171–180 of 645 posts
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Why would the nation that implemented the one-child policy be unable to implement a three child policy?
Reversing demographic momentum isn’t so easy. You have a cascade effect which happens, and high costs of a massive elderly population can’t be borne by a sudden baby boom. Also, through the medical system, etc, you can force people to abort their children, but it’s harder to force them to make children.
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Nowhere close, but pace now seems faster than estimated, i.e. original western estimate is they won't even get EUV prototype up until 2030s. Right now their chips are already "economically" competitive, as in SMIC is starving on 20% margins vs ASML/TSMC/NVIDIA getting gluttonous on 50-70%, at least for enterprise AI. Current scarcity pricing = litho costs borderline rounding error, 1500 Nvidia chip flips for 30000, 6…
How does one even smuggle an ASML machine? I'd assume the machine stops working if the GPS position doesn't compute, at end of life I wouldn't expect ASML to allow these devices nor their components to end up on the second hand market, I'd expect the future transfers to require continued permission of ASML, much like weapons distribution.
The thing that helps prevent smuggling of ASML machines is that a) there are few of them (i.e., people would notice), b) it requires tremendous effort to move them at all, let alone without anyone noticing.
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How will that work, exactly? The chip makers are going to have a list of approved "cloud providers" and they will refuse to sell to anyone else?
Cloud providers will use cheap investment capital to buy chips at increasing prices, while the public will be economically forced to get computational services from these cloud providers. After a few years, most software will work only when connected to cloud infrastructure, either for performance or for "safety" reasons. We're already seeing this with AI.
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ASML develops and ships their machines at the pleasure of Uncle Sam because the USA licensed them the tech and remains a crucial part of the supply chain intentionally. It's not a lever. It's a partnership that is mutually beneficial and neither side can really ruin the other without damaging themselves.
If Uncle Sam pisses off Europa Regina enough, she won't give a damn about licenses.
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Exactly. That's where this is heading, and the West-- as usual-- is pursuing quarterly profits and forgetting to look up.
Is anyone here calling legislators about it to inform them of this? Does anyone here have leverage to affect strategy?
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>for the rest of their lives You overestimate length of the western outrage. Anyway what's to sanction? Almost no country recognizes Taiwan. Diplomatically they changed one job in China to another
A good benchmark would be how long the west remains mad at Russia for invading Ukraine.
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Well, it sounds like an alternative supplier for EUV light sources just became available...
An alternative manufacturer, but not a supplier, no. The US exerts sufficient control over ASML that this will not happen without NATO ending. And the end of NATO (which would be a geopolitical shift more profound than the Fall of the Berlin Wall) and a replacement with some Chinese EUV light source risks the scuttling of all ASML facilities and devices. This is vapor above a coffee cup.
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Which then goes on to be repurposed into weapons of war. Something to think about if considering the purchase of a DJI drone.
the attack drones being used in Ukraine are not DJI anymore. both sides produce extremely cheap, light, disposable drones en masse. also, consider that a $50 smartphone can drive an ICBM.
We thought it was the coolest thing.
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If Uncle Sam pisses off Europa Regina enough, she won't give a damn about licenses.
ASML will instantly stall at that point. The EUV light sources are built in the US under US export control regulation. No EUV light source means no ASML EUV machine. I get that some European chest-beating sounds good because there's not very much tech in Europe, but this is an intentional transnational supply chain. It's no accident that the US chose ASML to develop this tech rather than Canon or Nikon. Close ally de…
It's kind of nasty that a fresh society of capable people has the drive to achieve technological excellence and the incumbents do whatever they can to delay this, even though it's inevitable and there's a lot to gain by empowering them. All in the name of "they are not us". World has gained so much from modern Chinese industrial revolution. Why suddenly everyone got cold feet? Nobody was stopping Germany or Japan on…
I mean, if we’re going to make that comparison, China today looks much more like pre-war Germany and Japan— set on expansion. That’s pretty clearly what the anti-China crowd is worried about. Tibet, Taiwan, Philippine islands, ever expanding naval bases, aggressive displays of power around Australia, prison camps and sterilization programs, and so forth.