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OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

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Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#821

Post by cmiles8 »

qnleigh wrote: post #573
cmiles8 wrote: post #443

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anecdotally yes. Since launch I’ve observed probably 50% of the folks that were “ChatGPT those that” all the time suddenly talking about Gemini non-stop. The more that gets rolled into Google’s platform the more there’s point to using separate tooling from OpenAI. There’s a reason Sam is calling this “code red.”

Interesting. And these people weren't mostly techies? My impression has been that the further someone is from tech, the more likely they are to think that ChatGPT is synonymous with LLMs.

Mostly non-techies which surprised me. Like borderline tech illiterate folks talking about Gemini which really surprised me too. I can see why OpenAI is freaking out. They’ve massively overextended themselves financially, and if the base starts to slip even just a bit they’re in big trouble.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#822

Post by Glemkloksdjf »

farseer wrote: post #807
Glemkloksdjf wrote: post #766

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nvidia has everything they need to build the most advanced GPU Chip in the world and mass produce it. Everything. They can easily just do this for more optimized Chips. "easily" in sense of that wouldn't require that much investment. Nvidia knows how to invest and has done this for a long time. Their Ominiverse or robots platform isaac are all epxensive. Nvidia has 10x more software engineers than AMD

They still go to TSMC for fab, and so does everyone else.

For sure. But they also have high volumne and know how to do everything.

Also certain companies normally don't like to do things themselves if they don't have to.

Nonetheless nvidia is were it is because it has cude and an ecoysystem. Everyone uses this ecosystem and then you just run that stuff on the bigger version of the same ecosystem.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#823

Post by bionhoward »

staticman2 wrote: post #620
mvkel wrote: post #550

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not a rumor, it's confirmed by OpenAI. All "models" since 4o are actually just optimizations in prompting and a new routing engine. The actual -model- you are using with 5.1 is 4. Nothing has been pre-trained from scratch since 4o. Their own press releases confirm this. They call 5 their best new "ai system", not a new model https://openai.com/index/introducing-gpt-5/

New AI system doesn't preclude new models. I thought when GPT 5 launched and users hated it the speculation was GPT 5 was a cost cutting model and the routing engine was routing to smaller, specialized dumber models that cost less on inference? It certainly was much dumber than 4o on Perplexity when I tried it.

I think it’s more about deciding how much to think about stuff and not a model router per se. 5 and 5.1 get progressively better calibrated reasoning token budgets. Also o3 and “reasoning with tools” for a massive consumer audience was a major advance and fairly recent

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#824

Post by simmschi »

twothreeone wrote: post #174

The way I've experienced "Code Red" is mostly as a euphemism for "on-going company-wide lack of focus" and a band-aid for mid-level management having absolutely no clue how to meaningfully make progress, upper management panicking, and ultimately putting engineers and ICs on the spot to bear the brunt of that organizational mess. Interestingly enough, apart from Google, I've never seen an organization take the actual…

Fully agree. I've been through a number of code red panics in my career.

But somehow, even in startups with short remaining runway, "code red" rarely means anything.

You still have to attend all the overhead meetings, run through approval circles, deal with HR etc etc.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#825

Post by deaux »

hodgehog11 wrote: post #117
TechRemarker wrote: post #84

Heard all the news how Gemini 3 is passing everyone on benchmarks, so quickly tested and still find it a far cry from ChatGPT in real world use when testing questions on both platforms. But importantly the ChatGPT app experience at least for iPhone/Mac users is drastically superior vs Google which feels very Google still. So Gemini would have to be drastically better answer wise than ChatGPT to lure users from a bett…

That's really fascinating. Every real world use case I've tried on Gemini (especially math-related) absolutely slaughtered the performance of ChatGPT in speed and quality, not even close. As an Android user, the Gemini app is also far superior, since the ChatGPT app still doesn't properly display math equations, among plenty of other bugs.

You're using paid ChatGPT, set to 5.1 with Thinking?

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#826

Post by deaux »

kranke155 wrote: post #720
BeetleB wrote: post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually, it comes with the free plan. The $1.99 plan doesn't give you any more AI capabilities. Only at the $19.99/mo plan do you get more. https://one.google.com/about/#compare-plans

Well then the usage is already so useful in Free mode that I didn’t even notice it. “Thinking ” has a meaningful cap. But I have not felt the need to pay for more. I pay for Claude.

That must've changed very recently then, even just a month ago I'd have Gemini (2.5 Pro) run into a daily limit after just 3-4 messages as a free user.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#827

Post by threeducks »

octoberfranklin wrote: post #454
MikeTheGreat wrote: post #444

(My apologies if this was already asked - this thread is huge and Find-In-Page-ing for variations of "pre-train", "pretrain", and "train" turned up nothing about this. If this was already asked I'd super-appreciate a pointer to the discussion :) ) Genuine question: How is it possible for OpenAI to NOT successfully pre-train a model? I understand it's very difficult, but they've already successfully done this and they…

You don't train the next model by starting with the previous one. A company's ML researchers are constantly improving model architecture. When it's time to train the next model, the "best" architecture is totally different from the last one. So you have to train from scratch (mostly... you can keep some small stuff like the embeddings). The implication here is that they screwed up bigly on the model architecture, and…

I can not say how big ML companies do it, but from personal experience of training vision models, you can absolutely reuse the weights of barely related architectures (add more layers, switch between different normalization layers, switch between separable/full convolution, change activation functions, etc.). Even if the shapes of the weights do not match, just do what you have to do to make them fit (repeat or crop). Of course the models will not work right away, but training will go much faster. I usually get over 10 times faster convergence that way.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#828

Post by irthomasthomas »

arcanemachiner wrote: post #728
irthomasthomas wrote: post #725

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Deepseek scores Gold at IMO and IOI while GPT-5 scores Bronze. OpenAI now has to catch up to china.

...in a single benchmark.

No. Many benchmarks, I just mentioned those two as they where being bragged about by openai and Google when their internal models achieved gold.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#829

Post by aswegs8 »

alecco wrote: post #730
RossBencina wrote: post #532

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The SemiAnalysis article that you linked to stated: "OpenAI’s leading researchers have not completed a successful full-scale pre-training run that was broadly deployed for a new frontier model since GPT-4o in May 2024, highlighting the significant technical hurdle that Google’s TPU fleet has managed to overcome." Given the overall quality of the article, that is an uncharacteristically convoluted sentence. At the ris…

My reading in between the lines is OpenAI's "GPT-5" is really a GPT-4 generation model. And this is aligned with it being unimpressive. Not the promised leap forward Altman promised.

The only real change I noticed is it self censoring more than GPT-4.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#830

Post by ryukoposting »

qnleigh wrote: post #573
cmiles8 wrote: post #443

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anecdotally yes. Since launch I’ve observed probably 50% of the folks that were “ChatGPT those that” all the time suddenly talking about Gemini non-stop. The more that gets rolled into Google’s platform the more there’s point to using separate tooling from OpenAI. There’s a reason Sam is calling this “code red.”

Interesting. And these people weren't mostly techies? My impression has been that the further someone is from tech, the more likely they are to think that ChatGPT is synonymous with LLMs.

> My impression has been that the further someone is from tech, the more likely they are to think that ChatGPT is synonymous with LLMs.

This is still sorta true, but swap "LLM" for "chatbot." I mentor high school kids, and a lot of them use ChatGPT. A lot of them use AI summaries from Google Search. None of them use gemini.google.com.

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