Live data from Hacker News

Who Watches the Waymos? I do [video]

youtube.com

81–90 of 123 posts

Re: Who Watches the Waymos? I do [video]

#81
post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Reduction in premiums doesn’t mean reduction in profit.

Aren't insurance profits capped to some percentage of revenue in most jurisdictions by law?

Yes, this is true - but it’s still beneficial enough to have fewer claims. Claims incur cost in many ways and running a business with fewer claims would be more predictable and likely worth the minimal trade off.

Re: Who Watches the Waymos? I do [video]

#83
post #57

Very impressive video! What you can clearly see: If you scale this over the next years, "manual driving is over" :-D This is just the very very early beginning, like the first seconds after big bang, we haven really started this whole thing: If you put just more ressources here, we will have giant parking houses for just self-driving-cars, like "coming home over night and recharge" And this technology will come on a…

>If you are today a big insurance like Munich Re, and you see already today that self-driving produces already much less accidents (90% or so I read days ago?), and the tech is really new & "not 100% reliable" and you believe that this tech will be rolled out - one day you will start lobbying politicans that manual driving needs to be forbidden, except some rare cases. Why would insurance companies lobby for that? 90…

You have a point. At the same time insurance companies are getting out of insurance because they can't afford it. Apparently (I didn't verify this), the cost to repair cars has gone up so much that the economics don't work out. So they're leaving the market. Maybe less crashes would bring them back?

Pick a source: https://www.google.com/search?q=car+insurance+companies+leav...

Re: Who Watches the Waymos? I do [video]

#84
post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which isn’t even really that prohibitive because Chinese vehicles beat Western pricing by five figures. Plus, all the sensor equipment is made in China anyway. There’s almost certainly no way to have it manufactured in the US. On top of that, fleet sales don’t have to deal with the antiquated dealer network laws in the US. And of course American market car manufacturers refuse to produce vehicles that are like this o…

I would pay lots of money for an electric minivan (or van I guess) with removable seats that can fit a 4 ft x 8ft board.

I think the VW ID buzz is probably the closest thing you’ll find in the US.

Ignore the crazy high MSRP, they are selling poorly and you should be able to get one brand new or lightly used one in the 40s.

I think in a short couple of years they could be a steal on the used market.

Re: Who Watches the Waymos? I do [video]

#85
post #57

Very impressive video! What you can clearly see: If you scale this over the next years, "manual driving is over" :-D This is just the very very early beginning, like the first seconds after big bang, we haven really started this whole thing: If you put just more ressources here, we will have giant parking houses for just self-driving-cars, like "coming home over night and recharge" And this technology will come on a…

>If you are today a big insurance like Munich Re, and you see already today that self-driving produces already much less accidents (90% or so I read days ago?), and the tech is really new & "not 100% reliable" and you believe that this tech will be rolled out - one day you will start lobbying politicans that manual driving needs to be forbidden, except some rare cases. Why would insurance companies lobby for that? 90…

They can charge companies more, as they drive more miles, for profit.

Re: Who Watches the Waymos? I do [video]

#86

Surreal. Almost like an optimistic science fiction film. After all, self driving cars have some of the highest positive to negative externality ratio of any modern technology

Can you explain more why you think this? As I see it, cars in general remain very highly negative-externality, and self-driving doesn't change it much.

Regular ICE cars: - air pollution from tire wear and brake dust - air pollution from exhaust - embodied carbon - noise - endangering other road users - traffic congestion - land use (sprawl) - long term health impacts (encouraging sedentary lifestyle)

Switch to all-electric and you lose a bit of noise and all the tailpipe emissions, but gain whatever emissions generated the power (sometimes solar, great, but sometimes lignite, boo), whatever environmental damage resulted from the battery materials, and probably marginal worsening of safety as the same ranger requires a heavier vehicle

Switch to self-driving and you may increase safety (feels like Waymo basically yes, Tesla probably no based on their track record with stat manipulation), but also vastly increase use, worsening congestion and land-use. The others stay the same.

So I don't understand why you're saying the externality ratio is good. From my perspective self-driving cars don't really move the needle.

Re: Who Watches the Waymos? I do [video]

#87
post #58
post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>If you are today a big insurance like Munich Re, and you see already today that self-driving produces already much less accidents (90% or so I read days ago?), and the tech is really new & "not 100% reliable" and you believe that this tech will be rolled out - one day you will start lobbying politicans that manual driving needs to be forbidden, except some rare cases. Why would insurance companies lobby for that? 90…

Reduction in premiums doesn’t mean reduction in profit.

It generally does. If accidents (and payouts) drop by 90%, revenue will ultimately drop and profits will follow. Profit margins may increase, but total profit $$ will likely drop.

Re: Who Watches the Waymos? I do [video]

#88

Very impressive video! What you can clearly see: If you scale this over the next years, "manual driving is over" :-D This is just the very very early beginning, like the first seconds after big bang, we haven really started this whole thing: If you put just more ressources here, we will have giant parking houses for just self-driving-cars, like "coming home over night and recharge" And this technology will come on a…

I'm sure that an insurance company would reject larger premiums and make itself obsolete, assuming that claims you make are true.

Hint: Normies outside the tech world are not hell bent on making themselves unemployed. That phenomenon only exists among software engineers.

Re: Who Watches the Waymos? I do [video]

#89
post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which isn’t even really that prohibitive because Chinese vehicles beat Western pricing by five figures. Plus, all the sensor equipment is made in China anyway. There’s almost certainly no way to have it manufactured in the US. On top of that, fleet sales don’t have to deal with the antiquated dealer network laws in the US. And of course American market car manufacturers refuse to produce vehicles that are like this o…

I would pay lots of money for an electric minivan (or van I guess) with removable seats that can fit a 4 ft x 8ft board.

Not sure if it's sold in the US (assuming you are from there), but the Kia PV5 is probably your best bet. On top of that it's very reasonably priced (in contrast to the ID buzz)

Re: Who Watches the Waymos? I do [video]

#90

Very impressive video! What you can clearly see: If you scale this over the next years, "manual driving is over" :-D This is just the very very early beginning, like the first seconds after big bang, we haven really started this whole thing: If you put just more ressources here, we will have giant parking houses for just self-driving-cars, like "coming home over night and recharge" And this technology will come on a…

> If you are today a big insurance like Munich Re, and you see already today that self-driving produces already much less accidents

Insurance companies don't really care that much if accidents are more or less likely, what they care about is that they can be underwritten effectively.

The most interesting shift here as it pertains to insurance is the fact that losses might be correlated in brand new ways. Today there's no simple way for 100,000 cars to all crash a few minutes apart, worldwide, for the same reason. In the future that may in fact be plausible.

Post reply on HN