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The RAM shortage comes for us all

jeffgeerling.com

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Re: The RAM shortage comes for us all

#101

Post by fullstop »

MPSimmons wrote: post #89

This reminds me of the recent LaurieWired video presenting a hypothetical of, "what if we stopped making CPUs": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L2OJFqs8bUk Spoiler, but the answer is basically that old hardware rules the day because it lasts longer and is more reliable of timespans of decades. DDR5 32GB is currently going for ~$330 on Amazon DDR4 32GB is currently going for ~$130 on Amazon DDR3 32GB is currently goin…

If everyone went for DDR4 and DDR3, surely the cost would go up. There is no additional supply there, as they are no longer being made.

Re: The RAM shortage comes for us all

#102

Post by Analemma_ »

malfist wrote: post #92
hnuser123456 wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but if the price is being inflated by inflated demand, then the suppliers will just build more factories until they hit a new, higher optimal production level, and prices will come back down, and eventually process improvements will lead to price-per-GB resuming its overall downtrend.

Micron has said they're not scaling up production. Presumably they're afraid of being left holding the bag when the bubble does pop

Not just Micron, SK Hynix has made similar statements (unfortunately I can only find sources in Korean).

DRAM manufacturers got burned multiple times in the past scaling up production during a price bubble, and it appears they've learned their lesson (to the detriment of the rest of us).

Re: The RAM shortage comes for us all

#103

Post by fullstop »

jl6 wrote: post #97

Can someone explain why OpenAI is buying DDR5 RAM specifically? I thought LLMs typically ran on GPUs with specialised VRAM, not on main system memory. Have they figured out how to scale using regular RAM?

They're not. They are buying wafers / production capacity to make HBM so there is less DDR5 supply.

Re: The RAM shortage comes for us all

#105

Post by christkv »

MPSimmons wrote: post #89

This reminds me of the recent LaurieWired video presenting a hypothetical of, "what if we stopped making CPUs": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L2OJFqs8bUk Spoiler, but the answer is basically that old hardware rules the day because it lasts longer and is more reliable of timespans of decades. DDR5 32GB is currently going for ~$330 on Amazon DDR4 32GB is currently going for ~$130 on Amazon DDR3 32GB is currently goin…

A friend built a new rig and went with DDR4 and a 5800x3d just because of this as he needed a lot of ram.

Re: The RAM shortage comes for us all

#106

Post by selectodude »

bee_rider wrote: post #31
jsheard wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every type of DRAM is ultimately made at the same fabs, so if one type is suddenly in high demand then the supply of everything else is going to suffer.

Wait, really? For CPUs each generation needs basically a whole new fab, I thought… are they more able to incrementally upgrade RAM fabs somehow?

The old equipment is mothballed because china is the only buyer and nobody wants to do anything that the Trump admin will at some point decide is tariff-worthy. So it all sits.

Re: The RAM shortage comes for us all

#107

Post by petre »

rolandog wrote: post #70
ben_w wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The first "proper" "modern" computer I had, initially came with 8 megabytes of RAM. It's not a lot, but it's enough for a dumb terminal.

That's not disproving OP's comment; OpenAI is, in my opinion, making it untenable for a regular Joe to build a PC capable of running local LLM model. It's an attack on all our wallets.

Why do you need a LLM running locally so much that's the inflated RAM prices are an attack on your wallet? One can always opt not to play this losing game.

I remember when the crypto miners rented a plane to deliver their precious GPUs.

Re: The RAM shortage comes for us all

#108

Post by jl6 »

fullstop wrote: post #103
jl6 wrote: post #97

Can someone explain why OpenAI is buying DDR5 RAM specifically? I thought LLMs typically ran on GPUs with specialised VRAM, not on main system memory. Have they figured out how to scale using regular RAM?

They're not. They are buying wafers / production capacity to make HBM so there is less DDR5 supply.

OK, fair enough, but what are OpenAI doing buying production capacity rather than, say, paying NVIDIA to do it? OpenAI aren’t the ones making the hardware?

Re: The RAM shortage comes for us all

#109

Post by diabllicseagull »

MPSimmons wrote: post #89

This reminds me of the recent LaurieWired video presenting a hypothetical of, "what if we stopped making CPUs": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L2OJFqs8bUk Spoiler, but the answer is basically that old hardware rules the day because it lasts longer and is more reliable of timespans of decades. DDR5 32GB is currently going for ~$330 on Amazon DDR4 32GB is currently going for ~$130 on Amazon DDR3 32GB is currently goin…

a 2x16 ddr4 kit I bought in 2020 for $160 is now $220. older memory is relatively cheap but not cheaper than before at all.
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