Has the cost of building software dropped 90%?
martinalderson.com
Has the cost of building software dropped 90%?
1–10 of 744 posts
Re: Has the cost of building software dropped 90%?
#2Feels almost too on-the-nose to write "Betteridge's Law of Headlines" but the answer is obviously no. Look no further than the farce of their made-up "graph" of cost over time with no units or evidence.
Re: Has the cost of building software dropped 90%?
#3Ask someone who builds software for a fee. Are you able to do 90% more? Fire 9/10 engineers? Produce 90% faster?
No, no, and no.
Re: Has the cost of building software dropped 90%?
#4Did I miss something or is there actually no evidence provided that costs have dropped?
Re: Has the cost of building software dropped 90%?
#5Good write-up. I don't disagree with any of his points, but does anybody here have practical suggestions on how to move forward and think about one's career? I've been a frontend (with a little full stack) for a few years now, and much of the modern landscape concerns me, specifically with how I should be positioning myself.
I hear vague suggestions like "get better at the business domain" and other things like that. I'm not discounting any of that, but what does this actually mean or look like in your day-to-day life? I'm working at a mid-sized company right now. I use Cursor and some other tools, but I can't help but wonder if I'm still falling behind or doing something wrong.
Does anybody have any thoughts or suggestions on this? The landscape and horizon just seems so foggy to me right now.
Re: Has the cost of building software dropped 90%?
#6Ask someone who builds software for a fee. Are you able to do 90% more? Fire 9/10 engineers? Produce 90% faster? No, no, and no.
It's even worse. If the cost drops by 90%, the corresponding productivity increase should be 900%, not 90%.
Re: Has the cost of building software dropped 90%?
#7Good write-up. I don't disagree with any of his points, but does anybody here have practical suggestions on how to move forward and think about one's career? I've been a frontend (with a little full stack) for a few years now, and much of the modern landscape concerns me, specifically with how I should be positioning myself. I hear vague suggestions like "get better at the business domain" and other things like that.…
Sheep farming sounds nice. Or making wooden furniture. Something physical.
Re: Has the cost of building software dropped 90%?
#8If you’re quicker then competition heats up management wants more done, efficiencies are soon forgotten and new expectations and baselines set.
Re: Has the cost of building software dropped 90%?
#9Did I miss something or is there actually no evidence provided that costs have dropped?
Well... evidence, but there's obviously a graph with a line going places!
Re: Has the cost of building software dropped 90%?
#10I don’t know if it’s 90%, but I’m shipping in 2 days things that took 2-4 weeks before.
Opus 4.5 in particular has been a profound shift. I’m not sure how software dev as a career survives this. I have nearly 0 reason to hire a developer for my company because I just write a spec and Claude does it in one shot.
It’s honestly scary, and I hope my company doesn’t fail because as a developer I’m fucked. But… statistically my business will fail.
I think in a few years there will only be a handful of software companies—the ones who already have control of distribution. Products can be cloned in a few weeks now; not long until it’s a few minutes. I used to see a new competitor once every six months. Now I see a new competitor every few hours.