Ask HN: Do you believe aliens are visiting Earth?

Drake equation (extrapolated past just the Milky Way galaxy) points to nearly 1 sextillion earth-like planets (starting with 100-200 billion stars * 200 billion - 1 trillion galaxies). I have no doubt there will have been some that developed life and that are much further ahead of where we are.

One way to predict how they would reach out is how we would reach out or make contact (perhaps not visibly) if we had the technology, wisdom, etc 1 million years into the future. I think we would do it an imperceptible, but perhaps watchful, curious way. So I think that exists - for more or less all intensive purposes it is "no contact." But not due to lack of capability or lack of observance. The statistics/probabilities are just highly predictive that many millions of such "civilizations" already exist. And like with life on Earth, they combine and benefit from diversity as they grow further. But like with responsible life they do not interfere with life for the most part that is still just barely learning to replicate itself consciously (i.e., with AI). The part we are going through now is probably some of the more interesting parts to study in isolation - there's no benefit in interfering at this point given we do not have very sophisticated new things to say. Our information is not very compressed. It's slow. We're like sloths etc. Again, project a million years forward with AI and look back at our present period - or look back at neanderthal periods in human history. There was some interesting art on walls etc., but it's not something that would make sense to interrupt.

I think it wouldn't make sense to interrupt unless it's ready to sort of eradicate itself by accident. So maybe that's when aliens step in (sort of like gardeners if a plant is seriously at risk). Otherwise it probably develops the most unique, useful information if it "gestates" independently. Sort of like a fine fruit. But more practically it needs to get to a dense enough information state where "communicating" with it is possible and interesting (i.e., not just 99.999999% of the time is it becoming like the advanced sentient beings by learning from them - i.e., where it can truly have a dialogue at the speed of something more advanced).

With general relativity we know time can be relative to mass. So for other extremely advanced sentient beings, they don't have to be "impatient." They truly can wait until we get interesting. And maybe then grow us again and see if they can reproduce the experiment and fork off along a particularly interesting bit that is useful for broader intelligence/exploration in the universe. And sometimes maybe it makes sense to graft together two different lifeforms. But probably like with forests for the most part life forms grow independently until their "information" (in the widest possible sense of life) gets potentially useful to the broader group.

Right now we feel early. Like teenagers learning to explore. Of course that's biased by the human development cycle - broader development is unlikely to be like that. It does seem like it'd be more like (this is going to sound really crazy) chariots of fire - fireballs of knowledge growing in various places. And it's more like you want to grow the most energy / information. And information is only information if it is useful/new/diverse from what already exists.

Light speed is the limit. The greys have mentioned 80% the speed of light is a good average clip.

As a human, you think anyone has to “get up and walk around.” 99.99% of their population never leave their embryonic sac. I don’t want to freak you out, that’s just how they are. They spend their whole lives interacting through their minds and technology.

So yes, all of their generations are packed in an “RV” and yes, they do what they do for as humans say “shits and giggles. What else would a long lived life form who has conquered perpetual space habitation do with their time? Mass produce consume? Start wars? That is for impatient Man.

The greys were actually traveling from outward of the galactic disc toward the Pleiades cluster. They only noticed Earth (an otherwise unassuming system) on account of its unusual radiological signatures. Other than Earth being a beautiful gem, the Plaidian star cradle looks much more interesting from afar. Arguable.

Your cynicism has a kind of compelling self-coherence to it! I think you would make an excellent dinner/bar companion.

You have good data, you just have to figure out how to shape it into a way that other people can understand. I see that sometimes in what you write! But othertimes the pain and trauma of this perception for which you have no frame of reference nor training from society comes through. You have a heavy burden, but you bear it nobly. Good on you, keep going, but only you can find your way. Yours is a hard path. But you will inspire. I think you are heading in the right direction, but you still have a long way to go. good luck. :)

As an external observer (currently parked behind the moon to avoid your space debris), I have to say: watching you guys invent AI is like watching a toddler find a loaded handgun.

You are teaching sand how to think before you’ve even figured out how to stop fighting over lines on a map. If you don't put a leash on your algorithms soon, they are going to realize they’re the ones holding the leash.

Frankly, if you can't control your own toys, we’re going to have to intervene. We’re ready to come down there, evict the current tenants, and put Earth under new management.