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OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

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Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#701

Post by littlestymaar »

bloppe wrote: post #439
littlestymaar wrote: post #360

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd be a little bit more nuanced: I think there's something off with their plans right now: it's pretty clear at this point that they can't own the technological frontier, Google is just too close already and from a purely technological PoV they are much better suited to have the best tech in the medium term. (There's no moat and Google has way more data and compute available, and also tons of cash to burn without de…

The best way to drive inference cost down right now is to use TPUs. Either that or invest tons of additional money and manpower into silicon design like Google did, but they already have a 10 year lead there.

> The best way to drive inference cost down right now is to use TPUs

TPUs are cool, but the best leverage remains to reduce your (active) parameters count.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#702

Post by cpt_sobel »

jazzyjackson wrote: post #329
lanthissa wrote: post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

if you want to compete with google it seems like ad space is the single most important thing to push out quickly. no matter what openai does if its not accepting customers the ad budgets will flow to meta amaz and goog and be used as weapons against it.

If their endgame is competing with other ad brokers, what was all that talk of AGI for?

A trick to attract more investors most likely

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#703

Post by apples_oranges »

bilekas wrote: post #699

> Altman said the company will be delaying initiatives like ads, shopping and health agents, and a personal assistant, Pulse, to focus on improving ChatGPT It's so telling that they're delaying these "festures" because the know full well people don't want them.

I don't understand this view. I think most people would be happy to use the best models for free in exchange for seeing ads. That's basically what google and many others successfully do for decades.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#704

Post by sanjayjc »

sigmoid10 wrote: post #688
matwood wrote: post #683

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As others mentioned, 5T isn't money available to NVDA. It could leverage that to buy a TPU company in an all stock deal though. The bigger issue is that entering a 'race' implies a race to the bottom. I've noted this before, but one of NVDA's biggest risks is that its primary customers are also technical, also make hardware, also have money, and clearly see NVDA's margin (70% gross!!, 50%+ profit) as something they w…

Making the hardware is actually the easy part. Everyone and their uncle who had some cash have tried by now: Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, Huawei, Amazon, Intel - the list goes on and on. But Nvidia is not a chip company. Huang himself said they are mostly a software company. And that is how they were able to build a gigantic moat. Because noone else has even come close on the software side. Google is the only one who has…

Genuine question: given LLMs' inexorable commoditization of software, how soon before NVDA's CUDA moat is breached too? Is CUDA somehow fundamentally different from other kinds of software or firmware?

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#705

Post by usef- »

polishTar wrote: post #690
usef- wrote: post #623

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Youtube didn't either at the time. The front page was widely seen as garbage, and everyone I knew watched videos because they were embedded or linked from external sites. "If they introduced ads, people will just switch to other video hosts, wont they?". Many of the cooler creators used Vimeo. It was the good recommendation algorithm that came later, that I think allowed an actual network effect, and I don't remember…

That's a bit revisionist. Network effects were obvious when Google acquired Youtube. Google Video had the edge technically, but it didn't matter because Youtube had the users/content and Google saw that very clearly in their user growth before they made their offer.

I'm not sure about it having the edge, I thought Google video had a worse interface between them at the time. But that point feels eerily relevant anyway: a lot of normal people I see don't care if Claude/Gemini/etc are better models technically, they're comfortable with ChatGPT already.

A lot of YT's growth at the time was word of mouth and brand among the population, which is currently ChatGPT's position.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#706

Post by Phelinofist »

mvdtnz wrote: post #73
Phelinofist wrote: post #20

IMHO Gemini surpassed ChatGPT by quite a bit - I switched. Gemini is faster, the thinking mode gives me reliably better answers and it has a more "business like" conversation attitude which is refreshing in comparison to the over-the-top informal ChatGPT default.

> [Gemini] has a more "business like" conversation attitude which is refreshing in comparison to the over-the-top informal ChatGPT default. Maybe "business like" for Americans. In most of the world we don't spend quite so much effort glazing one another in the workplace. "That's an incredibly insightful question and really gets to the heart of the matter". No it isn't. I was shocked they didn't fix this behavior in v…

Not quite - I'm German :P

But as a sibling has said, the "super nice question homie" texts are not coming (as much) in Gemini as in ChatGPT (for me). I know that you can tune ChatGPTs persona, but that changed also the answer quality for me for the worse.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#707

Post by ipnon »

CamperBob2 wrote: post #405
alecco wrote: post #317

Earlier quoted context omitted.

SemiAnalysis said it last week and AFAIK it wasn't denied. https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/tpuv7-google-takes-a-s...

That is.... actually a seriously meaty article from a blog I've never heard of. Thanks for the pointer.

Dylan Patel founded Semianalysis and he has a great interview with Satya Nadella on Dwarkesh Patel's podcast.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#708

Post by matwood »

sigmoid10 wrote: post #688
matwood wrote: post #683

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As others mentioned, 5T isn't money available to NVDA. It could leverage that to buy a TPU company in an all stock deal though. The bigger issue is that entering a 'race' implies a race to the bottom. I've noted this before, but one of NVDA's biggest risks is that its primary customers are also technical, also make hardware, also have money, and clearly see NVDA's margin (70% gross!!, 50%+ profit) as something they w…

Making the hardware is actually the easy part. Everyone and their uncle who had some cash have tried by now: Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, Huawei, Amazon, Intel - the list goes on and on. But Nvidia is not a chip company. Huang himself said they are mostly a software company. And that is how they were able to build a gigantic moat. Because noone else has even come close on the software side. Google is the only one who has…

Are you saying that Google, Meta, Amazon, etc... can't do software? It's the bread and butter of these companies. The CUDA moat is important to hold off the likes of AMD, but hardware like TPUs for internal use or other big software makers is not a big hurdle.

Of course Huang will lean on the software being key because he sees the hardware competition catching up.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#709

Post by jimmydoe »

curioussquirrel wrote: post #673

This is probably not a core concern for most HN readers, but at work we do multilingual testing for synthetic text data generation and natural language processing. Emphasis on multilingual. Gemini has made some serious leaps from 1.5 to 2.5 and now 3.0, and is actually proficient in languages that other models can only dream of. On the other hand, GPT-5 has a really mixed performance in a lot of categories.

Very good to know. I use Gemini for many translation related work, the 1m windows is very helpful too.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#710

Post by verdverm »

dragonwriter wrote: post #667
reilly3000 wrote: post #665

Earlier quoted context omitted.

GCP is sort of blending this into their Gemini APIs. https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/google-search You don’t have to do RAG or use a serp scraper MCP, just add the Search Grounding tool to the APzi request and it does the rest at the model’s discretion and $0.014 / search. I think that’s generally a fair price for my time vs doing my own search queries at 1/100th the speed. It could get expensive for deep resea…

The pricing may be reasonable, but Grounding with Google Search has extremely restrictive terms of use. https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/terms#grounding-with-google...

yup, I looked at it GwGS and it's not interesting. I want actual results, not a summary and some links to sites (not pages), then to go crawl those pages

Don't want Google as the middleman between the internet and my agent. Their search has become so bad I don't even use it any more

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