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NVIDIA frenemy relation with OpenAI and Oracle

philippeoger.com

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Re: NVIDIA frenemy relation with OpenAI and Oracle

#52
post #16
post #3

The critiques of 'circular funding' don't really make sense to me. If you invest 20 billion and you get back 20 billion, your profit is the same. Sure your revenues look higher but investors have access to all that information and should be taking that into account, just like all the other financial data. Michael Burry is betting against AI growth translating into real profits as a whole, not the circular funding.

The problem is that stocks are often valued and traded on revenue growth, not profit[0] So circular funding generates stock price bumps when, as you said, there's no inherent value underneath. Creates a recipe for a crash. [0] consider pagerduty, incredibly profitable with little revenue growth. Trading at 1.5X revenue, where high revenue growth, unprofitable companies are trading at 10X revenue.

Its crypto wash trading.

Re: NVIDIA frenemy relation with OpenAI and Oracle

#54
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

SRAM scaling also hit a wall a while ago, so you can't really count on new processes allowing for significantly higher density in the future. That's more of a longer-term issue with the SRAM gambit that'll come into play after the DRAM shortage is over though - logic and DRAM will keep improving while SRAM probably stays more or less where it is now.

You can still scale SRAM by stacking it in 3D layers, similar to the common approach now used with NAND flash. I think HBM DRAM is also directly stacked on-die to begin with, apparently that's the best approach to scaling memory bandwidth too. It'll be interesting to see if we get any kind of non-NAND persistent memory in the near future, that might beat some performance metrics of both DRAM and NAND flash.

NAND is built with dozens of layers on one die. HBM DRAM is a dozen-ish dies stacked and interconnected with TSVs, but only one layer of memory cells per die. AMD's X3D CPUs have a single SRAM die stacked on top of the regular CPU+SRAM, with TSVs in the L3 cache to connect to the extra SRAM. I'm not aware of anyone shipping a product that stacks multiple SRAM dies; the tech definitely exists but it may not be economically feasible for any mass-produced product.

Re: NVIDIA frenemy relation with OpenAI and Oracle

#57
post #3

The critiques of 'circular funding' don't really make sense to me. If you invest 20 billion and you get back 20 billion, your profit is the same. Sure your revenues look higher but investors have access to all that information and should be taking that into account, just like all the other financial data. Michael Burry is betting against AI growth translating into real profits as a whole, not the circular funding.

if you invest 20 and get 20 then you got 0% profit

Depends on when 20 goes in and 20 comes out.

And how inflation and interest are accounted.

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