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Voyager 1 is about to reach one light-day from Earth

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Re: Voyager 1 is about to reach one light-day from Earth

#211

Post by grvbck »

jonhohle wrote: post #189
ricardo81 wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agree. Voyager is probably considered by many to be one of our greatest achievements. It makes me wonder when we'll have anything set foot in another star system. I would guess realistically after 2100, but then we went from the Wright brothers to landing on the moon in under 70 years... so I may be proven wrong.

Space is so ridiculously big that I don't think it will ever happen. Back of the envelope math - 4.2 light years to the nearest star that's not the sun, current vehicles traveling about 10x the speed of voyager (e.g. 1 light day in 5 years). If something was launched today it would get to the nearest star system in about 7,660 years (assuming that star system also a radius of 1 light day). 100x faster than current (1…

> current vehicles traveling about 10x the speed of voyager

As I understand it, not really. Parker Solar Probe is crazy fast, but only because it has that trajectory, and is unable to just change course and keep that speed in other directions.

If you want to launch something for deep space, the Jupiter-Saturn slingshot is still the most powerful trajectory we know of.

Today's rocket engines would give the probe a higher initial speed, but the final velocity would not differ dramatically. A fair bit higher, but not orders of magnitude.

Re: Voyager 1 is about to reach one light-day from Earth

#212

Post by GMoromisato »

GalaxyNova wrote: post #161
GMoromisato wrote: post #145

The Voyagers are just the beginning. We can't see it yet, stuck as we are, in the present moment, filled with strife, failure, and disappointment. But the years and centuries to come will see us colonize the solar system, bringing new opportunities for millions, while easing the drain on Earth's ecosystem. How can I be so sure? Because in the long arc of history that is what we've always done. We went from Africa to…

That colonization was primarily driven by the need to obtain resources. Today and in the future, there is no reason to should send humans to gather resources when we can send robots to do it instead.

Past colonization happened because individuals made choices they felt would benefit them.

Even if the only goal of colonization is getting resources (which I dispute), some individuals will risk colonization to get resources that they can't obtain at home. Resources are not evenly distributed across a population and, and every piece of land is owned by someone, but not everyone owns land.

The cost of space travel will continue to drop, and at some point it will make sense for people to seek their fortune there.

Moreover, we didn't land on the moon in 1969 to get resources, and we're not going to land in the 2020s for resources. The reasons are complex, and not always logical, but they are definitely not about resources. I don't see any reason why that would change in a hundred years.

Re: Voyager 1 is about to reach one light-day from Earth

#213

Post by anomaly_ »

brandon272 wrote: post #199
switchbak wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think so. I wouldn't expect an AI to say " It’s proof that humans will build absurdly long-horizon projects anyway, even when the ROI is almost entirely knowledge and perspective" "the ROI is almost entirely knowledge and perspective" - this isn't a way I've ever heard an AI talk. And at a meta-level, accusing someone of being an AI is getting very boring and repetitive (admittedly, I've done it once), and I…

I think we should be vigilant against AI generated content. And I find it does read similar to the output of some locally hosted LLMs.

This sounds a lot like AI.

Re: Voyager 1 is about to reach one light-day from Earth

#214

Post by fooker »

jonhohle wrote: post #189
ricardo81 wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agree. Voyager is probably considered by many to be one of our greatest achievements. It makes me wonder when we'll have anything set foot in another star system. I would guess realistically after 2100, but then we went from the Wright brothers to landing on the moon in under 70 years... so I may be proven wrong.

Space is so ridiculously big that I don't think it will ever happen. Back of the envelope math - 4.2 light years to the nearest star that's not the sun, current vehicles traveling about 10x the speed of voyager (e.g. 1 light day in 5 years). If something was launched today it would get to the nearest star system in about 7,660 years (assuming that star system also a radius of 1 light day). 100x faster than current (1…

> Space is so ridiculously big that I don't think it will ever happen

You are underestimating acceleration. To travel and come to a stop at 4.2 light years, a spaceship with 1g acceleration barely needs 3.5 years in relativistic ship time (~6 years earth time).

The technology to sustain 1g acceleration through 3.5 years is a different story, but very much within our understanding of physics (and not warp drives, etc). 20-50 years of engineering can get us there.

Re: Voyager 1 is about to reach one light-day from Earth

#216

Post by brandon272 »

anomaly_ wrote: post #213
brandon272 wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think we should be vigilant against AI generated content. And I find it does read similar to the output of some locally hosted LLMs.

This sounds a lot like AI.

Mine? Not really

Re: Voyager 1 is about to reach one light-day from Earth

#217

Post by jeremyjh »

threethirtytwo wrote: post #109
jacobgkau wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I understand correctly, you're just basing that statement on climate change or war destroying us before we can do any better than Voyager, right? Because if we don't assume the destruction of humanity or the complete removal of our ability to make things leave Earth, then just based on "finite past vs. infinite future," it seems incredibly unlikely that we'd never be able to beat an extremely old project operating…

Many reasons why. The probability is based on many many many factors. What you mentioned is just a fraction of the factors. If we do ever reach that distance again it will be even less likely we do it for a third time.

I'm pretty bearish on human interstellar travel or even long-term settlement within our solar system but I wouldn't be so pessimistic on unmanned probes. The technical hurdles seem likely to be surmountable given decades or centuries. Economic growth is likely to continue so relative cost will continue to drop.

Absent a general decline in the capacity of our civilization the main hurdle I see is that the cost is paid by people who will not live to see the results of it but I don't think that rules it out, I'd certainly contribute to something like that.

What are some of the other factors you are thinking of?

Re: Voyager 1 is about to reach one light-day from Earth

#218

Post by setopt »

Forgeties79 wrote: post #208
alexose wrote: post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just spitballing, but maybe it would be possible with relatively modest advances in ion thrusters, and one (admittedly less-than-modest) breakthrough with fusion. It's maybe too speculative to even matter, but I don't think it's _crazy_ to imagine a handful of AI-fueled advances in materials discovery during the next decade or two. Possibly enough to unlock laser fusion, or something that could be crammed onto a spac…

> AI-fueled advances There is no amount of money in the world that would get me on the ChatGPT rocket

By "AI" they probably aren’t thinking about LLMs in this context.

Re: Voyager 1 is about to reach one light-day from Earth

#219

Post by johnwheeler »

danishSuri1994 wrote: post #159

It’s wild how Voyager forces two truths to sit together: Technically, what we’ve done is almost boringly modest. ~17 km/s ~1 light-day in ~50 years No realistic way to steer it anywhere meaningful now On cosmic scales it’s… basically still on our doorstep. Psychologically, it’s still one of the most ambitious things we’ve ever done. We built something meant to work for decades, knowing the people who launched it woul…

When I was around five years old, I was surprised to learn that all of our tax dollars weren't going to space exploration. For some reason, I intuited that was man's highest aspiration and we'd be throwing everything at it. Come to find it's all defense spending and printing money.

Re: Voyager 1 is about to reach one light-day from Earth

#220

Post by isolli »

jjk166 wrote: post #180
danishSuri1994 wrote: post #159

It’s wild how Voyager forces two truths to sit together: Technically, what we’ve done is almost boringly modest. ~17 km/s ~1 light-day in ~50 years No realistic way to steer it anywhere meaningful now On cosmic scales it’s… basically still on our doorstep. Psychologically, it’s still one of the most ambitious things we’ve ever done. We built something meant to work for decades, knowing the people who launched it woul…

This is not an example of nor even an attempt at long horizon thinking. Voyager wasn't built with the intention that it would last for decades. It was a rush job to take advantage of a very rare planetary alignment and it's primary mission was completed 12 years after it started. It is a testament to the ingenuity of the engineers who have worked and are still working on the project that they've managed to keep it to…

Also a testament to their foresight that it managed to send back useful data decades after the end of the mission, for instance when it crossed the heliosphere.
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