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Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

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Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#391

Jokes on them, my PC has had enough power to do what i need for the last decade and AI isnt moving the needle. Enjoy yohr number goes up fad.

What if your PC dies?

hrm, the only PCs I've had died was from a cursed case.

I did have a laptop die because I let it get a little wet.

But when you look at the history of memory, etc, it's certainly going to come back down once the bubble subsides.

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#392

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The firms can coordinate by agreeing on a strategy they deem necessary for the future of the industry.. Then, after the strategy succeeds, they have gotten addicted to the higher revenues, they do not allow prices to fall as fast as they should, their coordination becomes blatantly illegal.. So said and did the infamous Phoebus cartel, to unnaturally "fix" the prices and quality of light bulbs. https://spectrum.iee…

The Phoebus cartel didn't collude just to make the light bulbs have a shorter lifespan. They upped the standard illumination a bulb emitted so that consumers needed fewer of them to see well. With an incandescent you have a kind of sliding scale of brightness:longevity (with curves on each end that quickly go exponential, hence the longest lasting light bulb that's so dim you can barely read by its light). The bright…

Also lightbulb dimmers were a thing back in the day, so you could always buy more lightbulbs and lower the brightness of each to take advantage of that exponential curve in lifespan.

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#393
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think a better solution is exponential tax on a company size. I.e. once a company starts to earn above, say, 1 billion, it will be taxed by income by ever increasing amount. Or put it another way, use taxes to break the power law and winner takes effect all into a Gaussian distribution of company sizes.

> I think a better solution is exponential tax on a company size. I.e. once a company starts to earn above, say, 1 billion, it will be taxed by income by ever increasing amount. This is in the right spirit but you want two things to be different about it. The first is that the threshold for a given industry doesn't make sense as a dollar amount, it makes sense as a market share percentage. Having more than 15% market…

> And the second is that taxes create a perverse incentive for the government. You absolutely do not want the government to have even more of a financial incentive to sustain and create more of the companies of that size. What you want is to have fewer of them.

That's not really a convincing argument. The government is the body for setting up the economic rules, it is not bound by it. The government doesn't have revenue or profit. Money is created by the government, it doesn't have a value yet. The direct financing of actions through taxes is not done for the government, but a way for the government to project the costs of the governmental action into the economy. Sure, there are a lot of idiots now-a-days, that think a state should work like a business and make profits, but they are misled.

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#395

Earlier quoted context omitted.

it's cyclical. just wait 10 years

Good advice for the immortal. For everyone else, "do something else instead" is more practical.

I think it's somewhat useful long term advice, and I would add that parts prices tend to be asynchronous.

Building a PC in a cost efficient manner generally requires someone to track parts prices over years, buy parts at different times, and buy at least a generation behind.

The same applies to many other markets/commodities/etc...

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#396

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The firms can coordinate by agreeing on a strategy they deem necessary for the future of the industry.. Then, after the strategy succeeds, they have gotten addicted to the higher revenues, they do not allow prices to fall as fast as they should, their coordination becomes blatantly illegal.. So said and did the infamous Phoebus cartel, to unnaturally "fix" the prices and quality of light bulbs. https://spectrum.iee…

The Phoebus cartel didn't collude just to make the light bulbs have a shorter lifespan. They upped the standard illumination a bulb emitted so that consumers needed fewer of them to see well. With an incandescent you have a kind of sliding scale of brightness:longevity (with curves on each end that quickly go exponential, hence the longest lasting light bulb that's so dim you can barely read by its light). The bright…

Also, incandescent lightbulb lifespan is reduced by repeated power cycling. Not only is the legendary firehouse bulb very dim, it has been turned off and back on again very few times. Leaving all your lights on all the time would be a waste of power for the average household, and more expensive than replacing the bulbs more frequently.

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#397

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Intel's consumer processors (and therefore the mainboards/chipsets) used to have four memory channels, but around the year 2020 this was suddenly limited to two channels since the 12th generation (AMD's consumer processors had always two channels, with exception of Threadriper?). You need to re-check your sources. When AMD started doing integrated memory controllers in 2003, they had Socket 754 (single channel / 64…

At some point the best "enthusuast-oriented HEDT" CPU's will be older-gen Xeon and EPYC parts, competing fairly in price, performance and overall feature set with top-of-the-line consumer setups.

Based on historical trends, that's never going to happen for any workloads where single-thread performance or power efficiency matter. If you're doing something where latency doesn't matter but throughput does, then old server processors with high core counts are often a reasonable option, if you can tolerate them being hot and loud. But once we reached the point where HEDT processors could no longer offer any benefits for gaming, the HEDT market shrank drastically and there isn't much left to distinguish the HEDT customer base from the traditional workstation customers.

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#398

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, a wafer is very much not a wafer. DRAM processes are very different from making logic*. You don't just make memory in your fab today and logic tomorrow. But even when you stay in your lane, the industry operates on very long cycles and needs scale to function at any reasonable price at all. You don't just dust off your backyard fab to make the odd bit of memory whenever it is convenient. Nobody is going to do any…

Sure, yes the cost of producing a wafer is fixed. Opex didn’t change that much. Following your reasoning, which is common in manufacturing, the capex needed is already allocated. So, where does the 2x price hike come from if not supply/demand? The cost to produce did not go up 100%, or even 20% Actually, DRAM fabs do get scaled down, very similar to the Middle East scaling down oil production.

> So, where does the 2x price hike come from if not supply/demand?

It absolutely is supply/demand. Well, mostly demand, since supply is essentially fixed over shorter time spans. My point is that "cost per square mm [of wafer]" is too much of a simplification, given that it depends mostly on the specific production line and also ignores a lot of the stuff going on down the line. You can use to look at one fab making one specific product in isolation, but it's completely useless to compare between them or when looking at the entire industry.

It's a bit like saying the cost of cars is per gram of metal used. Sure, you can come up with some number, but what is it really useful for?

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#399

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unless I get all the resources I want, when I want, all at low prices, the market has obviously failed.

Yes, except unironically. A market that cannot efficiently serve the vast majority of the population is a failed market.

There's a great way to express the utility something has to you to get it. You can spend more money.

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#400
post #383

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Company prices resources within itself completely arbitrarily. How much the hour of work of an employee A is worth with the company and and how much using paperclip costs has no relation how much these things actually cost in the real money. Once they are acquired by company they are utilized not according to their value but to central plans instead. This way paperclip might get vastly overvalued and scarce while hou…

> Company prices resources within itself completely arbitrarily. I wouldn’t phrase it this way — to me, this implies unpredictability and/or a lack of rationale. Perhaps you simply mean “internal managers at companies do not necessarily price resources using market mechanisms” which I would agree with. Many fields of study give insight to the various kinds of distortions that arise from human psychology and negotiati…

> "internal managers at companies do not necessarily price resources using market mechanisms” which I would agree with.

Exactly, same as in centrally planned economy.

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