopped selling to consumers to focus on the high margin enteprise market. Might change in the future.

Re: As AI gobbles up chips, prices for devices may rise

#276

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I really agree with your statement and people forget, but the reason third world countries are able to buy devices is because they are cheap, increase the ram price and thus every computing device and I think it will impact everyone of us but disproportionately due to power purchasing capacity and other constraints in an economy I genuinely hope that this ram/chips crisis gets solved ASAP by any party. The implicatio…

Based on the article, demand exceeds supply by 10%. It seems that companies are taking advantage of this gap nothing else. I won't be surprised if the demand is kept this way for a while to extract profits. GPUs saw a similar trend during crypto. Then there were affordable GPUs at one point.

"OMEC" (Organization of Memory Exporting Countries) NAND production quotas lowered by ~10%? https://x.com/jukanlosreve/status/1988505115339436423

  Samsung Electronics has lowered its target for NAND wafer output this year to around 4.72 million sheets, about 7% down from the previous year's 5.07 million. Kioxia also adjusted its output from 4.80 million last year to 4.69 million this year.. SK hynix and Micron are likewise keeping output conservatively constrained in a bid to benefit from higher prices. SK hynix's NAND output fell about 10%, from 2.01 million sheets last year to around 1.80 million this year. Micron's situation is similar: it is maintaining production at Fab 7 in Singapore—its largest NAND production base—in the low 300,000-sheet range, keeping a conservative supply posture.
China's YMTC and CXMT are increasing production capacity, but their product mix depends on non-market inputs, https://thememoryguy.com/some-clarity-on-2025s-ddr4-price-su...

  The Chinese government directed CXMT to convert production from DDR4 to DDR5 as soon as the company was able. The order was said to have been given in the 4th quarter of 2024, and the price transition changed from a decrease to an increase in the middle of March 2025.. A wholesale conversion from DDR4 to DDR5 would probably be very expensive to perform, and would thus be unusual for a company that was focused on profitability. As a government-owned company, CXMT does not need to consistently turn a profit, and this was a factor in the government’s decision to suddenly switch from DDR4 to DDR5.

Re: As AI gobbles up chips, prices for devices may rise

#277

It's somewhat alarming to see that companies (owned by a very small slice of society) producing these AI thingies (whose current economic is questionable value and actual future potential is up to hot debate), can easily price the rest of humanity out of computing goods.

> It's somewhat alarming to see that companies (owned by a very small slice of society) producing these AI thingies (whose current economic is questionable value and actual future potential is up to hot debate) Some might conclude the same for funds (hedge funds/private equity) and housing.

AI consumes about 30% of DRAM wafers. PE owns about .5% of single family homes.

Re: As AI gobbles up chips, prices for devices may rise

#278
post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How many "great products and services" even need a lot of RAM, assuming that we can live without graphics-intensive games?

Some open source projects use Slack to communicate, which is a real ram hog. Github, especially for viewing large PR discussions, takes a huge amount of memory. If someone with a low-memory laptop wants to get into coding, modern software-development-related services are incredible memory hogs.

IRC is far superior than Slack when it comes to RAM usage. Projects should just switch to that.

Re: As AI gobbles up chips, prices for devices may rise

#279

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Supply should increase as a response to higher prices, this bringing prices down.

As far as I can tell, none of the companies producing memory chips are increasing production because they don't know if the current demand is sustainable. Increasing memory production capacity is a multi-year project, but in a few years, the LLM companies creating the current demand might all have run out of money. If demand craters just as supply increases, prices will drastically decrease, which none of these compa…

You are wrong. Memory production is being expanded in 2026 and will expand further in 2027 and 2028 as the memory suppliers catch up on fab shell capacity.

Re: As AI gobbles up chips, prices for devices may rise

#280

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If "performant" devices are not widespread then telemetry will reveal that the app is performing poorly for most users. If a new festure uses more memory and sugnificantly increases the crash rate, it will be disabled. Apps are optimized for the install base, not for the engineer's own hardware.

What is the point of telemetry if your IDE launching in under 10s is considered the pinnacle of optimization? That's like 100B+ instructions on a single core of your average superscalar CPU. I can't wait for maps loading times being measured in percentage of trip time.

If your IDE isn’t launching instantly you have a bad IDE.
Post reply on HN