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An Update from Elon Musk

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Re: An Update from Elon Musk

#91

Post by grinich »

jpdoctor wrote: post #69
droithomme wrote: post #10

Musk's public statements are the nicest and most logical ones I've seen made by a modern CEO. No sense of spin. Always a pleasure to read.

> No sense of spin. What?! FTA: we expect Tesla to become cash flow positive at the end of next month. However, given that we do have a global supply chain and that floods, fires, hurricanes or earthquakes can cause supply chain interruptions and halt production, we thought it would make sense to raise capital to protect against such an event. Translation: "So we expect to be cash-flow positive, we won't spend the mo…

It's insurance. What he's saying is that the company is fragile right now, and any blip could very seriously harm their growth. The fundraising is a direct response to that risk analysis.

Otherwise, they would probably raise money later for a specific project requiring lots of capital (like a new vehicle, as mentioned).

Re: An Update from Elon Musk

#92

Post by jordanb »

codex wrote: post #37

As of last quarter, Tesla had $777M in assets and a whopping $715M in liabilities--leaving a net balance of only $64M. Given that their balance sheet is decreasing by an extraordinary $30M a month, that would have left only two months until the company was insolvent. No wonder the U.S. government wants their $465M paid back more quickly than planned. The company has lost over $850 million since being founded in 2003.

> The company has lost over $850 million since being founded in 2003.

I seem to recall that it takes the big 3 on the order of a billion dollars to bring a new automobile model to market. That includes the engineering, marketing, and the cost of tooling in the factories.

With that in mind, 850 million dollars doesn't strike me as being all that much capital for creating an entirely new automobile company.

Re: An Update from Elon Musk

#94

Post by ta12121 »

confluence wrote: post #51

I've been 100% long TSLA since the beginning and really don't understand the reasoning behind the doubts people have - given how little they actually know about a) the car industry and b) electric batteries and c) the ability to think on first principles and not by analogy. But I guess everyone has the right to an opinion - even if most of them aren't a) warranted b) backed up or c) logically reasoned. We are past pe…

You had me until fusion. As nice as fusion is on paper, there is so much cheap coal in the ground that it is economically unfeasible.

Re: An Update from Elon Musk

#95

Post by ta12121 »

stcredzero wrote: post #90
aidenn0 wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Battery tech will not reach oil parity within the decade. Oil parity would be batteries with roughly 1/3 the energy density of oil (maybe 1/4 if you factor in the fact that electric motors are lighter than ICE motors). Predictions are hard, but I'm going to go on the record (and am willing to wager) saying that the batteries in EVs produced in 2012 will have an energy density lower than 9MJ/L. Ultimately that doesn't…

> If you end up having a car that is a bit bigger and a lot heavier than an equivalent ICE car would be, you can still sell it. The Tesla Roadster was heavier than the Lotus car it was based on, but had quite respectable performance. That fact, combined with the electric car cachet was enough to sell it. If they can keep putting the batteries in the floor, they could consistently wind up with a roomier and more versa…

Respectable, but not as good, except for straight line speed, for more money. And I'm saying that as someone who'd love a Tesla Roadster.

Re: An Update from Elon Musk

#96

Post by pge »

confluence wrote: post #51

I've been 100% long TSLA since the beginning and really don't understand the reasoning behind the doubts people have - given how little they actually know about a) the car industry and b) electric batteries and c) the ability to think on first principles and not by analogy. But I guess everyone has the right to an opinion - even if most of them aren't a) warranted b) backed up or c) logically reasoned. We are past pe…

Given your thesis here, why do you think electric cars such as the chevy volt and nissan leaf have had such disappointing sales numbers? I was hoping that those two cars would be the beginning of a mainstream adoption of electric cars, but the car-buying public seems not to have embraced them. Curious if you had any thoughts why?

Re: An Update from Elon Musk

#97

Post by Domenic_S »

nmcfarl wrote: post #80
potatolicious wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hogwash. If you can't do something at a sustainable pace, you can't do it at all. In startup environments crunch time has a nasty tendency of becoming normal time, and you get nosediving morale, massively increased attrition, and lower overall productivity. It's lose-lose all around. So sure, in a startup you'd expect some late nights. When late nights become the norm though, you are now officially in dysfunctional c…

Hogwash. You can’t even start a new bank on bankers hours much less spaceship company, or more prosaically a restaurant. Companies are founded on the time and passion of their earliest members. Obviously burnout is a problem from day one, and the trick to building a company for the long haul is to move from zero to a monetarily sustainable enterprise while at the same time moving from insane hours to viable ones, and…

You're not really disagreeing with the GP.

A real big question, especially in startup-land, is when is a startup no longer a startup? When you offer health insurance? When you're cashflow positive? $1MM/yr? $10MM/yr?

It's really easy to justify the long nights with, "Well, we're a startup." And if you generate enough money with those long nights to KTLO and make sure paychecks don't bounce, it's hard to call it quits. But after N years, the "we're a startup" excuse gets old.

Re: An Update from Elon Musk

#98

Post by mmagin »

stcredzero wrote: post #89
coliveira wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I understand the geek/social effect of saying that you work for Apple or any other well perceived company, but get real: you're no changing the world. You would change the world if you were one of the first few employees at Apple, or nowadays if you are a high ranking executive/manager. Other than that, you're just a small piece in the engine. Maybe an independent developer is doing more to change the world than an e…

> You would change the world if you were one of the first few employees at Apple, or nowadays if you are a high ranking executive/manager. Other than that, you're just a small piece in the engine. “Almost everything you do will seem insignificant, but it is important that you do it” --Mahatma Gandhi

I don't think Gandhi was suggesting people devote their life to working at Apple.

Re: An Update from Elon Musk

#99

Post by wtallis »

jpdoctor wrote: post #69
droithomme wrote: post #10

Musk's public statements are the nicest and most logical ones I've seen made by a modern CEO. No sense of spin. Always a pleasure to read.

> No sense of spin. What?! FTA: we expect Tesla to become cash flow positive at the end of next month. However, given that we do have a global supply chain and that floods, fires, hurricanes or earthquakes can cause supply chain interruptions and halt production, we thought it would make sense to raise capital to protect against such an event. Translation: "So we expect to be cash-flow positive, we won't spend the mo…

"You don't do that when you are flush with cash."

How do you jump from "we're almost cash-flow positive" to "we're flush with cash"?

And isn't Tesla's situation a little too tenuous for them to be feeling sorry for diluting their shareholders? Making viable electric cars is their priority - not making their investors rich ASAP.

Re: An Update from Elon Musk

#100

Post by jeremyarussell »

coliveira wrote: post #73
jessep wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have a bunch of friends who work at Tesla. They do work hard, one of whom works waaaaay too hard, but it's meaningful work. They're changing the world. It's a similar feeling I get from people I know who work at Apple.

I understand the geek/social effect of saying that you work for Apple or any other well perceived company, but get real: you're no changing the world. You would change the world if you were one of the first few employees at Apple, or nowadays if you are a high ranking executive/manager. Other than that, you're just a small piece in the engine. Maybe an independent developer is doing more to change the world than an e…

Getting a similar feeling from Apple employees as Tesla employees doesn't mean Apple employees are really changing the world, it just means that the Apple employees genuinely believe that they are.
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