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Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

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Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#241

Post by nalinidash »

fooey wrote: post #114
ramshanker wrote: post #98

Somebody do the math on when we will reliably start running out of Grid Power. Than only this "AI builout" will slow down. Manufactiring generators is boring, and very less invested than manufacturing AI servers.

I wish I saw more people realizing the build out promising being made by the big AI are physically impossible not only is it impossible to build that much power generation on those timelines it's also not possible to build enough GPUs to fill a purported tripling of US datacenter capacity what's the ROI on giant empty warehouses full of empty server racks and no electricity?

That's why its increasingly more important to find answers how to build these models that work sustainably. The approach of training with HUGE amount of data requiring HUGE infra seems to have blinded the hype-bros that they are not planning to innovate to do it in a small-scale.

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#242

Post by lazide »

fragmede wrote: post #239
lazide wrote: post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tulips also grew and could be bred. The actual underlying models of productive output for these AI tools is a tiny fraction (actually) of the mania, and can be trivially produced at massive quantity without the spend that is currently ongoing. The big bubble is because (like with tulips back then), there was a belief in a degree of scarcity (due to apparent novelty) that didn’t actually exist.

Just like the beautiful woman who's luxury bag purchase she doesn't actually need, we can sit here and judge her for it, but at the end of the day it's not our money she's buying Louis Vuitton with, and we're not the one she's going home with.

Non sequitur of the day?

Anyone who owns shares in US companies (most people here) both are ‘going home with’ the companies involved, and are buying ‘the bags’.

Not to mention all the people buying the bonds used to fund the whole AI data center buildout, which is a ton of probably pension funds and old folks planning for retirement (also probably more than a few millionaire/billionaires!).

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#243

Post by Yokolos »

snuxoll wrote: post #209
Yokolos wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wouldn't be so sure. I've seen analyses making the case that this new phase is unlike previous cycles and DRAM makers will be far less willing to invest significantly in new capacity, especially into consumer DRAM over more enterprise DRAM or HBM (and even there there's still a significant risk of the AI bubble popping). The shortage could last a decade. Right now DRAM makers are benefiting to an extreme degree sin…

There's not a difference between "consumer" DRAM and "enterprise" DRAM at the silicon level, they're cut from the same wafers at the end of the day.

Yes, but if new capacity is also redirected to be able to be sold as enterprise memory, we won't see better supply for consumer memory. As long as margins are better and demand is higher for enterprise memory, the average consumer is screwed.

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#244

Post by noosphr »

lm28469 wrote: post #237
noosphr wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I disagree. We have been living on the investment of previous centuries and decades in the West for close to 40 years now. Everything is broken but that didn't matter because everything that needed a functioning physical economy had moved to the East. AI is the first industrial breakthrough in a century that needs the sort of infrastructure that previous industrial revolutions needed: namely a ton of raw power. The b…

Bridges can be used for decades, your brand new GiGaAiFaRm will be fully deprecated by 2030 already. All the infrastructure will be useless when the data centers move to the next city/state offering a tax cut.

A power line can be used for a century.

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#245

Post by immibis »

Yokolos wrote: post #243
snuxoll wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's not a difference between "consumer" DRAM and "enterprise" DRAM at the silicon level, they're cut from the same wafers at the end of the day.

Yes, but if new capacity is also redirected to be able to be sold as enterprise memory, we won't see better supply for consumer memory. As long as margins are better and demand is higher for enterprise memory, the average consumer is screwed.

Is there still a difference? I have DDR5 registered ECC in my computer.

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#246

Post by natebc »

fzeroracer wrote: post #66
testartr wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

why do you think allocating hardware to gamers is proper usage? maybe AI cures cancer, or at least writes some code

What do you think happens when the majority of consumers are priced not only out of bread, but also circuses?

History has told us it won't be good for the lords when that happens.

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#247

Post by immibis »

mrsilencedogood wrote: post #3

All I can say is, - the insane frothing hype behind AI is showing me a new kind of market failure - where resources can be massively misallocated just because some small class of individuals THINK or HOPE it will result in massive returns. Even if it squeezes out every single other sector that happens to want to use SDRAM to do things OTHER than buffer memory before it's fed into a PCIE lane for a GPU. - I'm really R…

The market failure results from those people having way more money than logic and economic principles dictate they should. A person would normally have to make a lot of good decisions in a row to get that much money, and would be expected continue making good decisions, but also wouldn't live long enough to reach these extreme amounts. However, repeated misallocation by the federal government over the last several decades (i.e. excessive money printing) resulted in people getting repeatedly rewarded for making the right kind of bad economic decisions instead.

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#248

Post by matthews3 »

david-gpu wrote: post #233
snuxoll wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's not a difference between "consumer" DRAM and "enterprise" DRAM at the silicon level, they're cut from the same wafers at the end of the day.

Doesn't the same factory produce enterprise (i.e. ECC) and consumer (non-ECC) DRAM? If there is high demand for the former due to AI, they can increase production to generate higher profits. This cuts the production capacity of consumer DRAM, and lead to higher prices in that segment too. Simple supply & demand at work.

At the silicon level, it is the same.

Each memory DIMM/stick is made up of multiple DRAM chip. ECC DIMMs have an extra chip for storing the error correcting parity data.

The bottleneck is with the chips and not the DIMMs. Chip fabs are expensive and time consuming, while making PCBs and placing components down onto them is much easier to get into.

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#249

Post by Yokolos »

immibis wrote: post #245
Yokolos wrote: post #243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, but if new capacity is also redirected to be able to be sold as enterprise memory, we won't see better supply for consumer memory. As long as margins are better and demand is higher for enterprise memory, the average consumer is screwed.

Is there still a difference? I have DDR5 registered ECC in my computer.

I mean, the only difference we care about is how much of it is actual RAM vs HBM (to be used on GPUs) and how much it costs. We want it to be cheap. So yes, there's a difference if we're competing with enterprise customers for supply.

I don't really understand why every little thing needs to be spelled out. It doesn't matter. We're not getting the RAM at an affordable price anymore.

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#250

Post by ant6n »

Roark66 wrote: post #235

I'm especially annoyed that this is most likely intentional. (Not at all)openAI saw they are getting behind their competitors (gpt 5 and 5.1 were progressively worse for my use case - actual problem solving and tweaking existing scripts) are getting better. (Claude and sonnet were miles ahead and I used gpt only due to lower price). Now not only open weights models like Qwen3 and kimik2 exceeded their capability and…

Uh, the argument ended in some sort of stroke there.

Kinda curious how the story

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