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Do you really want to be making this much money when you're 50?

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Re: Do you really want to be making this much money when you're 50?

#271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wouldn't argue for ageism, but I would say programming is different from law because technology changes much faster than law. There aren't giant paradigm shifts in law every 10 years. A new technology may in fact be much more productive to work with than an old one. Does someone with COBOL experience have an advantage or a disadvantage in learning Python vs someone who is just starting? Which is larger, the amount…

The volume of small, incremental, changes in law is higher. Let me put it this way. The Dodd-Frank regulations that have come out so far in the last two years is probably the same number of pages, printed 50 lines per page, as the C++ source for Oracle's Hotspot JVM. And it's only 30% done. And there is no ChangeLog. The pace of paradigm shifts is indeed much faster in technology, but I disagree there are major parad…

Your field has a guild and you enjoy the benefits of a professional culture that is centuries in the making. Fully agree with your points regarding the comparative rates of change, and, the sad fact (isn't it?) that the lack of deep exposure to the existing body of work in field due to a lack of effective apprenticeship of the non-existant-guild gives rise to the "major paradigm shift" every 10 years.

Re: Do you really want to be making this much money when you're 50?

#273
post #255

Perhaps I can add my experience in this. I was very good at programming in college. I was one of those guys that left the labs under the hatefull gaze of the entire lab section having finished his assignment early. And boy I loved it too. I was so happy having finished a large programming project or a large engineering design assignment. After getting an interesting assignment I would literally skip on the way back h…

Thanks for this. As a first generation US citizen, there are times when I feel like maybe I fell short and should've aimed "higher", because I consider how easily programming comes to me that I figure it's easy for anyone, child's play compared to "hard" engineering and science like Physics, Electrical Engineering, or medical studies, law, etc. But it's true, like you said: the simple fact is that I love programming,…

++++1. Exactly my sentiments (also 1st gen US citizen here).

ghostoffuture, thank you for a most insightful comment.

Re: Do you really want to be making this much money when you're 50?

#274
post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Apparently you didn't read my comment all that well. Re-read, and catch the "there are locations" where the article would be correct. You are falling into the same trap as the author of the original article. Just because Denver metro (or the Valley, DC, Minneapolis or a couple of other tech/government centers) are doing well, you're extrapolating that the rest of the nation is the same. I know there are places where…

Of course "there are locations," there are always locations. It's hard to be an oil derrick worker in the middle of Manhattan, and that's not because the cost of living there is so high.

That's been my point all along. There are always going to be locations where the beer flows like wine. But that isn't everywhere.

New York state or New Jersey versus North Dakota right now might be a better analogy than Manhattan for a wildcatter. Sure, there are probably wells in NY and NJ, but the big money is in ND.

Re: Do you really want to be making this much money when you're 50?

#275
post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Apparently you didn't read my comment all that well. Re-read, and catch the "there are locations" where the article would be correct. You are falling into the same trap as the author of the original article. Just because Denver metro (or the Valley, DC, Minneapolis or a couple of other tech/government centers) are doing well, you're extrapolating that the rest of the nation is the same. I know there are places where…

why is everyone else's evidence anecdotal?

Just remember, scientific surveys are themselves types of "blessed" anecdotal evidence.

But you're correct. Since getting on this thread, I've been thinking of developing an empirical model to back up my statements. I have a gut understanding from my observations and discussions of what some of the factors would be. Could be interesting. I'll have to see if I've time to do so.

Re: Do you really want to be making this much money when you're 50?

#276
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think one of the problems with software engineering is that [almost] no one knows anything about it. I've been a working programmer [or software engineer if I've just met you at a party and I think you're cute] for long enough to work on >5 multi-billion dollar projects. Of these, one was delivered on time and according to spec. That company went down the toilet within four years. I've read fairly widely in the sof…

A multi-billion dollar project. I can't really imagine that. Are those ever executed by a single company all on its own? Are they software-only? Do they exist outside NASA?

Answers to your questions.

Execution: Generally no. There are sub-contractors, out-sourcing, COTS, etc. And there may be a program management team of companies.

Software only: The three I've worked on, no. Hardware, software, "mechanisms".

Outside of NASA: Yes, although the US government probably has the lock on the sheer number of such programs. Chip-makers, with fab plants, are one sector. Vehicle manufacturers (planes, trains and automobiles) are another. Construction--especially massive high-rises--is probably another.

Re: Do you really want to be making this much money when you're 50?

#277
Computer programming jobs in the USA have been in decline since 1990.

Stats from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (USA):

http://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/c...

2010 Median Pay $71,380 per year $34.32 per hour

Number of Jobs, 2010 363,100

Job Outlook, 2010-20 12% (About as fast as average)

Especially worth a look:

http://americawhatwentwrong.org/story/programming-jobs-fall/

"Over and over, Americans are told that education is the key to their job future. The more education you have, the better your shot at getting a job that pays middle-income wages to take care of your family. If we as a nation are better educated, the theory goes, we’ll be able to compete more effectively in the global economy, which in turn will generate more good jobs for everyone.

But some major flaws in this theory are playing out today in a field that was once thought to have the brightest future — information technology...

...In its 1990 Occupational Outlook Handbook, the U.S. Department of Labor was especially bullish: “The need for programmers will increase as businesses, government, schools and scientific organizations seek new applications for computers and improvements to the software already in use [and] further automation . . . will drive the growth of programmer employment.” The report predicted that the greatest demand would be for programmers with four years of college who would earn above-average salaries.

In 2000, the Labor Department predicted America would have 839,000 computer programming jobs by 2008. The department warned of competition from "programming businesses overseas where much routine work can be outsourced at a lower cost," but was nonetheless confident that "jobs for both systems and applications programmers should be plentiful." Things didn't quite work out that way. The number of programming jobs has fallen steadily, in part because of outsourcing.

When Labor made these projections in 1990, there were 565,000 computer programmers. With computer usage expanding, the department predicted that “employment of programmers is expected to grow much faster than the average for all occupations through the year 2005 . . .”

It didn’t. Employment fluctuated in the years following the report, then settled into a slow downward pattern after 2000. By 2002, the number of programmers had slipped to 499,000. That was down 12 percent–not up–from 1990. Nonetheless, the Labor Department was still optimistic that the field would create jobs–not at the robust rate the agency had predicted, but at least at the same rate as the economy as a whole.

Wrong again. By 2006, with the actual number of programming jobs continuing to decline, even that illusion couldn’t be maintained. With the number of jobs falling to 435,000, or 130,000 fewer than in 1990, Labor finally acknowledged that jobs in computer programming were “expected to decline slowly.” "

Re: Do you really want to be making this much money when you're 50?

#278
Stats from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (USA):

http://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/c...

2010 Median Pay $71,380 per year $34.32 per hour

Number of Jobs, 2010 363,100

Job Outlook, 2010-20 12% (About as fast as average)

Computer systems design and related services 32%

Information 12

Finance and insurance 7

Administrative and support services 6

Government 5

Especially worth a look:

http://americawhatwentwrong.org/story/programming-jobs-fall/

"Over and over, Americans are told that education is the key to their job future. The more education you have, the better your shot at getting a job that pays middle-income wages to take care of your family. If we as a nation are better educated, the theory goes, we’ll be able to compete more effectively in the global economy, which in turn will generate more good jobs for everyone.

But some major flaws in this theory are playing out today in a field that was once thought to have the brightest future — information technology...

...In its 1990 Occupational Outlook Handbook, the U.S. Department of Labor was especially bullish: “The need for programmers will increase as businesses, government, schools and scientific organizations seek new applications for computers and improvements to the software already in use [and] further automation . . . will drive the growth of programmer employment.” The report predicted that the greatest demand would be for programmers with four years of college who would earn above-average salaries.

Computer programming jobs decline

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Credits: Julie Snider, Investigative Reporting Workshop In 2000, the Labor Department predicted America would have 839,000 computer programming jobs by 2008. The department warned of competition from "programming businesses overseas where much routine work can be outsourced at a lower cost," but was nonetheless confident that "jobs for both systems and applications programmers should be plentiful." Things didn't quite work out that way. The number of programming jobs has fallen steadily, in part because of outsourcing.

When Labor made these projections in 1990, there were 565,000 computer programmers. With computer usage expanding, the department predicted that “employment of programmers is expected to grow much faster than the average for all occupations through the year 2005 . . .”

It didn’t. Employment fluctuated in the years following the report, then settled into a slow downward pattern after 2000. By 2002, the number of programmers had slipped to 499,000. That was down 12 percent–not up–from 1990. Nonetheless, the Labor Department was still optimistic that the field would create jobs–not at the robust rate the agency had predicted, but at least at the same rate as the economy as a whole.

Wrong again. By 2006, with the actual number of programming jobs continuing to decline, even that illusion couldn’t be maintained. With the number of jobs falling to 435,000, or 130,000 fewer than in 1990, Labor finally acknowledged that jobs in computer programming were “expected to decline slowly.” "

Re: Do you really want to be making this much money when you're 50?

#279

Computer programming jobs in the USA have been in decline since 1990. Stats from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (USA): http://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/c... 2010 Median Pay $71,380 per year $34.32 per hour Number of Jobs, 2010 363,100 Job Outlook, 2010-20 12% (About as fast as average) Especially worth a look: http://americawhatwentwrong.org/story/programming-jobs-fall/ "Over and over, Ameri…

Programmer is a distinct job from software developer.

http://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/s...

2010 Median Pay $90,530 per year $43.52 per hour

Number of Jobs, 2010 913,100

Job Outlook, 2010-20 30% (Much faster than average)

Employment Change, 2010-20 270,900

Re: Do you really want to be making this much money when you're 50?

#280
post #252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In that case I think "little or no certification" would be more appropriate. It does seem kind of strange that doctors, lawyers, electricians, plumbers, and barbers all have to take tests to get into (and sometimes remain in) their professions, but a programmer can write the software for a missle system, voting machine, or power plant with no certification whatsoever.

Possibly US-biased view? From my experience developer certificates are more common among developers than professional certificates among doctors.

Are there any countries where doctors don't need to be certified??
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