471–480 of 960 posts
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The LPs are eyeing that $1 trillion IPO to dump on retail. They don't care what Sam says until then.
That ship has sailed. CNBC talks about the AI bubble and over-valuation every day. Retail investors won’t touch OpenAI. It’s increasingly looking like these LPs will be left holding the bag when the music stops.
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I don't think this is about Google. This is about advertising being the make or break moment for OpenAI. The problem with ChatGPT advertising is that it's truly a "bet the farm" situation, unlike any of their projects in the past: - If it works and prints money like it should, then OpenAI is on a path to become the next Mag 7 company. All the money they raised makes sense. - If it fails to earn the expected revenue n…
There is no moat in the models. The moat is in the UX. The problem is that OpenAI is far away from where the user is and not going to get there anytime soon. Google meanwhile is exactly where the user is. OpenAI IMHO is a dead company at this point. They are overvalued relative to the fundamentals and don't appear to have any way of getting the numbers to work in the timeframe that their investors will expect. They a…
I guess that's mostly true, but why does Jane Street get to have a moat in models but LLM companies can't? It feels like a structurally similar situation. The critical mass of research talent is somewhat of a moat in itself.
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To be fair, I would get a ton of value out of someone selling dollars for 20 cents apiece. But ya, OAI is clearly making a ton of revenue. That doesn't mean it's a good business, though. Giving them a 20 year horizon, shareholders will be very upset unless the firm can deliver about a trillion in profit , not revenue, to justify the 100B (so far) in investment, and that would barely beat the long term s&p 500 average…
I'd be a little bit more nuanced: I think there's something off with their plans right now: it's pretty clear at this point that they can't own the technological frontier, Google is just too close already and from a purely technological PoV they are much better suited to have the best tech in the medium term. (There's no moat and Google has way more data and compute available, and also tons of cash to burn without de…
I don't think ads are that easy, because the hard part of ads isn't taking money and serving up ad slop, it's providing convincing tracking and analytics.
As soon as ad slop appears a lot of customers will run - not all, but enough to make monetisation problematic.
The real code red here is less that Google just one-upped OpenAI but that they demonstrated there’s no moat to be had here. Absent a major breakthrough all the major providers are just going to keep leapfrogging each other in the most expensive race to the bottom of all time. Good for tech, but a horrible business and financial picture for these companies.
Absolutely. I don't understand why investors are excited about getting into a negative-margin commodity. It makes zero sense. I was an OpenAI fan from GPT 3 to 4, but then Claude pulled ahead. Now Gemini is great as well, especially at analyzing long documents or entire codebases. I use a combination of all three (OpenAI, Anthropic & Google) with absolutely zero loyalty. I think the AGI true believers see it as a win…
There's a lot more than money at stake.
Last week there we had a customer request that landed in our support on a feature that I partially wrote and wrote a pile of public documentation on. Support engineer ran customer query through Claude (trained on our public and internal docs) and it very, very confidently made a bunch of stuff up in the response. It was quite plausible sounding and it would have been great if it worked that way, but it didn't. While…
At some point you'll be better off with implementing features they hallucinated. Some people with public APIs already took this approach.
IMHO Gemini surpassed ChatGPT by quite a bit - I switched. Gemini is faster, the thinking mode gives me reliably better answers and it has a more "business like" conversation attitude which is refreshing in comparison to the over-the-top informal ChatGPT default.
Not a major complaint for technical work where you don't even want to do much multi turn conversation. Just an observation.
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There should already be a single priority for a company... Why is the bar so low for the billionaire magnate fuck ups? Might as well implement workplace democracy and be done with it, it can't be any worse for the company and at least the workers understand what needs to be done.
You think a company the size of OAI should have a single priority? That makes no sense, that’s putting all their eggs on one basket.
What can openai do that, even if their models lag behind, will let them keep their competitive advantage?
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SemiAnalysis said it last week and AFAIK it wasn't denied. https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/tpuv7-google-takes-a-s...
That is.... actually a seriously meaty article from a blog I've never heard of. Thanks for the pointer.
Google literally publish the attention paper. Have people not been paying attention? Google has been the only company I’ve been watching that really understands what they are doing.
Google literally publish the attention paper. Have people not been paying attention? Google has been the only company I’ve been watching that really understands what they are doing.
IMO Google struggles to productize things, so they sit on great ideas a while or do the wrong thing with them, but OpenAI really showed the way and Google can probably take it from here.