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OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

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Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#251

Post by bluecalm »

When I was playing poker for living there was a spreadsheet meme. There was always some guy who was losing consistently but declared everything will change from tomorrow because he now made a spreadsheet with an exact plan going forward. The spreadsheet usually contained general things like 8 hours of sleep, healthy food, "be disciplined", "study the game for 2 hours a day" etc.

Of course it never worked because if he knew what he should be doing he would be doing it already instead of hoping for spreadsheet magic to change the course.

>>There will be a daily call for those tasked with improving the chatbot, the memo said, and Altman encouraged temporary team transfers to speed up development.

Sam Altman clearly didn't get the memo.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#252

Post by riku_iki »

echelon wrote: post #223
ascorbic wrote: post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> An innovative product with no means of significant revenue generation. OpenAI has annualized revenue of $20bn. That's not Google, but it's not insignificant.

Every F500 CEO told their team "have an AI strategy ASAP". In a year, when the economy might be in worse shape, they'll ask their team if the AI thing is working out. What do you think happens to all the enterprise OpenAI contracts at that point? (Especially if the same tech layperson CEOs keep reading Forbes and hearing Scott Galloway dump on OpenAI and call the AI thing a "bubble"?)

> What do you think happens to all the enterprise OpenAI contracts at that point?

they will go to google if it wins the AI race.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#253

Post by ur-whale »

lateforwork wrote: post #228

OpenAI has already lined up enormous long-term commitments — over $500 billion through initiatives like Stargate for U.S. data centers, $250 billion in spending on Microsoft Azure cloud services, and tens of billions on AMD’s plan to deliver 6 GW of Instinct GPUs. Meanwhile, Oracle has financed its role in Stargate with at least $18 billion in corporate bonds plus another $9.6 billion in bank loans, and analysts expe…

> the incentives may shift if the alternative is a multi-company failure with national-security implications.

Sounds like a golden opportunity for GOOG to step over the corpse of OpenAI and take over for cents on the dollar all of the promises the now defunct ex-leader of AI made.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#255

Post by ur-whale »

wat10000 wrote: post #240
woopwoop wrote: post #224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe? But you could have written this same thing in 1999 with OpenAI and Google replaced by Google and Yahoo, respectively.

Google in 1999 was already far superior to Yahoo and other competitors. I don't think OpenAI is in a similar position there. It seems debatable as to whether they're even the best, let alone a massive leap ahead of everyone else the way Google was.

Agree.

And GOOG is not a one trick poney any more, by far, especially when it comes to revenue.

Can't say the same of OpenAI

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#256

Post by greedo »

lateforwork wrote: post #228

OpenAI has already lined up enormous long-term commitments — over $500 billion through initiatives like Stargate for U.S. data centers, $250 billion in spending on Microsoft Azure cloud services, and tens of billions on AMD’s plan to deliver 6 GW of Instinct GPUs. Meanwhile, Oracle has financed its role in Stargate with at least $18 billion in corporate bonds plus another $9.6 billion in bank loans, and analysts expe…

OpenAI doesn't have $500 billion in commitments lined up, it's promising to spend that much over 5 years... That's a helluva big difference than having $500B in revenue incoming.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#257

Post by strtok »

pphysch wrote: post #242
lateforwork wrote: post #228

OpenAI has already lined up enormous long-term commitments — over $500 billion through initiatives like Stargate for U.S. data centers, $250 billion in spending on Microsoft Azure cloud services, and tens of billions on AMD’s plan to deliver 6 GW of Instinct GPUs. Meanwhile, Oracle has financed its role in Stargate with at least $18 billion in corporate bonds plus another $9.6 billion in bank loans, and analysts expe…

Last week's announced Genesis Mission from the Department of Energy could be the vehicle for this bailout. 1. Government will "partner" (read: foot the bill) for these super-strategic datacenters and investments promised by OpenAI. 2. The investments are not actually sound and fail, but it's the taxpayer that suffers. 3. Mr. Altman rides off into the sunset.

[flagged]

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#259

Post by BeetleB »

TechRemarker wrote: post #84

Heard all the news how Gemini 3 is passing everyone on benchmarks, so quickly tested and still find it a far cry from ChatGPT in real world use when testing questions on both platforms. But importantly the ChatGPT app experience at least for iPhone/Mac users is drastically superior vs Google which feels very Google still. So Gemini would have to be drastically better answer wise than ChatGPT to lure users from a bett…

> But importantly the ChatGPT app experience at least for iPhone/Mac users is drastically superior vs Google which feels very Google still. So Gemini would have to be drastically better answer wise than ChatGPT to lure users from a better UI/UX experience to Gemini.

Yes, the ChatGPT experience is much better. No, Gemini doesn't need to make a better product to take market share.

I've never had the ChatGPT app. But my Android phone has the Gemini app. For free, I can do a lot with it. Granted, on my PC I do a lot more with all the models via paid API access - but on the phone the Gemini app is fine enough. I have nothing to gain by installing the ChatGPT app, even if it is objectively superior. Who wants to create another account?

And that'll be the case for most Android users. As a general hint: If someone uses ChatGPT but has no idea about gpt-4o vs gpt-5 vs gpt-5.1 etc, they'll do just fine with the Gemini app.

Now the Gemini app actually sucks in so many ways (it doesn't seem to save my chats). Google will fix all these issues, but can overtake ChatGPT even if they remain an inferior product.

It's Slack vs Teams all over again. Teams one by a large margin. And Teams still sucks!

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#260

Post by turnsout »

cmiles8 wrote: post #136

The real code red here is less that Google just one-upped OpenAI but that they demonstrated there’s no moat to be had here. Absent a major breakthrough all the major providers are just going to keep leapfrogging each other in the most expensive race to the bottom of all time. Good for tech, but a horrible business and financial picture for these companies.

Absolutely. I don't understand why investors are excited about getting into a negative-margin commodity. It makes zero sense.

I was an OpenAI fan from GPT 3 to 4, but then Claude pulled ahead. Now Gemini is great as well, especially at analyzing long documents or entire codebases. I use a combination of all three (OpenAI, Anthropic & Google) with absolutely zero loyalty.

I think the AGI true believers see it as a winner-takes-all market as soon as someone hits the magical AGI threshold, but I'm not convinced. It sounds like the nuclear lobby's claims that they would make electricity "too cheap to meter."

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