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Average DRAM price in USD over last 18 months

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Re: Average DRAM price in USD over last 18 months

#141

Post by imtringued »

pmontra wrote: post #131
Aurornis wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The big news story this cycle is that OpenAI secured two large contracts with two separate DRAM companies at the same time, carefully timing the deals so that neither DRAM company knew about the deal with other. Had either company known about the true demand from OpenAI they would have charged a lot more, but each only saw about half. In other words, there was no collusion between the DRAM manufacturers. They were bo…

And when demand eventually crashes, all the new production capacity is left without buyers to sell to, so maybe it does not even make sense to create it.

There won't be any new production capacity until DDR6 comes out. There is no point in investing into an obsolete technology like DDR5.

Re: Average DRAM price in USD over last 18 months

#142

Post by zozbot234 »

franga2000 wrote: post #136
zozbot234 wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's just surge pricing to manage demand, not "price gouging". Being able to buy RAM at high prices is a lot better than being unable to source it at all because everyone else is panic-hoarding.

Is it better? As with all price gouging, better for those who can afford it, sure, but not for those who can't. The proper way to combat scalping is to implement fair allocation methods (for a start purchase quantity limits) and punish people for scalping. Look at how most places handled war-time gasoline shortages. Rationing coupons, purchase limits, demand leveling (like the odd-even system), price or profit contro…

If you want to be "fair" for a necessity such as gasoline, you can have tradable rationing coupons. That way you are rewarded if you buy and use less gasoline, but the excess windfall due to the shortage is still transfered to you and away from the supplier. But even this assumes that gasoline is in fixed supply and there is no way of increasing its total production by paying more, which is not a very good assumption.

Re: Average DRAM price in USD over last 18 months

#143

Post by vegabook »

zarzavat wrote: post #62
ctoth wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Had Samsung known SK Hynix was about to commit a similar chunk of supply — or vice-versa — the pricing and terms would have likely been different Wouldn't this be ... collusion? Implicitly arguing that the memory oligopoly should have been coordinating is ... quite something. OpenAI may well be doing something anticompetitive by cornering supply to foreclose competitors, but saying "they tricked the suppliers into…

No, it's not collusion to ask for more money from OpenAI if you hear that they are trying to buy 40% of the world's supply. Increased demand leads to higher prices, that's normal. OpenAI, by doing simultaneous deals, hid the true demand from the suppliers, thus lowering their price and raising everyone else's.

A case could be made though that it is OpenAI who is operating illegally, attempting to corner the market.

Re: Average DRAM price in USD over last 18 months

#144

Post by sksksk »

Maxion wrote: post #138
Snoozus wrote: post #121

Maybe it's time we make a simple web page 100KB again? Is there some kind of CDN minification, adblocking and compression service? Maybe even server side rendering of websites? Then a smartphone would work fine with 1GB of RAM and everyone could be happy.

Simple web pages can be made small with modern tooling, e.g. AstroJS. The problem is that most web pages these days fundamentally are not simple. Rather than trying to make web pages small, the real effort would be in designing web pages to be simple. The large majority of software devs, PMs and the like don't really know how to do anything else than a Node + React webapp.

I've come to the opinion that for the vast majority of apps I've built, it could all be built using HTML + CSS (all built server side). I can sprinkle in little bits of interactivity using something like HTMX. And I'll have a website that is very easy to optimise, has phenomenal backwards compatibility, and gets rid of a whole class of issues associated with SPAs.

I often regret in my career not pushing back more on "requirements" that ended up requiring a more complicated app, whereas the customer would have been happier with a simpler solution.

Re: Average DRAM price in USD over last 18 months

#145

Post by AdieuToLogic »

platevoltage wrote: post #120
pprotas wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why did European prices have the same increase then?

I'm sure if they didn't keep the prices somewhat similar, you would have a bunch of people in Europe selling RAM to Americans.

> I'm sure if they didn't keep the prices somewhat similar, you would have a bunch of people in Europe selling RAM to Americans.

I was just about to edit my response to the GP to say the same thing. Let's explore this hypothetical situation a bit further.

Suppose there was a DRAM manufacturer named "Acme DRAM" which decided to have a separate pricing schedule for the EU reflecting the lack of insane US tariffs.

Some enterprising entrepreneur in the EU would establish a company in the country having the least US tariffs and resell Acme DRAM to US companies. Surely this would make money hand-over-fist.

Problem is, the US DoJ does not look kindly on this kind of enterprise:

  DOJ also has demonstrated a growing willingness to pursue 
  criminal charges against companies and individuals involved 
  in customs fraud schemes such as the purposeful 
  misclassification of goods, falsifying country-of-origin 
  declarations, and intentionally shipping goods through 
  low-tariff countries. Importers of goods into the U.S. 
  should expect criminal enforcement to accelerate in the 
  coming months and years.[0]
This would then put Acme DRAM in the crosshairs of an already vindictive and erratic US administration, likely to not only hammer the entrepreneur (see above) but to also include tariff ramifications for Acme DRAM as well.

All of this risk in the pursuit of lower profit margins by definition.

0 - https://natlawreview.com/article/what-every-multinational-co...

Re: Average DRAM price in USD over last 18 months

#146

Post by franga2000 »

zozbot234 wrote: post #142
franga2000 wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is it better? As with all price gouging, better for those who can afford it, sure, but not for those who can't. The proper way to combat scalping is to implement fair allocation methods (for a start purchase quantity limits) and punish people for scalping. Look at how most places handled war-time gasoline shortages. Rationing coupons, purchase limits, demand leveling (like the odd-even system), price or profit contro…

If you want to be "fair" for a necessity such as gasoline, you can have tradable rationing coupons. That way you are rewarded if you buy and use less gasoline, but the excess windfall due to the shortage is still transfered to you and away from the supplier. But even this assumes that gasoline is in fixed supply and there is no way of increasing its total production by paying more, which is not a very good assumption…

In a time of shortage, throwing more money at the problem usually won't increase supply. A shortage necessarily means that if you make more of something, you're guaranteed to sell it basically instantly, so there's already an incentive to increase production.

And it's not like the higher prices mean more money goes to the producers so they can invest in more production capacity. The price increase is spread out between every middleman in the chain untils there's almost nothing left. This could work only if the producers themselves are the ones raising prices, but then everyone else would still add their own cut, leading to even crazier price hikes, and also it's unlikely that extra profit would go to much more than lining the owners' pockets.

Additionally, demand spikes usually don't last, so any new production capacity you build will be a liability later, after the market settles down.

Re: Average DRAM price in USD over last 18 months

#147

Post by CraigJPerry »

energy123 wrote: post #127
CraigJPerry wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's speculative price gouging. Calling it "surge pricing" doesn't stop erosion of consumer trust in the market. Watch now as more people more readily jump to price fixing conclusions. Not helped by the inevitable further increase in speculation through feedback loops and the resultant volatility. First come first served is a better principle than "surge pricing". A lottery is a better principle than "surge pricing".…

> First come first served is a better principle than "surge pricing". This is called a price ceiling, and it's a bad idea with a track record of failure and significant harm. I'd rather pay extra and get what I need with 100% chance than get what I need cheaply with 5% chance and otherwise be forced to go without or buy from scalpers for the same price I would have paid anyways. This is the purpose of prices. So the…

> This is called a price ceiling

The act of eliminating surge pricing is not a price ceiling. That's a different thing. That requires more than simply swapping surge pricing with first come first served. You've created a strawman.

> I'd rather pay extra and get what I need with 100% chance

False dichotomy. Neither approach increases supply. Of course according to economists who can hand wave away bullwhip effects with simple "this model assumes X" statements that go unquestioned in the conversations which cite the findings of the given model but i digress. According to economists, both approaches do increase supply, the theory goes that the price gouging retailer invests in more factory capacity. Or the factory owner buoyed by vibrant secondary market activity views increased production investment as a safe bet. Maybe there's some truth in the latter...

> If you're concerned with wealth inequality

I'm concerned with lazy financial engineering over hard work. Why should the scrappy but innovative startup be excluded from resources over the sclerotic incumbent with a deeper wallet?

Re: Average DRAM price in USD over last 18 months

#149

Post by CraigJPerry »

Aurornis wrote: post #137
CraigJPerry wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's speculative price gouging. Calling it "surge pricing" doesn't stop erosion of consumer trust in the market. Watch now as more people more readily jump to price fixing conclusions. Not helped by the inevitable further increase in speculation through feedback loops and the resultant volatility. First come first served is a better principle than "surge pricing". A lottery is a better principle than "surge pricing".…

> First come first served is a better principle than "surge pricing" First come first serve must means enterprising individuals would buy as much as they could afford and then immediately relist it on Facebook Marketplace for the actual market rate. Thinking that retailers could keep RAM prices low and also keep it in stock for you is irrational.

>> Thinking that retailers could keep RAM prices low and also keep it in stock for you is irrational.

Not a claim i made

Re: Average DRAM price in USD over last 18 months

#150

Post by zozbot234 »

CraigJPerry wrote: post #147
energy123 wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> First come first served is a better principle than "surge pricing". This is called a price ceiling, and it's a bad idea with a track record of failure and significant harm. I'd rather pay extra and get what I need with 100% chance than get what I need cheaply with 5% chance and otherwise be forced to go without or buy from scalpers for the same price I would have paid anyways. This is the purpose of prices. So the…

> This is called a price ceiling The act of eliminating surge pricing is not a price ceiling. That's a different thing. That requires more than simply swapping surge pricing with first come first served. You've created a strawman. > I'd rather pay extra and get what I need with 100% chance False dichotomy. Neither approach increases supply. Of course according to economists who can hand wave away bullwhip effects wit…

The bullwhip effect is the whole reason why retailers may want to hold greater product stock in the first place; to absorb transient demand fluctuations and not have to pass them on in full to the supplier.

And a "scrappy but innovative" startup has an obvious interest in being able to source the DRAM or other goods they require, even at higher prices.

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