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Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

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Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#311

Post by 1970-01-01 »

>Samsung and its peers, SK hynix and Micron Technology, have redirected much of their fabrication capacity to high-end chips used in AI servers. While this shift yields higher margins, it leaves less capacity for traditional DRAM products that power laptops, desktops, and mainstream servers.

So if the AI bubble does pop in early 2026, you will get a tsunami of cheap server RAM. You still won't be able to find cheap PC RAM. So either way, the short term future of computing is firmly fixed in the cloud.

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#312

Post by justin66 »

Yokolos wrote: post #175
ajb wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Dram alternates between feast and famine; it's the nature of a business when the granularity of investment is so huge (you have a fab or you don't, and they cost billions -maybe trillions by now). So, it will swing back. Unfortunately it looks like maybe 3-5 years on average, from some analysis here: https://storagesearch.com/memory-boom-bust-cycles.html (That's just me eyeballing it, feel free to do the math)

I wouldn't be so sure. I've seen analyses making the case that this new phase is unlike previous cycles and DRAM makers will be far less willing to invest significantly in new capacity, especially into consumer DRAM over more enterprise DRAM or HBM (and even there there's still a significant risk of the AI bubble popping). The shortage could last a decade. Right now DRAM makers are benefiting to an extreme degree sin…

> The shortage could last a decade.

Do we really think the current level of AI-driven data center demand will continue indefinitely? The world only needs so many pictures of bears wearing suits.

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#313

Post by Aurornis »

phoboslab wrote: post #31
sbarre wrote: post #6

I'm so mad about this, I need DDR5 for a new mini-PC I bought and prices have literally gone up by 2.5x.. 128GB used to be 400$ in June, and now it's over $1,000 for the same 2x64GB set.. I have no idea if/when prices will come back down but it sucks.

I just looked at the invoice for my current PC parts that I bought in April 2016: I paid 177 EUR (~203 USD) for 32GB (DDR4-2800). It's kinda sad when you grow up in a period of rapid hardware development and now see 10 years going by with RAM $/GB prices staying roughly the same.

> It's kinda sad when you grow up in a period of rapid hardware development and now see 10 years going by with RAM $/GB prices staying roughly the same.

But you’re cherry picking prices from a notable period of high prices (right now).

If you had run this comparison a few months ago or if you looked at averages, the same RAM would be much cheaper now.

We’re just consuming a lot of DRAM in general.

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#314

Post by Jackson__ »

15155 wrote: post #275
Jackson__ wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not like apple is going to eat the cost of this for either though. As soon as their tariff supply runs out they'll price hike like everyone else.

Basically every integrated circuit is exempt from retaliatory tariffs, current custom MacBook Pros are shipping from China direct: which tariffs are you referring to?

I'm referring to the plane loads of hardware they shipped in during the tariff panic.

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#315

Post by Aurornis »

incompatible wrote: post #57
minkeymaniac wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doubled in the last 4 months https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o5Zc-FsUDCM Upgraded by adding 64GB.. last Friday I sold the 32 GB I took out for what I paid for the 64 GB in July... insane

Time to start scouring used-PC sales to reclaim the RAM and sell it for a profit?

If you can find used PCs being liquidated with DDR4 RAM that is fast enough for a modern build, then you might.

Old RAM that comes out of the PCs being sold at fire sale prices isn’t really in demand though. Even slower DDR4 grades aren’t seeing much demand.

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#316

Post by fullstop »

ajb wrote: post #109
sbarre wrote: post #6

I'm so mad about this, I need DDR5 for a new mini-PC I bought and prices have literally gone up by 2.5x.. 128GB used to be 400$ in June, and now it's over $1,000 for the same 2x64GB set.. I have no idea if/when prices will come back down but it sucks.

Dram alternates between feast and famine; it's the nature of a business when the granularity of investment is so huge (you have a fab or you don't, and they cost billions -maybe trillions by now). So, it will swing back. Unfortunately it looks like maybe 3-5 years on average, from some analysis here: https://storagesearch.com/memory-boom-bust-cycles.html (That's just me eyeballing it, feel free to do the math)

Historically, yes. But we haven't had historical demand for AI stuff before. What happens when OpenAI and NVIDIA monopolize the majority of DRAM output?

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#317

Post by lukeschlather »

justin66 wrote: post #312
Yokolos wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wouldn't be so sure. I've seen analyses making the case that this new phase is unlike previous cycles and DRAM makers will be far less willing to invest significantly in new capacity, especially into consumer DRAM over more enterprise DRAM or HBM (and even there there's still a significant risk of the AI bubble popping). The shortage could last a decade. Right now DRAM makers are benefiting to an extreme degree sin…

> The shortage could last a decade. Do we really think the current level of AI-driven data center demand will continue indefinitely? The world only needs so many pictures of bears wearing suits.

The pop culture perception of AI just being image and text generators is incorrect. AI is many things, they all need tons of RAM. Google is rolling out self-driving taxis in more and more cities for instance.

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#318

Post by selfhoster11 »

missedthecue wrote: post #134
testartr wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

why do you think allocating hardware to gamers is proper usage? maybe AI cures cancer, or at least writes some code

Unless I get all the resources I want, when I want, all at low prices, the market has obviously failed.

Yes, except unironically. A market that cannot efficiently serve the vast majority of the population is a failed market.

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#319

Post by justin66 »

lukeschlather wrote: post #317
justin66 wrote: post #312

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The shortage could last a decade. Do we really think the current level of AI-driven data center demand will continue indefinitely? The world only needs so many pictures of bears wearing suits.

The pop culture perception of AI just being image and text generators is incorrect. AI is many things, they all need tons of RAM. Google is rolling out self-driving taxis in more and more cities for instance.

Congrats on engaging with the facetious part of my comment, but I think the question still stands: do you think the current level of AI-driven data center demand will continue indefinitely?

I feel like the question of how many computers are needed to steer a bunch of self-driving taxis probably has an answer, and I bet it's not anything even remotely close to what would justify a decade's worth of maximum investment in silicon for AI data centers, which is what we were talking about.

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#320

Post by uncletscollie »

lukeschlather wrote: post #317
justin66 wrote: post #312

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The shortage could last a decade. Do we really think the current level of AI-driven data center demand will continue indefinitely? The world only needs so many pictures of bears wearing suits.

The pop culture perception of AI just being image and text generators is incorrect. AI is many things, they all need tons of RAM. Google is rolling out self-driving taxis in more and more cities for instance.

AI is needed to restart feudalism?
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