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The RAM shortage comes for us all

jeffgeerling.com

31–40 of 416 posts

Re: The RAM shortage comes for us all

#31
post #15

Is this a shortage of every type of RAM simultaneously?

Every type of DRAM is ultimately made at the same fabs, so if one type is suddenly in high demand then the supply of everything else is going to suffer.

Wait, really? For CPUs each generation needs basically a whole new fab, I thought… are they more able to incrementally upgrade RAM fabs somehow?

Re: The RAM shortage comes for us all

#32
I just gathered enough money to build my new PC. I'll even go to another country to pay less taxes, and this spike hit me hard. I'll buy anyway because I don't believe it will slow down so soon. But yeah, for me is a lot of money

Re: The RAM shortage comes for us all

#33

32GB should be more than enough. You can go 16GB if you go native and throw some assembly in the mix. Use old school scripting languages. Debloat browsers. It has been long delayed.

I bought a motherboard to build a DIY NAS... takes DDR5 SO-DIMM RAM and only 16gb costs more than double the motherboard (which includes an intel processor)

Re: The RAM shortage comes for us all

#34

My understanding is that this is primarily hitting DDR5 RAM (or better). With prices so inflated, is there an argument to revert and downgrade systems to DDR4 RAM technology in many use cases (which is not so inflated)?

DDR 4 shot up too. It was bad enough that instead of trying to put together a system with the AM4 m/b I already have, I just bought a Legion Go S.

Re: The RAM shortage comes for us all

#36
I can't help but be the pessimist angle. RAM production will need to increase to supply AI data centers. When the AI bubble bursts (and I do believe it will), the whole computing supply chain, which has been built around it, will take a huge hit too. Excess production capacity.

Wonder what would happen if it really takes a dive. The impact on the SF tech scene will be brutal. Maybe I'll go escape on a sailboat for 3 years or something.

Anyway, tangential, but something I think about occasionally.

Re: The RAM shortage comes for us all

#37
I know this is mostly paranoid thinking on my behalf, but it almost feels like this is a conscious effort to attempt to destroy "personal" computing.

I've been a huge advocate for local, open, generative AI as the best resistance to massive take-over by large corporations controlling all of this content creation. But even as it is (or "was" I should say), running decent models at home is prohibitively expensive for most people.

Micron has already decided to just eliminate the Crucial brand (as mentioned in the post). It feels like if this continues, once our nice home PCs start to break, we won't be able to repair them.

The extreme version of this is that even dumb terminals (which still require some ram) will be as expensive as laptops today. In this world, our entire computing experience is connecting a dumb terminal to a ChatGPT interface where the only way we can interact with anything is through "agents" and prompts.

In this world, OpenAI is not overvalued, and there is no bubble because the large LLM companies become computing.

But again, I think this is mostly a dystopian sci-fi fiction... but it does sit a bit too close to the realm of possible for my tastes.

Re: The RAM shortage comes for us all

#38

My understanding is that this is primarily hitting DDR5 RAM (or better). With prices so inflated, is there an argument to revert and downgrade systems to DDR4 RAM technology in many use cases (which is not so inflated)?

DDR4 manufacturing is mostly shut down, so if any real demand picks starts there the prices will shoot up

Re: The RAM shortage comes for us all

#40

My understanding is that this is primarily hitting DDR5 RAM (or better). With prices so inflated, is there an argument to revert and downgrade systems to DDR4 RAM technology in many use cases (which is not so inflated)?

No DDR4 is affected too. It's a simple question of production and demand, and the biggest memory manufacturers are all winding down their DDR4/DDR5 memory production for consumers (they still make some DDR5 for OEMS and servers).
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