Nate Silver has made a career out of predicting things
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Re: Nate Silver has made a career out of predicting things
#2Re: Nate Silver has made a career out of predicting things
#3he's good because he's careful, he does the maths right, and he's doing meta-analysis, so he has more data than the people he's being compared to.
but he's popular mainly because he can communicate so well. doing the maths right is not that hard.
Re: Nate Silver has made a career out of predicting things
#4"Predictions are hard—especially about the future."
And here I was under the impression that ALL predictions are about the future.
Re: Nate Silver has made a career out of predicting things
#5"Predictions are hard—especially about the future." And here I was under the impression that ALL predictions are about the future.
Today's the day you learn about Yogiisms.
Re: Nate Silver has made a career out of predicting things
#6he's good because he's careful, he does the maths right, and he's doing meta-analysis, so he has more data than the people he's being compared to. but he's popular mainly because he can communicate so well. doing the maths right is not that hard.
Doing the math as "right" as he does it is incredibly hard. You can tell because academics do it totally wrong on a regular basis, which leads to many garbage papers, which thankfully sometimes get caught in peer review.
It's true he's a good writer, but the proof is in the pudding. He could be foaming at the mouth, but if he's predicting the outcomes, people will tune in.
Re: Nate Silver has made a career out of predicting things
#7Republicans say Nate Silver is a biased liberal, and reading his blog this election cycle makes it seem that way to me even.
But I would like to know - is there a Republican analog to Nate Silver? Someone who predicts 90% of the races at the end, does the meta-math, and has a computer model?
If there is no Republican analog, can you possibly say Nate Silver is liberal or biased? Does using a computer model and math, and blogging about your results make you a Democrat?
Re: Nate Silver has made a career out of predicting things
#8Republicans say Nate Silver is a biased liberal, and reading his blog this election cycle makes it seem that way to me even. But I would like to know - is there a Republican analog to Nate Silver? Someone who predicts 90% of the races at the end, does the meta-math, and has a computer model? If there is no Republican analog, can you possibly say Nate Silver is liberal or biased? Does using a computer model and math,…
Does following the scientific consensus on issues like anthropogenic global warming, evolution, and sex education make you a Democrat?
Re: Nate Silver has made a career out of predicting things
#9Republicans say Nate Silver is a biased liberal, and reading his blog this election cycle makes it seem that way to me even. But I would like to know - is there a Republican analog to Nate Silver? Someone who predicts 90% of the races at the end, does the meta-math, and has a computer model? If there is no Republican analog, can you possibly say Nate Silver is liberal or biased? Does using a computer model and math,…
It's just a time tested tactic of discrediting a result you dislike in order to prevent your constituents from becoming apathetic and potentially not voting.
If Republicans actually concede that Nate Silver's results are legitimate and unbiased (if they are), than the party would have a much harder time raising money and getting out the vote.
It's better to frame it as a conspiracy so less people take it seriously.
Re: Nate Silver has made a career out of predicting things
#10I'm lost. What are some of his latest predictions that came true?