*90% so far..
I've only been working with AI for a couple of months, but IMHO it's over. The Internet Age which ran 30 years from roughly 1995-2025 has ended and we've entered the AI Age (maybe the last age).
I know people with little programming experience who have already passed me in productivity, and I've been doing this since the 80s. And that trend is only going to accelerate and intensify.
The main point that people are having a hard time seeing, probably due to denial, is that once problem solving is solved at any level with AI, then it's solved at all levels. We're lost in the details of LLMs, NNs, etc, but not seeing the big picture. That if AI can work through a todo list, then it can write a todo list. It can check if a todo list is done. It can work recursively at any level of the problem solving hierarchy and in parallel. It can come up with new ideas creatively with stable diffusion. It can learn and it can teach. And most importantly, it can evolve.
Based on the context I have before me, I predict that at the end of 2026 (coinciding with the election) America and probably the world will enter a massive recession, likely bigger than the Housing Bubble popping. Definitely bigger than the Dot Bomb. Where too many bad decisions compounded for too many decades converge to throw away most of the quality of life gains that humanity has made since WWII, forcing us to start over. I'll just call it the Great Dumbpression.
If something like UBI is the eventual goal for humankind, or soft versions of that such as democratic socialism, it's on the other side of a bottleneck. One where 1000 billionaires and a few trillionaires effectively own the world, while everyone else scratches out a subsistence income under neofeudalism. One where as much food gets thrown away as what the world consumes, and a billion people go hungry. One where some people have more than they could use in countless lifetimes, including the option to cheat death, while everyone else faces their own mortality.
"AI was the answer to Earth's problems" could be the opening line of a novel. But I've heard this story too many times. In those stories, the next 10 years don't go as planned. Once we enter the Singularity and the rate of technological progress goes exponential, it becomes impossible to predict the future. Meaning that a lot of fringe and unthinkable timelines become highly likely. It's basically the Great Filter in the Drake equation and Fermi paradox.
This is a little hard for me to come to terms with after a lifetime of little or no progress in the areas of tech that I care about. I remember in the late 90s when people were talking about AI and couldn't find a use for it, so it had no funding. The best they could come up with was predicting the stock market, auditing, genetics, stuff like that. Who knew that AI would take off because of self-help, adult material and parody? But I guess we should have known. Every other form of information technology followed those trends.
Because of that lack of real tech as labor-saving devices to help us get real work done, there's been an explosion of phantom tech that increases our burden through distraction and makes our work/life balance even less healthy as underemployment. This is why AI will inevitably be recruited to demand an increase in productivity from us for the same income, not decrease our share of the workload.
What keeps me going is that I've always been wrong about the future. Maybe one of those timelines sees a great democratization of tech, where even the poorest people have access to free problem solving tech that allows them to build assistants that increase their leverage enough to escape poverty without money. In effect making (late-stage) capitalism irrelevent.
If the rate of increasing equity is faster than the rate of increasing excess, then we have a small window of time to catch up before we enter a Long Now of suffering, where wealth inequality approaches an asymptote making life performative, pageantry for the masses who must please an emperor with no clothes.
In a recent interview with Mel Robbins in episode 715 of Real Time, Bill Maher said "my book would be called: It's Not Gonna Be That" about the future not being what we think it is. I can't find a video, but he describes it starting around the 19:00 mark:
https://podcasts.musixmatch.com/podcast/real-time-with-bill-...
Our best hope for the future is that we're wrong about it.