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Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

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Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#51

Post by jondwillis »

ible wrote: post #5

People are not simple machines or animals. Unless AI becomes strictly better than humans and humans + AI, from the perspective of other humans, at all activities, there will still be lots of things for humans to do to provide value for each other. The question is how do our individuals, and more importantly our various social and economic systems handle it when exactly what humans can do to provide value for each oth…

Workshopping this tortured metaphor:

AI, at the limit, is a vampiric technology, sucking the differentiated economic value from those that can train it. What happens when there are no more hosts to donate more training-blood? This, to me, is a big problem, because a model will tend to drift from reality without more training-blood.

The owners of the tech need to reinvest in the hosts.

Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#52

Post by johnsmith1840 »

I mean it's hard to argue that if we invented a human in a box (AGI) human work would be irrelevent. But I don't know how we could watch current AI and anyone can say we have that.

The big thing this AI boom has showed us that we can all be thankful to have seen is what a human in a box will eventually look like. The first generation of humans to be able to see that is a super lucky experience to have.

Maybe it's one massive breakthrough away or maybe it's dozens away. But there is no way to predict when some massive breakthrough will occur Illya said 5-20 that really just means we don't know.

Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#55

Post by atleastoptimal »

websiteapi wrote: post #22

funny how we have all of this progress yet things that actually matter (sorry chess fans) in the real world are more expensive: health care, housing, cars. and what meager gains there are seem to be more and more concentrated in a smaller group of people. plenty of charts you can look at - net productivity by virtually any metric vs real adjusted income. the example I like are kiosks and self checkout. who has encoun…

Those are all expensive because of artificial barriers meant to keep their prices high. Go to any Asian country and houses, healthcare and cars are priced like commodities, not luxuries.

Tech and AI have taken off in the US partially because they’re in the domain of software, which hasnt bee regulated to the point of deliberate inefficiency like other industries in the US.

Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#56

Post by pbw »

This is food for thought, but horses were a commodity; people are very much not interchangeable with each other. The BLS tracks ~1,000 different occupations. Each will fall to AI at a slightly different rate, and within each, there will be variations as well. But this doesn't mean it won't still subjectively happen "fast".

Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#57

Post by jordwest »

traverseda wrote: post #35
ible wrote: post #5

People are not simple machines or animals. Unless AI becomes strictly better than humans and humans + AI, from the perspective of other humans, at all activities, there will still be lots of things for humans to do to provide value for each other. The question is how do our individuals, and more importantly our various social and economic systems handle it when exactly what humans can do to provide value for each oth…

I'd be more worried about the implicit power imbalance. It's not what can humans provide for each-other, it's what can humans provide for a handful of ultra-wealthy oligarchs.

Yeah, from the perspective of the ultra-wealthy us humans are already pretty worthless and they'll be glad to get rid of us.

But from the perspective of a human being, an animal, and the environment that needs love, connection, mutual generosity and care, another human being who can provide those is priceless.

I propose we break away and create our own new economy and the ultra-wealthy can stay in their fully optimised machine dominated bunkers.

Sure maybe we'll need to throw a few food rations and bags of youthful blood down there for them every once in a while, but otherwise we could live in an economy that works for humanity instead.

Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#58

Post by jsheard »

StilesCrisis wrote: post #30
jsheard wrote: post #18

Cost per word is a bizarre metric to bring up. Since when is volume of words a measure of value or achievement?

It also puts a thumb on the scale for AI, which tends to emit pages of text to answer simple questions.

The chart is actually words "thought or written" so I guess they are running up the numbers even more by counting Claudes entire inner monologue, on top of what it ultimately outputs.
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