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Running on Empty: Copper

thehonestsorcerer.substack.com

11–20 of 66 posts

Re: Running on Empty: Copper

#11

I think the author is speaking authoritatively about things they may be less familiar with, or where they really want to push a particular doomsday / degrowth agenda (the only prescription at the end the article is that we need to stop technological progress). This paragraph in particular caught my eye: > Bah! Who needs copper anyway, when we have so much aluminum?! > Have you thought about how aluminum is made? Well…

>This seems to be trying to say that we can't make aluminum without copper, but that seems nonsensical.

The far better argument is that, if it were simple to replace copper with aluminum, this would create a ceiling on the price of copper. However, this hasn't happened. Many applications of copper can theoretically be replaced by copper, but in practice the reactivity and thermal performance issues of aluminum can be challenging. Aluminum wiring in homes, for example, has a very bad reputation.

This isn't fatal, but it is a problem. And if society doesn't plan for it, it could become a more painful problem.

Re: Running on Empty: Copper

#12

Something I could use some clarification on: > Even though the industry would be willing to pay top dollar for each pound of metal delivered, there is simply not much more to be found. Copper bearing formations are not popping up at random, and there is no point in drilling various spots on Earth prospecting for deposits, either. The major formations have already been discovered, and thus the ever increasing investme…

The mining majors, BHP, Rio Tinto, et al have petabytes of surface geochemistry, samples, near surface magnetic maps that penetrate into the crust, 3D seismic maps, drill cores, technical reports on every mine ever, surrounding geology, and good models on where economic feasible (at particular price points) amounts of desirable metals can be found.

For example, there are only so many places significant masses of porphyry copper deposit will be found (although these aren't the only types of copper deposit).

For people interested in subscribing, there are databases such as the S&P portal that scratch some of that industry knowledge.

https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/market-insight...

although they seem to have backed off from a public page about the GIS portal to the mining databases they purchased.

So; pretty much most areas have been scratched - Antartica is still open, the Artic has possibilities .. but should we.

There are known untapped masses of copper, eg: in the US there's a mass that will take 64 years to mine .. that's on Apache land so, you know, it'll be US history all over again poking that one.

* US Supreme Court spurns Native American challenge to Rio Tinto's Arizona copper project - https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/us-supreme-court-spur...

Re: Running on Empty: Copper

#13

I think the author is speaking authoritatively about things they may be less familiar with, or where they really want to push a particular doomsday / degrowth agenda (the only prescription at the end the article is that we need to stop technological progress). This paragraph in particular caught my eye: > Bah! Who needs copper anyway, when we have so much aluminum?! > Have you thought about how aluminum is made? Well…

Indeed. Aluminum is actually a (far) superior conductor to copper per unit mass. It would be used on transmission lines even if it was the same price as copper, because the towers can be cheaper and farther apart. It's in increasing use in EVs due to the lower mass. Copper is still used when the conductive density matters, like the windings of an electric motor. But if copper prices increase further, manufacturers wi…

[deleted]

Re: Running on Empty: Copper

#14
post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know about other countries but in Canada, I can think of a few aluminum smelting operations and they're all geolocated in close proximity to hydroelectric dams.

Other countries are very much the same. Almost always located near giant hydroelectric generation facilities. Brazil + Russia are two big ones that come to mind. Probably China too.

Iceland has a massive amount of geothermal and hydroelectricity. A large portion of that electricity is exported in the form of aluminum.

Re: Running on Empty: Copper

#15
post #11

I think the author is speaking authoritatively about things they may be less familiar with, or where they really want to push a particular doomsday / degrowth agenda (the only prescription at the end the article is that we need to stop technological progress). This paragraph in particular caught my eye: > Bah! Who needs copper anyway, when we have so much aluminum?! > Have you thought about how aluminum is made? Well…

>This seems to be trying to say that we can't make aluminum without copper, but that seems nonsensical. The far better argument is that, if it were simple to replace copper with aluminum, this would create a ceiling on the price of copper. However, this hasn't happened. Many applications of copper can theoretically be replaced by copper, but in practice the reactivity and thermal performance issues of aluminum can be…

> Aluminum wiring in homes, for example, has a very bad reputation.

It has an undeserved bad reputation now, but it deserved the bad rep back in the 60s and 70s. The problem wasn’t solely the aluminum conductors themselves, it was also the terminals on wiring devices. The material the terminals and screws were made out of worked fine with copper, but the thermal expansion profile did not work well with aluminum conductors. That caused arcing and fires, so the wiring device manufacturers figured out a material that works well with both copper and aluminum for wiring device terminations. Wire manufacturers also made changes to ensure better terminations. If you look at the terminals of a light switch or receptacle, it will say Cu/Al on it, signifying it is suitable for use with either type of conductor.

This was solved 50 years ago, it’s similar to being scared of flying on a modern jetliner because the De Havilland Comet ripped itself apart in the 1950s due to the engineers not understanding the stresses from repeat pressurization cycles.

For existing installations of pre-1972 wire, you can buy splicing devices (similar to a WAGO lever nut) that connect to the aluminum conductors inside the box and allow you to connect a copper pigtail to the wiring device, you also have to use an anti-oxidant grease to prevent oxidation.

That being said, I’d still wire a house with copper because you can use #14 Cu for a 15A circuit but you need #12 Al for the same circuit, the NEC does not allow use of #14 Al romex.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aluminum_building_wiring

> In North American residential construction, aluminum wire was used for wiring entire houses for a short time from the 1960s to the mid-1970s during a period of high copper prices. Electrical devices (outlets, switches, lighting, fans, etc.) at the time were not designed with the particular properties of the aluminum wire being used in mind, and there were some issues related to the properties of the wire itself, making the installations with aluminum wire much more susceptible to problems. Revised manufacturing standards for both the wire and the devices were developed to reduce the problems. Existing homes with this older aluminum wiring used in branch circuits present a potential fire hazard.

Re: Running on Empty: Copper

#16
post #11

I think the author is speaking authoritatively about things they may be less familiar with, or where they really want to push a particular doomsday / degrowth agenda (the only prescription at the end the article is that we need to stop technological progress). This paragraph in particular caught my eye: > Bah! Who needs copper anyway, when we have so much aluminum?! > Have you thought about how aluminum is made? Well…

>This seems to be trying to say that we can't make aluminum without copper, but that seems nonsensical. The far better argument is that, if it were simple to replace copper with aluminum, this would create a ceiling on the price of copper. However, this hasn't happened. Many applications of copper can theoretically be replaced by copper, but in practice the reactivity and thermal performance issues of aluminum can be…

> Aluminum wiring in homes, for example, has a very bad reputation.

Not just in homes. The U50C tried aluminum wiring in railroad locomotives. That also got a bad reputation.

Re: Running on Empty: Copper

#17
Yet another author who does not understand the meaning of reserves vs resources. Reserves are are deposits that can be recovered at cost at current market price. Increase the price and miraculously, reserves increase. Like with most commodities, price spikes are followed by price drops as supply catches up. Remember when we were running out of lithium? Prices are down 90% from that peak.

Re: Running on Empty: Copper

#18

Yet another author who does not understand the meaning of reserves vs resources. Reserves are are deposits that can be recovered at cost at current market price. Increase the price and miraculously, reserves increase. Like with most commodities, price spikes are followed by price drops as supply catches up. Remember when we were running out of lithium? Prices are down 90% from that peak.

[deleted]

Re: Running on Empty: Copper

#19

I think the author is speaking authoritatively about things they may be less familiar with, or where they really want to push a particular doomsday / degrowth agenda (the only prescription at the end the article is that we need to stop technological progress). This paragraph in particular caught my eye: > Bah! Who needs copper anyway, when we have so much aluminum?! > Have you thought about how aluminum is made? Well…

> Second, all that electricity, even if you generate it with nuclear reactors, have to be delivered via copper wires.

This is indeed a massive red flag. You need conductors, but the material they are made of is pretty much irrelevant.

These days you'd have to search quite a bit to find not-ancient copper conductors in the larger electric grid. Aluminium might have a slightly higher resistance, but when you can just use a thicker wire it's almost always the more attractive choice.

If you don't even know that the grid mostly uses aluminium, you probably shouldn't be making big claims about what is and isn't possible with copper wiring.

Re: Running on Empty: Copper

#20
On aluminum, the author says:

> “renewables” cannot provide the stable current and carbon atoms needed to make the process possible

This is untrue. Iceland has a huge aluminum industry, using mainly geothermal power: https://energytransition.org/2023/03/geothermal-iceland-this...

Iceland alone accounts for 1/10th of global aluminum production! https://www.riotinto.com/en/operations/iceland/isal

You do need constant, reliable power, as even a brief interruption makes a huge mess when the aluminum/slag freezes in the processor.

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