An Update from Elon Musk • Hacker News Board

Re: An Update from Elon Musk

#101

Post by jeremyarussell » Thu, Oct 04, 2012, 7:35 PM UTC

loceng wrote: post #77

chollida1 wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Really? That's the direction you took? You realize what Tesla is doing is going to destroy the oil economy - dependency on oil for cars - and practically eliminate the need to pay for re-fueling your car once you own it? Or is it that you just don't believe it? Calm down:) All I was responding to was a couple of comments about working for below average wages, bad work environment and the performance of Tesla's stoc…

Tesla are setting up Supercharger stations to refuel cars. From my understanding they are garage-port like things with solar panels on them, that recharge themselves. Solar cells can last a long time, and the technology will continue to improve. For climates with less sun there will likely need to be an alternate method of generating energy, though that will all be figured out. Read the following for details of I'm t…

If that's your proof for Tesla ruining the oil economy then your standing on thin evidence, as bandy said. The only people getting unlimited free charging are the people that just bought the new model S, AND they have to get to one of the stations. Also personally I could care less if the oil business's crash after Tesla becomes even cheaper and widespread. People may think global warming may or may not exist, but as I ride a bike to work, and breath all the car fumes that pass by, and get light headed just from that, well I'm not too worried about not having more gas burning cars around.

Re: An Update from Elon Musk

#102

Post by wes-exp » Thu, Oct 04, 2012, 7:58 PM UTC

ta12121 wrote: post #94

confluence wrote: post #51

I've been 100% long TSLA since the beginning and really don't understand the reasoning behind the doubts people have - given how little they actually know about a) the car industry and b) electric batteries and c) the ability to think on first principles and not by analogy. But I guess everyone has the right to an opinion - even if most of them aren't a) warranted b) backed up or c) logically reasoned. We are past pe…

You had me until fusion. As nice as fusion is on paper, there is so much cheap coal in the ground that it is economically unfeasible.

You know what's economically unfeasible? An unstable climate created by forever burning coal.

Re: An Update from Elon Musk

#103

Post by ta12121 » Thu, Oct 04, 2012, 8:34 PM UTC

wes-exp wrote: post #102

ta12121 wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You had me until fusion. As nice as fusion is on paper, there is so much cheap coal in the ground that it is economically unfeasible.

You know what's economically unfeasible? An unstable climate created by forever burning coal.

Externalities 50 or 100 years down the road tend to have little influence on economics. Parent strongly predicted commercial fusion in 30 years. That will not happen.

Re: An Update from Elon Musk

#104

Post by confluence » Thu, Oct 04, 2012, 8:47 PM UTC

pge wrote: post #96

confluence wrote: post #51

I've been 100% long TSLA since the beginning and really don't understand the reasoning behind the doubts people have - given how little they actually know about a) the car industry and b) electric batteries and c) the ability to think on first principles and not by analogy. But I guess everyone has the right to an opinion - even if most of them aren't a) warranted b) backed up or c) logically reasoned. We are past pe…

Given your thesis here, why do you think electric cars such as the chevy volt and nissan leaf have had such disappointing sales numbers? I was hoping that those two cars would be the beginning of a mainstream adoption of electric cars, but the car-buying public seems not to have embraced them. Curious if you had any thoughts why?

Because they suck.

Specifically their range - you must appease consumer's range anxiety otherwise you have a golf cart on your hands. Tesla does this.

Furthermore have you seen those cars? They are essentially undifferentiated from their ICE counterparts.

Re: An Update from Elon Musk

#105

Post by confluence » Thu, Oct 04, 2012, 8:50 PM UTC

ta12121 wrote: post #94

confluence wrote: post #51

I've been 100% long TSLA since the beginning and really don't understand the reasoning behind the doubts people have - given how little they actually know about a) the car industry and b) electric batteries and c) the ability to think on first principles and not by analogy. But I guess everyone has the right to an opinion - even if most of them aren't a) warranted b) backed up or c) logically reasoned. We are past pe…

You had me until fusion. As nice as fusion is on paper, there is so much cheap coal in the ground that it is economically unfeasible.

See here http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/ITER

Re: An Update from Elon Musk

#106

Post by confluence » Thu, Oct 04, 2012, 8:51 PM UTC

aidenn0 wrote: post #87

confluence wrote: post #51

I've been 100% long TSLA since the beginning and really don't understand the reasoning behind the doubts people have - given how little they actually know about a) the car industry and b) electric batteries and c) the ability to think on first principles and not by analogy. But I guess everyone has the right to an opinion - even if most of them aren't a) warranted b) backed up or c) logically reasoned. We are past pe…

Battery tech will not reach oil parity within the decade. Oil parity would be batteries with roughly 1/3 the energy density of oil (maybe 1/4 if you factor in the fact that electric motors are lighter than ICE motors). Predictions are hard, but I'm going to go on the record (and am willing to wager) saying that the batteries in EVs produced in 2012 will have an energy density lower than 9MJ/L. Ultimately that doesn't…

See here http://evworld.com/insider.cfm?archyr=2012&nextedition=3...

Re: An Update from Elon Musk

#107

Post by codex » Thu, Oct 04, 2012, 9:01 PM UTC

loceng wrote: post #3

I think people underestimate what an agile and lean startup like Elon seems to be running can accomplish. He's a super intelligent guy with a growing positive trackrecord. The vehicle industry has been waiting for disruption for 20+ years, and the giants finally have lost control and whatever unnatural advantages they tried to maintain. Technology for electric vehicles will only continue to improve, and costs will go…

I'm not sure a company that is losing $30M a month (or $400K per year per employee, of which there are 900) can be classified as lean--and possibly not agile, given that they spent a fortune creating the Roadster only to abandon it three years later as being too expensive, having sold only 2K copies. I'm sure it was a learning experience, but Tesla's burn rate is only increasing, so I hope they learned enough.

And, while SpaceX's rockets are undoutably advanced and very safe, they aren't currently the cheapest cost per pound sent into LEO; that honor belongs to the Russians:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_of_orbital_launch_sy...

SpaceX has some cheaper launches "in development" but they've already revised their initial prices upwards of 100% of what they claimed early on for their operational launches, so you really can't trust what they claim for in development vehicles.

Re: An Update from Elon Musk

#108

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Oct 04, 2012, 9:01 PM UTC

loceng wrote: post #3

I think people underestimate what an agile and lean startup like Elon seems to be running can accomplish. He's a super intelligent guy with a growing positive trackrecord. The vehicle industry has been waiting for disruption for 20+ years, and the giants finally have lost control and whatever unnatural advantages they tried to maintain. Technology for electric vehicles will only continue to improve, and costs will go…

[deleted]

Re: An Update from Elon Musk

#109

Post by ImprovedSilence » Thu, Oct 04, 2012, 9:48 PM UTC

mmagin wrote: post #98

stcredzero wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You would change the world if you were one of the first few employees at Apple, or nowadays if you are a high ranking executive/manager. Other than that, you're just a small piece in the engine. “Almost everything you do will seem insignificant, but it is important that you do it” --Mahatma Gandhi

I don't think Gandhi was suggesting people devote their life to working at Apple.

no, but it's the sum of seemingly un-important things that actually end up creating a great meaning. Be a part of it.

Re: An Update from Elon Musk

#110

Post by aidenn0 » Thu, Oct 04, 2012, 9:54 PM UTC

confluence wrote: post #106

aidenn0 wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Battery tech will not reach oil parity within the decade. Oil parity would be batteries with roughly 1/3 the energy density of oil (maybe 1/4 if you factor in the fact that electric motors are lighter than ICE motors). Predictions are hard, but I'm going to go on the record (and am willing to wager) saying that the batteries in EVs produced in 2012 will have an energy density lower than 9MJ/L. Ultimately that doesn't…

See here http://evworld.com/insider.cfm?archyr=2012&nextedition=3...

It doesn't matter if the customer never drives more than 195 miles, if they won't buy a car that can't go at least 300 miles.

[edit] Also I was specifically addressing battery vs. oil not ICEVs vs EVs