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Karpathy on Programming: “I've never felt this much behind”

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Re: Karpathy on Programming: “I've never felt this much behind”

#11

For the longest time, the joy of creation in programming came from solving hard problems. The pursuit of a challenge meant something. Now, that pursuit seems to be short-circuited by an animated being racing ahead under a different set of incentives. I see a tsunami at the beach, and I’m not sure whether I can run fast enough.

(Inception scene) here a minute is seven hours

Re: Karpathy on Programming: “I've never felt this much behind”

#12

Man, this is giving me a cognitive dissonance compared to my experiences. Actually, even the post itself reads like a cognitive dissonance with a dash of the usual "if it's not working for you then you are using it wrong" defence.

I feel exactly like Karpathy here. I have some work to do, and I know exactly what I need to do, and I'm able to explain it to AI, and the AI seems to understand me (I'm lately using Opus 4.5). I wrote down a roadmap, it should take me a few weeks of coding. It feels like with a proper workflow with AI agents, this work should be doable in one or two days. Yet, I know by now that it's not going to be nearly that fast. I'll be lucky if I finish 30% faster than if I just code the entire damn thing myself. The thing is, I am a huge AI optimist, I'm not one of the AI skeptics, not even close. Karpathy is not an AI skeptic. We just both feel this sense of possibility, and the fact that we can't make AI help us more is frustrating. That's all. There's no telling anyone else "it's on you if you can't make it work for you". I think Karpathy figured out by now, and at least I did, that the number of AI skeptics by now far outnumbers the number of AI optimists, and it has become something akin to a political conviction. It's quite futile to try and change someone's mind about whether AI is good, bad, overhyped, underused, etc. People picked their side and that's that.

Re: Karpathy on Programming: “I've never felt this much behind”

#13

Man, this is giving me a cognitive dissonance compared to my experiences. Actually, even the post itself reads like a cognitive dissonance with a dash of the usual "if it's not working for you then you are using it wrong" defence.

I think of it this way. If you dropped Einstein with a time machine two thousand year ago, people would think he is some crazy guy doing scribbles in the sand. No one would ever know how smart he is. The same is with people and advanced AGI like Gemini 3 Pro or Chatgpt 5.2 Pro. We are just dumber than them.

You think they have “advanced AGI” and are worried about keeping up with the software industry? There would be be nothing to keep up with at that point.

To use an analogy, it would be like spending all your time before a battle making sure your knife is sharp when your opponent has a tank.

Re: Karpathy on Programming: “I've never felt this much behind”

#14
post #4

Being a nondeterministic tool, the output for a given input can vary. Rather than having a solid plan of, "if I provide this input, then that will happen", it's more like, "if I do something like this, I can expect something like that, probably, and if not, then try again until it works, I suppose". What are the productivity gains? Obviously, it must vary. The quality of the tool output varies based on numerous crite…

Non determinism does not imply non correctness. You can have the LLM do 10 different outputs, but maybe all 10 are valid solutions. Some might be more optimal in certain situations, and some might appeal to different people aesthetically.

Re: Karpathy on Programming: “I've never felt this much behind”

#15
post #4

Being a nondeterministic tool, the output for a given input can vary. Rather than having a solid plan of, "if I provide this input, then that will happen", it's more like, "if I do something like this, I can expect something like that, probably, and if not, then try again until it works, I suppose". What are the productivity gains? Obviously, it must vary. The quality of the tool output varies based on numerous crite…

Non determinism of AI feels like a compiler which will on same input code spit out different executable on every run. Fixing bugs will become more like a ritual to satisfy whims of the machine spirit.

But how different? Compilers do, in fact, spit out different binaries with each run. There are timestamps and other subtle details embedded in them (esp compiler version and linking) that make the same source result in a different binary. "That's different"; "that's not the same thing!" I see you thinking. As long as the AI prompt "make me a login screen" results in a login screen appropriate for the rest of the code, and not "rm -rf ~/", does it matter if the indeterminism produces a login page with a Google login page before the email login button or after?

Re: Karpathy on Programming: “I've never felt this much behind”

#16
> There's a new programmable layer of abstraction to master (in addition to the usual layers below) involving agents, subagents, their prompts, contexts, memory, modes, permissions, tools, plugins, skills, hooks, MCP, LSP, slash commands, workflows, IDE integrations, and a need to build an all-encompassing mental model for strengths and pitfalls of fundamentally stochastic, fallible, unintelligible and changing entities suddenly intermingled with what used to be good old fashioned engineering.

Slop-oriented programming

Re: Karpathy on Programming: “I've never felt this much behind”

#17
post #14
post #4

Being a nondeterministic tool, the output for a given input can vary. Rather than having a solid plan of, "if I provide this input, then that will happen", it's more like, "if I do something like this, I can expect something like that, probably, and if not, then try again until it works, I suppose". What are the productivity gains? Obviously, it must vary. The quality of the tool output varies based on numerous crite…

Non determinism does not imply non correctness. You can have the LLM do 10 different outputs, but maybe all 10 are valid solutions. Some might be more optimal in certain situations, and some might appeal to different people aesthetically.

Nondeterminism indeed does not imply non-correctness.

All ten outputs might be valid. All ten will almost certainly be different -- though even that is not guaranteed.

The OP referred to the notion of there being no manual; we have to figure out how to use the tool ourselves.

A traditional programming tool manual would explain that you can provide input X and expect output Y. Do this, and that will happen. It is not so clear-cut with AI tools, because they are -- by default, in popular configurations -- nondeterministic.

Re: Karpathy on Programming: “I've never felt this much behind”

#18
post #17
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Non determinism does not imply non correctness. You can have the LLM do 10 different outputs, but maybe all 10 are valid solutions. Some might be more optimal in certain situations, and some might appeal to different people aesthetically.

Nondeterminism indeed does not imply non-correctness. All ten outputs might be valid. All ten will almost certainly be different -- though even that is not guaranteed. The OP referred to the notion of there being no manual; we have to figure out how to use the tool ourselves. A traditional programming tool manual would explain that you can provide input X and expect output Y. Do this, and that will happen. It is not…

We are one functional output guarantee away from them being optimizing compilers.

Of course, we maybe never get there :)

Re: Karpathy on Programming: “I've never felt this much behind”

#19
post #18
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nondeterminism indeed does not imply non-correctness. All ten outputs might be valid. All ten will almost certainly be different -- though even that is not guaranteed. The OP referred to the notion of there being no manual; we have to figure out how to use the tool ourselves. A traditional programming tool manual would explain that you can provide input X and expect output Y. Do this, and that will happen. It is not…

We are one functional output guarantee away from them being optimizing compilers. Of course, we maybe never get there :)

Why would one opt to use an LLM-based AI tool as a compiler? It seems that would be extraordinarily complex over traditional compilers, but for what benefit?

Re: Karpathy on Programming: “I've never felt this much behind”

#20
post #19
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We are one functional output guarantee away from them being optimizing compilers. Of course, we maybe never get there :)

Why would one opt to use an LLM-based AI tool as a compiler? It seems that would be extraordinarily complex over traditional compilers, but for what benefit?

It would be, in its ideal state a vague problem to concrete and robust implementation compiler.

A star trek replicator for software.

Obviously we are nowhere near that, and we may never arrive. But this is the big bet.

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