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The "confident idiot" problem: Why AI needs hard rules, not vibe checks

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Re: The "confident idiot" problem: Why AI needs hard rules, not vibe checks

#41
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Human minds are more complicated than a language model that behaves like a stochastic echo.

Birds are more complicated than jet engines, but jet engines travel a lot faster.

They also kill a lot more people when they fail.

Re: The "confident idiot" problem: Why AI needs hard rules, not vibe checks

#42
Confident idiot: I’m exploring using LLM for diagram creation.

I’ve found after about 3 prompts to edit an image with Gemini, it will respond randomly with an entirely new image. Another quirk is it will respond “here’s the image with those edits” with no edits made. It’s like a toaster that will catch on fire every eighth or ninth time.

I am not sure how to mitigate this behavior. I think maybe an LLM as a judge step with vision to evaluate the output before passing it on to the poor user.

Re: The "confident idiot" problem: Why AI needs hard rules, not vibe checks

#44
- Claude, please optimise the project for performance.

o Claude goes away for 15 minutes, doesn't profile anything, many code changes.

o Announces project now performs much better, saving 70% CPU.

- Claude, test the performance.

o Performance is 1% _slower_ than previous.

- Claude, can I have a refund for the $15 you just wasted?

o [Claude waffles], "no".

Re: The "confident idiot" problem: Why AI needs hard rules, not vibe checks

#45
Aren't we just reinventing programming languages from the ground up?

This is the loop (and honestly, I predicted it way before it started):

1) LLMs can generate code from "natural language" prompts!

2) Oh wait, I actually need to improve my prompt to get LLMs to follow my instructions...

3) Oh wait, no matter how good my prompt is, I need an agent (aka a for loop) that goes through a list of deterministic steps so that it actually follows my instructions...

4) Oh wait, now I need to add deterministic checks (aka, the code that I was actually trying to avoid writing in step 1) so that the LLM follows my instructions...

5) : I came up with this precise set of keywords that I can feed to the LLM so that it produces the code that I need. Wait a second... I just turned the LLM into a compiler.

The error is believing that "coding" is just accidental complexity. "You don't need a precise specification of the behavior of the computer", this is the assumption that would make LLM agents actually viable. And I cannot believe that there are software engineers that think that coding is accidental complexity. I understand why PMs, CEOs, and other fun people believe this.

Side note: I am not arguing that LLMs/coding agents are nice. T9 was nice, autocomplete is nice. LLMs are very nice! But I am starting to be a bit too fed up to see everyone believing that you can get rid of coding.

Re: The "confident idiot" problem: Why AI needs hard rules, not vibe checks

#46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Determinism is not the issue. Synonyms exist, there are multiple ways to express the same message. When numeric models are fit to say scientific measurements, they do quite a good job at modeling the probability distribution. With a corpus of text we are not modeling truths but claims. The corpus contains contradicting claims. Humans have conflicting interests. Source-aware training (which can't be done as an afterth…

[flagged]

Less than 800 words, but more if you follow the link :)

https://arxiv.org/abs/2404.01019

"Source-Aware Training Enables Knowledge Attribution in Language Models"

Re: The "confident idiot" problem: Why AI needs hard rules, not vibe checks

#48

We are trying to fix probability with more probability. That is a losing game. Thanks for pointing out the elephant in the room with LLMs. The basic design is non-deterministic. Trying to extract "facts" or "truth" or "accuracy" is an exercise in futility.

The factuality problem with LLMs isn't because they are non-deterministic or statistically based, but simply because they operate at the level of words, not facts. They are language models. You can't blame an LLM for getting the facts wrong, or hallucinating, when by design they don't even attempt to store facts in the first place. All they store are language statistics, boiling down to "with preceding context X, mos…

Yeah, that’s very well put. They don’t store black-and-white they store billions of grays. This is why tool use for research and grounding has been so transformative.

Re: The "confident idiot" problem: Why AI needs hard rules, not vibe checks

#49

- Claude, please optimise the project for performance. o Claude goes away for 15 minutes, doesn't profile anything, many code changes. o Announces project now performs much better, saving 70% CPU. - Claude, test the performance. o Performance is 1% _slower_ than previous. - Claude, can I have a refund for the $15 you just wasted? o [Claude waffles], "no".

I’ve always found the hard numbers on performance improvement hilarious. It’s just mimicking what people say on the internet when they get performance gains

Re: The "confident idiot" problem: Why AI needs hard rules, not vibe checks

#50
Yeah I’ve found that the only way to let AI build any larger amount of useful code and data for a user that does not review all of it requires a lot of “gutter rails”. Not just adding more prompting, because it is an after-the-fact solution. Not just verifying and erroring a turn, because it adds latency and allows the model to start spinning out of control. But also isolating tasks and autofixing output keep the model on track.

Models definitely need less and less of this for each version that comes out but it’s still what you need to do today if you want to be able to trust the output. And even in a future where models approach perfect, I think this approach will be the way to reduce latency and keep tabs on whether your prompts are producing the output you expected on a larger scale. You will also be building good evaluation data for testing alternative approaches, or even fine tuning.

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