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OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

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Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#651

Post by usef- »

usef- wrote: post #572
bloppe wrote: post #318

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be fair, I would get a ton of value out of someone selling dollars for 20 cents apiece. But ya, OAI is clearly making a ton of revenue. That doesn't mean it's a good business, though. Giving them a 20 year horizon, shareholders will be very upset unless the firm can deliver about a trillion in profit , not revenue, to justify the 100B (so far) in investment, and that would barely beat the long term s&p 500 average…

People did say the same thing about Youtube, which was unprofitable and extremely expensive to run in the early years. I remember thinking everyone would leave once ads were added. At youtube's ad income rate (~$13/year), the current (but growing) ~800 million chatgpt users would add ~$10 billion. At facebook's rate (~$40-50/year) $32-40 billion. Potentially, an assistant would be more integrated into your life than…

I suspect some of the downvoters hate the idea of ads, which is understandable.

But a lot of HN users use gmail, which has the same model. And there are plenty of paid email providers which seem far less popular (I use one). Ads didn't end up being a problem for most people provided they were kept independent of the content itself.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#652

Post by johncolanduoni »

willis936 wrote: post #230
an0malous wrote: post #176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> for these companies They’re absolutely going to get bailed out and socialize the losses somehow. They might just get a huge government contract instead of an explicit bailout, but they’ll weasel out of this one way or another and these huge circular deals are to ensure that.

This would trigger something that people in power would rather not trigger.

The shenanigans that set off the GFC were much more nakedly corrupt and didn’t have even a fig leaf of potential usefulness to anybody to justify them. The revolution failed to materialize then. If the AI bust isn’t worse for the median person than 2008, I don’t think people in power have anything to fear.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#653

Post by shridharxp »

echelon wrote: post #646
nickff wrote: post #321

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I recall reading that Google had similar 'delay' issues when crawling the web in 2000 and early 2001, but they managed to survive. That said, OpenAI seems much less differentiated (now) than Google was back then, so this may be a much riskier situation.

Google didn't raise at a $500 billion valuation. The 25x revenue multiple wouldn't be so bad if they weren't burning so much cash on R&D and if they actually had a moat. Google caught up quick, the Chinese are spinning up open source models left and right, and the world really just isn't ready to adopt AI everywhere yet. We're in the premature/awkward phase. They're just too early, and the AGI is just too far away. D…

There is no moat in selling/renting AI models. They are a commoditized product now. I can't imagine with what thought process did investors poured in such money on OpenAI.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#654

Post by acuozzo »

OutOfHere wrote: post #79
sometimes_all wrote: post #38

For regular consumers, Gemini's AI pro plan is a tough one to beat. The chat quality has gotten much better, I am able to share my plan with a couple more people in my family leading to proper individual chat histories, I get 2 TB of extra storage (which is also sharable), plus some really nice stuff like NotebookLM, which has been amazing for doing research. Veo/Nanobanana are nice bonuses. It's easily worth the mon…

I strongly advise never using Google's Drive storage. They're known to scan all content, and to disable all access if even a single file is "problematic", often misclassified by a bot. If you do use the storage, do backup all your files, and be ready to lose access at any time, with no way to reach any intelligent human.

Solution: Use Google Drive to backup a VeraCrypt volume?

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#655

Post by johncolanduoni »

dmead wrote: post #645
AlexCoventry wrote: post #580

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OpenAI is trying to revolutionize human industry. The money it can make from ads will be a rounding error, if they can pull that off.

People who believe this should be studied

Well, they didn’t say OpenAI was right. I think that a lot of the people working there believe that. It was kind of built into the original corporate/non-profit structure (that they since blew up).

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#656

Post by [deleted] »

searls wrote: post #305
felixfurtak wrote: post #213

OpenAI is basically just Netscape at this point. An innovative product with no means of significant revenue generation. One one side it's up against large competitors with an already established user base and product line that can simply bundle their AI offerings into those products. Google will do just what Microsoft did with Internet Explorer and bundle Gemini in for 'Free' with their already other profitable produ…

It would be funny if OpenAI turns for-profit, faceplants, and then finds new life (as Mozilla did) as a non-profit sharing its tools for free.

[deleted]

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#657

Post by johncolanduoni »

alephnerd wrote: post #490
bibimsz wrote: post #358

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the only thing power is concerned about is China dominating American in AI, because of the military and economic edge it would give them. Future wars will be AI fighting against AI.

Even Chinese leadership is somewhat skeptical about AI maximalism [0] with worries about "AI Washing" by enthusiastic cadre trying to climb rungs [1], and evoking Solow's Paradox [2]. There is still significant value in AI/ML Applications from a NatSec perspective, but no one is actually seriously thinking about AGI in the near future. In a lot of cases, AI from a NatSec perspective is around labor augmentation (how…

Pointing to Solow’s Paradox is kind of weird to me. Productivity growth accelerated in the 90s and 2000s, so it’s easy to tell a story where the computer age simply didn’t accelerate things until it had sufficiently penetrated the economy. If AI follows the same pattern, betting big on it still makes sense: China would probably be the predominant superpower if the computing developments of the 70s and 80s were centered there instead of the US.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#658

Post by shridharxp »

felixfurtak wrote: post #324
searls wrote: post #305

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would be funny if OpenAI turns for-profit, faceplants, and then finds new life (as Mozilla did) as a non-profit sharing its tools for free.

This is pretty much all that OpenAI is at the moment. Mozilla is a non-profit that is only sustained by the generous wealthy benefactor (Google) to give the illusion that there is competition in the browser market. OpenAI is a non-profit funded by a generous wealthy benefactor (Microsoft). Ideas of IPO and profitability are all just pipe dreams in Altmans imagination.

Few months ago, the founder was talking about "AGI" and ridiculous universal basic compute. At this point, I don't even know whom to believe. My first hand experience tells ChatGPT and even ClaudeCode are no where near the expertise they are touted to be. Yet, the marketing by these companies is so immense that you get washed away, you don't know who are agents and who are putting their true opinions.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#659

Post by dragonwriter »

binkHN wrote: post #568
alecco wrote: post #317

Earlier quoted context omitted.

SemiAnalysis said it last week and AFAIK it wasn't denied. https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/tpuv7-google-takes-a-s...

This is a really great breakdown. With TPUs seemingly more efficient and costing less overall, how does this play for Nvidia? What's to stop them from entering the TPU race with their $5 trillion valuation?

> What's to stop them from entering the TPU race with their $5 trillion valuation?

Valuation isn’t available money; they'd have to raise more money in the current, probably tighter for them, investment environment to enter the TPU race, since the money they have already raised that that valuation is based on is already needed to provide runway for what they are already doing without putting money into the TPU race

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#660

Post by ugh123 »

zubiaur wrote: post #588
oars wrote: post #494

Since the release of Google Gemini 3 two weeks ago, the seven-day moving average of ChatGPT's daily unique active users has declined by 6%. https://www.moomoo.com/news/post/62341840/why-has-openai-ini...

Kids off school for thanksgiving?

This guy parents.
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