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Do you really want to be making this much money when you're 50?

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201–210 of 289 posts

Re: Do you really want to be making this much money when you're 50?

#201

Is anyone concerned that over the next 10+ years after many people realize how lucrative the work is that supply will catch up with demand?

It's happening already - a lot of my liberal-arts friends are retraining as programmers - but the thing is that it takes 10 years to develop expertise in a skill. So the market for good programmers will remain untouched for the foreseeable future, and that should give the alert ones plenty of time to skate to a different point in the value chain if market conditions start changing.

Re: Do you really want to be making this much money when you're 50?

#202
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think one of the problems with software engineering is that [almost] no one knows anything about it. I've been a working programmer [or software engineer if I've just met you at a party and I think you're cute] for long enough to work on >5 multi-billion dollar projects. Of these, one was delivered on time and according to spec. That company went down the toilet within four years. I've read fairly widely in the sof…

A multi-billion dollar project. I can't really imagine that. Are those ever executed by a single company all on its own? Are they software-only? Do they exist outside NASA?

The first project; the one that finished nearly on time, ran for three or four years. I joined half way through as a crispy graduate. It came in within a couple of weeks of schedule. It seemed very well managed for the whole of time on it. The project manager left that company, and went to work for Apple. When I googled him just now, all the top hits where at Microsoft. Perhaps he knows how to do software engineering. Or perhaps he got lucky that time. I don't know which.

The project developed a new CPU architecture, several variant implementations and ported several operating systems to that architecture. Amongst the more impressive feats I saw during that project:

- a compiler from assembler of architecture A to assembler of architecture B. This was necessary because we had a lot of code [~10^6 lines] in architecture A assembler - several other compilers that handled code written for A, with no thought to portability, and produced asm for B. - a modular emulation environment. Initially it ran on a larger example of A that had a programmable microcode feature. Later it was ported to other examples of A. Some of my colleagues were in the room when the ported OS first booted on a machine of type A with the funky microcode. As I recall, it took most of a day to reach the banner. - my own part was very modest, but I had fun. Amongst other things, I ported a disk checking utility [think fsck] from A to B. That was easy. To test it I had to create bad blocks for it to find. So I got a SCSI 1.44 floppy drive [!], and a box of new disks. Then I formatted and scratched each disk with a paperclip, and did a disk copy.

So, that was lots of bucks, hundreds of software engineers, and some number of hardware people. I don't know how many of the latter were involved. But remember that nearly everything was custom; CPUs obviously, boards, buses [though that was fixed eventually], bent metal, power supplies. The lot.

That was one fairly large company.

I've done other large projects that had many cooperating companies, usually with one or two large partners and a number of small outfits. Those involved similar sums, but a large part of that was in the equipment deployment, land purchase and so on. Not so much fun. I did once crash the wireless data network of New Zealand because a radio [or possibly an antenna] came loose on a mast and flapped around in the wind. Every time it swept through 120 degrees, all the effected clients channel hopped, provoking an exciting synchronisation bug in my multithreaded code.

Oh, and I got paid for all of it. Not as much as I would if I'd become a banker [though it's presumptuous to assume I _could_ become a banker]. I'd quite like the money, but then again I have more fun that the bankers I know. I've built software that was used [and is used] by fairly large numbers of people [if you're reading this, then you're one of them]. This is satisfying. Even it I can't call it 'engineering' with a clear conscience. If computer programming hadn't been invented, I don't know what would have become of me. There aren't that many other occupations for people with my particular blend of what I'll call talents. If you fall into that category too, then get your laughs while you can. You're a lucky person right now.

[and since it behoves me to actually answer the question, I've never done any work for a government or defence contractor. I've no particular objection, it just hasn't come along]

Re: Do you really want to be making this much money when you're 50?

#203
post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Farming is undergoing a similar talent crunch right now. If you are in the right parts of the world and have a little skill behind your name, you can easily make $50/hr as a farmhand. Food and tech is where investors are piling all their money right now. As both a software developer and farmer, I do fear what will happen when investments start going elsewhere.

I don't know what to make of this. In New Zealand, a farm hand will probably earn a bit more than someone working at McDonalds, and they'll work a lot more too.

I cannot speak to the economics of New Zealand specifically, but there is a huge difference between a skilled farmhand and a farmhand. I referred to the former in my earlier post.

A skilled farmhand is someone who has, well, skills. They probably have a commercial drivers licence, background in mechanical work or dealing with animals, and have spent a lot of time operating heavy equipment. Those kind of people are rare, but can be paid well when you find them.

Someone without skills on the farm will probably be paid as you describe no matter where the location.

Re: Do you really want to be making this much money when you're 50?

#204
post #120

The author is a bit naive in his cheerleading, extrapolating his situation in his location to a nation-wide situation. That is just simply not the case. As a business-owner in my mid-40's, I travel around quite a bit. There are locations where the employment picture is similar to what the author describes. But what he describes is far from the norm in the places I travel to, or from what I hear from friends and old c…

The ageism I saw is why I decided I didn't want to be in software development for the long term and left the field. I personally think the mentality is stupid and probably quite inefficient. In my field, law, they don't even let you into the courtroom until you're 5+ years in. Practicing law is an art and people with 20 years of experience are just better at it than people starting out. I never understood why so many…

I wouldn't argue for ageism, but I would say programming is different from law because technology changes much faster than law. There aren't giant paradigm shifts in law every 10 years.

A new technology may in fact be much more productive to work with than an old one. Does someone with COBOL experience have an advantage or a disadvantage in learning Python vs someone who is just starting? Which is larger, the amount of useful knowledge they bring along, or the amount they have to discard?

There are sage old programmers that I look up to. But there are also a lot who just burned out and quit, tired of the new technology treadmill. I'm not sure which I'll become.

Re: Do you really want to be making this much money when you're 50?

#205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A multi-billion dollar project. I can't really imagine that. Are those ever executed by a single company all on its own? Are they software-only? Do they exist outside NASA?

The NHS (Britain's state healthcare provider) famously had a project with a budget of £12.7bn (about $20bn). It wasn't entirely software although that was the main part. It famously fell apart, but billion-sized parts were handed off to companies like Accenture, British Telecom and Fujitsu: http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/mar/21/nhs-national-...

It's horrific. Some bits work and are implemented, other bits don't and wont ever work.

Connecting for Health (and all the rest) are the programmes that persuaded me that governments should just define a standard, and then let providers build software and clinicians buy software that conform to the standard.

There are lots of things wrong with email, but SMTP was pretty robust across a range of platforms for servers and clients for many years.

Re: Do you really want to be making this much money when you're 50?

#206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There would be computerized food transport, real world garbage collectors, pizza machines, miner droids and 3D plotters handling bricks for building. There is no reason you can't replace most of those human tasks with machines. And while we gradually do that, we'll need more and more programmers. Or maybe we will fail horribly, but not because it could not be done; and somebody will do this a few centuries later.

> There would be computerized food transport, real world garbage collectors, pizza machines, miner droids and 3D plotters handling bricks for building. This is sci-fi as for now, and for the foreseeable future. It's like someone in 1800 saying that the mailman is not needed anymore, because we could use electronic mail. Possible, but far off in the future. See the factories that make iPhones for example: some prefer…

We live in sci-fi. The only things withholding this sci-fi from happening: lack of competent workforce (programmers and roboengineers) and lack of vision. It's going to arrive.

Currently I'm a programmer not a politician, therefore social reasons are not my problem. My problem is converting as many tasks in the world to code. And that will keep me busy and pay me a salary.

We could have a program writing programs, but I won't bet on that. Somebody will still have to give it orders; and the guy giving orders to a program is a programmer by definition.

You will have a lot of programmers overseeing computers and robots do various tasks, and that would be the largest and busiest part of the workplace.

Re: Do you really want to be making this much money when you're 50?

#207
post #120

The author is a bit naive in his cheerleading, extrapolating his situation in his location to a nation-wide situation. That is just simply not the case. As a business-owner in my mid-40's, I travel around quite a bit. There are locations where the employment picture is similar to what the author describes. But what he describes is far from the norm in the places I travel to, or from what I hear from friends and old c…

The ageism I saw is why I decided I didn't want to be in software development for the long term and left the field. I personally think the mentality is stupid and probably quite inefficient. In my field, law, they don't even let you into the courtroom until you're 5+ years in. Practicing law is an art and people with 20 years of experience are just better at it than people starting out. I never understood why so many…

You have to understand that practicing law is not influenced by VC money as much as it is software development. Since VCs (and all these new incubators) have clear preference toward younger entrepreneurs, it is logical to expect that these kind of preference will be replicated in other segments of the market.

I think that VCs and incubators have very good reason to invest in mainly younger entrepreneurs, and they probably suggest to hire "the best, regardless of age" but ....

Re: Do you really want to be making this much money when you're 50?

#208
post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When companies that are large enough to spend "multi billion" dollars on a software project blow up "within 4 years" it makes the news. Like Enron. And Worldcom. And Lehman. Etc. And in those cases it's usually a very deep systemic rot. So I don't know how much all of that matters. I also echo the concerns below about the "multi-billion" comment. Did somebody just mention sometime that it's that expensive? Because th…

I'm curious, which company is that that did the largest electronic medical record rollout in the country? Sounds interesting.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fresenius_(company)

Re: Do you really want to be making this much money when you're 50?

#209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There would be computerized food transport, real world garbage collectors, pizza machines, miner droids and 3D plotters handling bricks for building. There is no reason you can't replace most of those human tasks with machines. And while we gradually do that, we'll need more and more programmers. Or maybe we will fail horribly, but not because it could not be done; and somebody will do this a few centuries later.

> There would be computerized food transport, real world garbage collectors, pizza machines, miner droids and 3D plotters handling bricks for building. This is sci-fi as for now, and for the foreseeable future. It's like someone in 1800 saying that the mailman is not needed anymore, because we could use electronic mail. Possible, but far off in the future. See the factories that make iPhones for example: some prefer…

>We live in sci-fi.

So were are our servant robots and flying cars?

>The only things withholding this sci-fi from happening: lack of competent workforce (programmers and roboengineers) and lack of vision.

That's too generic an accusation. One could say that about any problem.

>We could have a program writing programs, but I won't bet on that. Somebody will still have to give it orders; and the guy giving orders to a program is a programmer by definition. You will have a lot of programmers overseeing computers and robots do various tasks, and that would be the largest and busiest part of the workplace.

So, your vision of sci-fi future is conveniently constrained such that programmers are always needed and in large quantities.

Why seeing everything we currently do becoming automated as an easy task, and not also the overseeing of "computers and robots doing various tasks"? If you trust them to do the work, you can also trust them to do it correctly, and built the required self-correction routines.

Re: Do you really want to be making this much money when you're 50?

#210

I think this is a bit cynical (and dangerous) but agree with the premise that currently the number of programming opportunities continues to exceed the number of programmers. However there are signs that this is changing. I do know a programmer who became an IP attorney (doing well at it too) and a couple of programmers who have gone off to do entirely different things (one is a guide in Africa, another drives a tugb…

Tugboat pilots make way more money than programmers, but the responsibility is much greater. You don't want to lead a tanker crashed into shore.
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