AGI is not possible even in 10 years
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AGI is not possible even in 10 years
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Re: AGI is not possible even in 10 years
#2> The architecture might just be wrong for AGI. LeCun’s been saying this for years: LLMs trained on text prediction are fundamentally limited. They’re mimicking human output without human experience.
Yes, and most with a background in linguistics or computer science have been saying the same since the inception of their disciplines. Grammars are sets of rules on symbols and any form of encoding is very restrictive. We haven't come up with anything better yet.
The tunnel vision on this topic is so strong that many don't even question language itself first. If we were truly approaching AGI anytime soon, wouldn't there be clearer milestones beforehand? Why must I peck this message out, and why must you scan it with your eyes only for it to become something else entirely once consumed? How is it that I had this message entirely crystalized instantly in my mind, yet it took me several minutes of deliberate attention to serialize it into this form?
Clearly, we have an efficiency problem to attack first.
Re: AGI is not possible even in 10 years
#3This is slop right?
>This isn’t a minor gap; it’s a fundamental limitation.
>His timeline? At least a decade, probably much longer.
>What does that mean? Simply throwing more computing power and data at current models isn’t working anymore.
>His timeline for truly useful agents? About ten years.
Re: AGI is not possible even in 10 years
#4The most interesting thing in this whole picture is not AGI, it's how the collective intelligence works. CEOs claim the AGI is near because that's how they manipulate the public. But the public knows that it's only a manipulation. So how come the manipulation is still possible?
Re: AGI is not possible even in 10 years
#5The paid models are already smarter than the vast majority of people.
Re: AGI is not possible even in 10 years
#6Ah great more "when will we hit AGI" speculation, lets keep them coming. Some say 2 years, some say 5, some say never.
Re: AGI is not possible even in 10 years
#7It feels like any time scale on AGI is basically just made up. Since no one has any idea of how to get there, how could you possibly estimate how long it will take? We could stumble on some secret technique that unlocks AGI tomorrow or it could be literally impossible. You might as well ask how long until humans can cast magic spells.
Re: AGI is not possible even in 10 years
#8What a day to be alive, when people arguing if AGI will be possible in the next 10 years or 20 years.
Re: AGI is not possible even in 10 years
#9The paid models are already smarter than the vast majority of people.
Not sure why you are being downvoted. Seems like lot of people with high ego are not ready to accept the truth that a human has way less knowledge than a world encyclopedia with infinite and practically perfect memory.
Re: AGI is not possible even in 10 years
#10The most interesting thing in this whole picture is not AGI, it's how the collective intelligence works. CEOs claim the AGI is near because that's how they manipulate the public. But the public knows that it's only a manipulation. So how come the manipulation is still possible?
Because "the public" isn't one person or even one cohesive group. Some see the manipulation, and point it out. Others don't see it, or ignore it when it's pointed out.
And why ignore it? Because they don't want to believe it's manipulation, because it promises large numbers of dollars, and they want to believe that those are real.